# Elon Musk says 2026 for humans on Mars. Can any Government stop this madness **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 14, 2021, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972 "2021-04-14T14:33:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2021, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/162 "2021-04-18T12:18:13Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > I don’t think anyone is telling you that your personal tastes are bad. What I was saying earlier is that the concept of “hey, I’m on another world, millions of miles from Earth” gets old really really fast when there’s actually nothing to see. Thanks for the incredibly useful advice, no doubt borne from firsthand experience and not a 45-year-old grainy JPG ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2021, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/163 "2021-04-18T14:26:54Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Then I could take off the headset and still have a life. Not all of us have lives worth returning to. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2021, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/164 "2021-04-18T21:09:59Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > > [@wolfpup](#): > > > > I don’t think anyone is telling you that your personal tastes are bad. What I was saying earlier is that the concept of “hey, I’m on another world, millions of miles from Earth” gets old really really fast when there’s actually nothing to see. > > Thanks for the incredibly useful advice, no doubt borne from firsthand experience and not a 45-year-old grainy JPG It’s not “advice”, it’s a personal opinion posted in the course of what I thought was a civil discussion. Not sure what that burst of unprovoked hostility and snark was for. Tell you what, if your idea of fun is to go to Mars and not come back, I promise I’m not going to stand in your way. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2021, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/165 "2021-04-18T21:22:04Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > It’s not “advice”, it’s a personal opinion posted in the course of what I thought was a civil discussion. Not sure what that burst of unprovoked hostility and snark was for. I dunno, perhaps repeated browbeating about “it’s just a desert, you’ll live to regret it, buster” isn’t actually that civil? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2021, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/166 "2021-04-18T21:47:31Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > For your consideration: [Common Sense Sceptic: “Starship and Mars”](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-eVf9RWeoWEfSK9mjKe4E67IK1-1vZxB) I wasn’t expecting a lot from a channel with a name like that, and… it met expectations. I watched their “SN8 FLIGHT ANALYSIS” since that was about an event where we pretty much know what happened and don’t have to speculate. It’s so riddled with errors that I have very little hope for anything else on that channel. Several examples from before I got bored: > “a sea container bolted to raptors should have been able to achieve what they did” No, that’s absurd. The controlled descent was probably the most significant part of this test and thus the overall aerodynamics and body flaps were a crucial part. > “nothing at all in the nose cone” Again, false. A header tank was up there, in part to get the mass distribution right. > “more of an exhibition than a proof of concept” I don’t think this guy knows what a proof of concept is. Or an exhibition for that matter. > “Tim had to yell to his crew” (from 8 km away) This one is just deliberately deceptive; the guy mixes the sound from the nearby microphones with the sound from Tim speaking. And anyway, yeah, rockets are pretty loud. Has this guy ever been to a launch? > “smoke began billowing out” No, that’s water vapor from a LOX vent. And he’s not using “smoke” loosely here, he seems to think that it’s from something burning. It’s not (there are some things burning, but they aren’t producing the white cloud). > “it takes only moments for the Raptor to flame out” It didn’t “flame out”, it was deliberately shut off. Not only is this fairly obvious from the way the engine cleanly gimbaled away, and basic physics from the mass reduction, but we know from all the subsequent tests that the 3-2-1 Raptor sequence is all a part of their flight plan. > “an unknown something continues to burn for several minutes” Again, no. It’s still from the vented LOX. > “the three Raptors try to reignite” No, only two tried to light. They didn’t attempt to light all three for the final burn until later tests. I’m not going to waste more time on a guy making significant errors like twice a minute. ---
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2021, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/167 "2021-04-18T22:57:32Z")
I am all for sending humans to the moon, Mars and beyond. So many new and exciting ways to die. Certainly better than dying crossing the street or getting blown to pieces in some stupid war. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2021, 7:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/168 "2021-04-19T07:19:19Z")
Someone on the NASASpaceFlight forums put together this handy diagram: [![](https://i.imgur.com/VeNFWSv.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/VeNFWSv.png) All of those items were taken from the source selection statement. It’s actually quite remarkable how bad the Blue Origin and Dynetics proposals were. In both cases, the vehicles as submitted were actually impossible: Blue Origin because of the comm link design not closing, and Dynetics having a _negative_ mass budget. The SpaceX design definitely has some design risks, but they’re not even that bad relatively speaking. The other designs had their own problems with propellant handling and engine development. Not to mention vastly more expensive and apparently written by people that can’t seem to follow the bidding rules. I’m actually disappointed here that the competition was so bad. Under other circumstances I think it’d be valuable to have a second supplier, but it hardly seems worth it here. ---
**Author:** ![TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thegunismightierthanthepen/32/2981_2.png) [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheGunIsMightierThanThePen)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2021, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/169 "2021-04-26T16:38:52Z")
Welp, Musk says it right out loud: > **[Elon Musk On His Mars Landing Efforts: “A Bunch Of People Will Probably Die”](https://deadline.com/2021/04/elon-musk-on-mars-landing-efforts-a-bunch-of-people-will-probably-die-1234743102/)** > > Elon Musk is hosting Saturday Night Live in May. But no one is laughing at his latest statement. Musk made his prediction in an interview with Peter Diamandis, the founder and chairman of the X Pri… Glad to see there’s _some_ shred of truth to his bombastic statements after all. > [@](#): > > but insisted it would also be “a glorious adventure and it will be an amazing experience.” If you count slowly dying from oxygen leaks / radiation / food shortages an “amazing experience”, then sure, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/170 "2021-04-27T01:13:24Z")
