Don’t listen to today’s episode of The Daily unless you’re looking for a reason to jump off a bridge. NYT’s biggest poll to date show’s Warren likely losing in all six battlegrounds and Biden likely winning. She trails Biden by 6%. While I prefer Warren, there is no fucking way I’m giving up that kind of edge. This is so depressing because it confirms my intuition - Warren will lose the general. We can try to paint everything in a favorable light and delude ourselves or we can get Trump out of office.
Those polls are not very trustworthy. When you ask a respondent “how about X vs Trump l, how about Y vs Trump, how about Z vs Trump?” you are basically begging them to set a line somewhere in the middle. This is completely different than the mental process involved in the actual general election, which is more like “Ok it’s Y candidate or it’s Trump. Now watch them debate and campaign for many months, decide if you even feel motivated to vote for one of them, and then make your choice.”
Frankly, that sounds like even a worse prospect for Warren. These polls match my admittedly anecdotal observations of my friends who unanimously say they’ll vote for Biden but not Warren. Things may very well change, but as of now, I do think a vote for Warren is a vote for Trump.
If we as a country have sunk so low as to re-elect Trump over someone like Warren… we deserve what we get. I’m not going to worry about what others will do, and simply pick who I think is the best person for the job.
I am skeptical that “your friends” are representative of the entire electorate of the United States.
Hence the term “admittedly anecdotal,” but the NYT poll supposedly is.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard the “well then we deserve what we get” from frustrated Warren/Bernie supporters (of which I count myself one) when faced with the possibility that Biden is a more viable candidate. Would you really be willing to accept that outcome? Might it not potentially be worth it to compromise to get Trump out of office? I’m not saying things will stay as they are, but as of now, a vote for Warren is probably a vote for Trump. I don’t like it any more than you but 4 more years of Trump is unacceptable.
That’s ridiculous. We really don’t know, and can’t know, which candidate is stronger or weaker in the general, at this point.
But we can know who is polling better against Trump in the battleground states that are crucial to a D victory in 2020. And at this point that NYT poll is a strong indication that it isn’t Warren.
Look, I prefer Warren in many ways over Biden or pretty much any other candidate. But there is no way I’m willing to go all in on a nominee when we have data saying that would be a mistake. Fortunately we’re a good many months out from having to pick one person and stick with them. It appears to me Warren has alot of work to do in order to be able to carry those states in the general.
Polls this early mean almost nothing. Most of the country isn’t paying close attention to the candidates.
This is what the primary process is for - to see who has the best campaign skills. It’s not perfect, but it’s a lot better than going by polls a year before the election.
Have you really looked into this? Because the NYT article specifically said polls this far out are actually about as good as polls close to the election.
So why are you so sure we’re swimming in a sea of doubt?
That’s not much of an actual trend (sample size of 3?), especially when we’re talking about a single poll. Maybe those are right, or maybe the ones that said Warren was up on Trump nationally by 15 are right. Until Nate Silver has a tracker up with a % chance, it’s all a wild guess, IMO.
We’ll see.
You are kinda being silly. First of all, it is not a sample size of 3. It’s a trend over the last 3 elections involving dozens of surveys and seems to be trending that way now. And the NYT article did not in any way contradict that Warren isn’t doing better nationally. The whole friggin point is the Electoral College advantage Trump seems to have over Warren.
From one poll? Maybe. I’m skeptical that means anything more than a blip at this point. I’ll wait for Nate Silver.
…you are talking about the same New York Times that once had the headline “Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia?” I think that its perfectly fine to be “swimming in a sea of doubt” at the moment. I don’t think anyone is in the position to call the elections yet, let alone the primaries. If you want to think that the poll means Biden will absolutely defeat Trump then go ahead, but that’s a dangerous position to be taking if you ask me.
It’s certainly fair to be skeptical on polls and it’s still early to tell how things will develop, but if, for example, Biden is leading Warren against Trump by 6 points in battlegrounds at election time, would you be willing to take that risk? Polls aren’t perfect but they are our best guess. Even if you’re as far left as they come, surely you would believe the acceptibilty spread between Warren and Biden to be a hell of a lot narrower than between Biden and Trump, no?
I will consider my estimate of electability among other factors when I cast my ballot. Right now I believe there’s near zero solid data on which candidates are more or less likely to beat Trump. That may change in the future, and I will certainly reevaluate my support if that changes.