Yes, one of the things a lot of people seem to forget is that a big part of the GOP success on the federal level is based on their firm control of a lot of States. The States run the elections, and define the electoral maps, and that control has allowed State-level Republicans to tilt the scales in the GOP’s favor for many Federal offices.
But breaking that GOP control, and replacing it with this new party, is the work of multiple election cycles. Is Musk going to be happy waiting 12 or 16 years to finally have some actual influence on Congress? I think not.
I don’t know. He’s been flailing at FSD for about that long and shows no signs of giving up. I guess it helps that a large portion of his net worth would evaporate if he gives up that bone.
Particularly if that one person is constitutionally ineligible to be president. In order to get people elected he needs candidates, and any candidate with a real chance is going to want to run under one of the main parties.
The American Party has a significant chance (p>.05) of success, if success is defined as meeting certain goals. What those goals are is a matter of speculation.
Nate Silver:
On Sunday, an FEC filing appeared for the America Party, listing Vaibhav Taneja, the CFO of Tesla, as the party’s Treasurer and Custodian of Records. But as of press time for today’s newsletter, Musk hasn’t confirmed the filing, and some reports are uncertain whether this is authentic or someone is just trolling.
If some prankster filed papers listing Tesla’s CFO as party Treasurer, that’s a quality troll. Under such circumstances I say that the American Party is already a smashing success.
The second route is as spoiler. Some of the Senate races look like they could be close, and running someone who is MAGA-but-against-deficits could satisfy Musk’s alleged desire for revenge on Trump.
Nate Silver thinks Musk should hire smart consultants and engage in out-of-the-box thinking. That runs the very real risk of being absolutely hilarious.
Those inputs are alarming, but the outputs are even worse. The facility’s behemoth methane gas turbines increase Memphis’s smog by 30-60% as they belch planet-warming nitrogen oxides and poisonous formaldehyde around the clock, pollutants linked to respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Quoting SELC, “xAI has been operating dozens of unpermitted methane gas turbines without public notice, permits, or air pollution controls. The number of turbines and extent of their emissions likely make xAI the largest industrial source of smog-forming pollutant in Memphis.”
Exactly. If Musk is serious, he (or his new party) should not look for the top job. It should get a foothold in the House and Senate, where it can debate points using arguments that are neither Republican nor Democratic. Even eight to ten House seats, and to or three Senate seats would be enough to sway those bodies past the deadlock they seem to have.
Except this party is not likely to win those Senate/House seats. Instead it’ll probably split the MAGA vote and perhaps let a D win an otherwise R seat. Whether that happens depends on how red the district/state is.
And that’s why very few actual “professional” political operatives will join him, even if he throws a bunch of money at them. These guys want to win, and when your mostly likely best result is, ‘Well, we made that other guy lose’, that’s just not enough.
How much money would it take to get you to take a job, where you really, really care about the outcomes of your work, but you’re 99.9% sure you’ll fail to achieve your desired outcome?
The first part of your question–“how many of those were from people”–might be the more interesting part.
The point is, though, that as unpopular as Musk is, still more than a third of Americans approve of him. That’s a hundred mil or so. Saying he’s “popular with no one” is inaccurate.
That tips his hand and shows his party’s goal is strictly that of a spoiler. This isn’t about taking the country in a new direction or even Musk’s personal ambition. This is 100% retribution for the way Trump and the GOP discarded him like a used Kleenex after they got what they wanted from him.
I could see Fetterman and a few like-minded Democrats willing to entertain overtures from Musk, but overall feelings are way too raw right now for him to be able to gain much, if any, real traction in the Democratic Party. That, and the left these days are far less forgiving of past transgressions than the right.
The right doesn’t really seem to care all that much about your political history, so long as you’re currently parroting the proper talking points, which made the GOP an easier target for hostile takeover. Trump used to be pro-choice, he used to pal around with the Clintons, he once said, “In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat.” A couple of his primary opponents tried to make hay of his history in 2016, but I don’t see too many Republicans these days wringing their hands over that stuff.
The thing is, he wants to be a spoiler in Congress. He wants enough seats to play kingmaker for control of each chamber, and to pass or reject any bills.
But how does he accomplish that? Okay, he finds a few states and districts where the split is close enough to 50-50 that he can target the incumbent, and “win”. Except, can he?
Who is he going to appeal to? Let’s say the incumbent is a Republican who won 50.1% of the vote the last time. If Musk appeals to the Democratic voters, he loses just like they did. But if he appeals to the Republican voters, he’ll have to pull virtually all of them away from the incumbent, otherwise, the Democrat wins with the 49.9% they got the last time.
Sure, there’s a “middle way” of pulling votes from both sides, but what message would win enough votes that way to defeat both the GOP and Democratic parties?
He can play “spoiler” by making an incumbent’s life more difficult, but that won’t translate into seats in Congress. At best, he can expect a sarcastic, “Thanks Elon!” tweet from the Democrat as they plan to roll back all the shit Trump has pulled.
That’s not how a spoiler works. His party has no chance or aspirations of winning any seats; just doing damage to one side. There will be no kingmaker role or thanks from the Democrats who win races thanks to a right wing split; just a big fat “Fuck You!” to Trump and any chance he had of advancing his agenda in the second half of his term.
That’s kinda what I’m waiting for, too. It’s easy to say you’re against deficits, I want to see what his actual plan is to bring them down. If it involves increasing revenue by cutting taxes, I’ll laugh my ass off. That’s been a vote-getter for decades, but all ot does is drive deficits up.
Will Elon be announcing which House districts and Senate seats the America Party is after, or just a vague “eight to ten” and “two or three”? That would tell is a lot about his intentions.
Musk is a wild card, and I’m not willing to count him out, mainly because there are a lot of ways to have an effect when you are willing to dump $100 million + on off-year races.
Q: Are there any Senators running in 2026 that Musk personally dislikes? Most of the real Trump toadies are in the House.
Musk is a vain man and the vanity move is to run from the center. But a centrist could very well draw more votes from the Dems than from the GOP candidate. Musk has conflicting goals (largely psychological), which makes prediction a muddier proposition.
From wiki, here’s what the 2026 Senate race looks like:
Who is Musk going to take on? Jodi Ernst (R-Iowa)? Susan Collins (R-Maine) seems unlikely. Lindsey Graham (R-S Carolina)? Or we he simply jump into N Carolina and Ohio? I trust John Cornyn (R-Texas) is already in Musk’s pocket.