Was anyone really confused at this? He’s repeatedly made comparisons to the exploration of Antarctica, etc. Even the Apollo program had a ~10% death rate (and was lucky that it wasn’t higher). But there’s a big difference between a guaranteed death sentence vs. a significant risk. > [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](#): > > If you count slowly dying from oxygen leaks / radiation / food shortages an “amazing experience”, then sure, I guess Explorers always die badly. Starvation, thirst, asphyxiation, exposure, falling, malnutrition, disease, etc. That’s just the game. In return they get their name in the history books (even if just as an example to others). No one will die of radiation on Mars, though. It’s not at high enough levels for acute radiation poisoning. It’s more at “you might get cancer in a couple of decades” levels. And not even that if you take some precautions. ---
**Author:** ![shh1313](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shh1313/32/8020_2.png) [@shh1313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shh1313)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/171 "2021-04-27T08:10:08Z")
Dr.Strangelove, Stranger on a train I have a feeling NASA won’t be worried about their budget. It also makes sense why the push to set up house on Mars by 2026. The asteroid is iron and nickel. NASA’s Discovery Program is set to launch phase D, August 2022. This program has been ongoing since 2011. Phase A B, and C completed. Then phase E Oct 2022 - Oct 2027 ,then phase F. More: > **[Psyche Mission Timeline | Psyche Mission - A Mission to a Metal World](https://psyche.asu.edu/timeline/)** > > Scroll through the entire Psyche mission timeline that consists of six phases, labeled A-F.  The timeline covers the years 2015 to 2028. > **[NASA finds rare metal asteroid worth more than global economy](https://www.mining.com/nasa-finds-rare-metal-asteroid-worth-more-than-global-economy/)** > > The heavy-metal object, called “16 Psyche”, is worth $10,000 quadrillion. That's 70,000 times the world's economy. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/172 "2021-04-27T08:52:39Z")
> [@shh1313](#): > > It also makes sense why the push to set up house on Mars by 2026. The asteroid is iron and nickel. You need to include a few more steps of your thinking. The Psyche mission is currently planned to get to its target, the asteroid 16 Psyche, in 2026. What does this have to do with people getting to Mars in 2026? ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/173 "2021-04-27T09:03:45Z")
There’s a plan to send a tiny probe to Psyche, that’s all. Perhaps you can explain how you think the metal in that asteroid is ever going to be exploited in the foreseeable future. And what Mars has to do with it. ---
**Author:** ![shh1313](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shh1313/32/8020_2.png) [@shh1313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shh1313)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/174 "2021-04-27T09:23:50Z")
If you read the article you would have known the proximity of “16 Psyche” its orbit is between **Mars** and Jupiter. Bolding for emphasis. ---
**Author:** ![shh1313](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shh1313/32/8020_2.png) [@shh1313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shh1313)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/175 "2021-04-27T09:34:43Z")
Mining the asteroid of course. Now a new studyarticle/10.3847/PSJ/abb67e/pdf) published by Southwest Research Institute planetary scientist Dr. Tracy Becker further confirms why NASA wanted SpaceX to mine the space rock that’s more than 230 million miles from Earth. The reason: The 16 Psyche asteroid is entirely comprised of iron and nickel that some scientists estimate could be worth $700,000 quadrillion dollars. > **[NASA asked Elon Musk SpaceX to mine the giant gold asteroid (16 Psyche) that...](https://techstartups.com/2020/11/19/nasa-asked-elon-musk-spacex-mine-giant-gold-asteroid-16-psyche-make-everyone-earth-billionaire-worth-700000-quadrillion-dollars/)** > > TechStartups - Coverage of Technology News, technology startups, Emerging technology, venture capital funding, and Silicon Valley ---
**Author:** ![Mikkel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mikkel/32/13151_2.png) [@Mikkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikkel)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/176 "2021-04-27T09:57:10Z")
An orbit between Mars and Jupiter just means that the asteroid is orbiting where most asteroids are orbiting. It doesn’t mean that the asteroid is anywhere close to Mars. It might be on the other side of the sun for all we (or I) know. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/177 "2021-04-27T10:01:48Z")
The space probe to the asteroid is not going to be doing any mining; it’s just going to do the usual scientific exploration. It’s also not a probe that’s being run by SpaceX. SpaceX will supply the rocket it’s launched with (a Falcon Heavy), but that’s all. About that article. Personally, I wouldn’t trust any news from an article that claims the asteroid is made of gold. And if there was an asteroid made of gold, it wouldn’t be worth getting. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/178 "2021-04-27T10:14:33Z")
> [@shh1313](#): > > Mining the asteroid of course. Easier said than done! 😀 Would they send a manned expedition there – a couple of years of travel, and a couple of years back again? (How do they carry enough fuel to get back again, anyhow?) They don’t have the ability to that at the moment. Assuming they could break off a chunk or two of metal with explosives (how well do explosives work in space, anyway?), what would they do with the chunks? How would they capture them again when they shot off into space? Do you have any idea how much energy it would take to smelt metal and do something with it in space, even supposing the technical problems could be solved? Would they boost the chunks of metal back to Earth or Mars to land like meteors, who knows where? How about rocket fuel for boosters to move a large chunk of heavy mental from between Mars and Jupiter? We’re talking about the real world here, not SF. Don’t confuse the two. We don’t have even remotely near the capability to mine asteroids, and do something useful with the metal, with present-day technology. ---
**Author:** ![shh1313](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shh1313/32/8020_2.png) [@shh1313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shh1313)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/179 "2021-04-27T10:25:24Z")
@GreenWyvern The anti matter rocket is hoping for completion in 2050. Check this out! The antimatter based propulsion spacecraft could achieve up to 72% speed of light. “With the possibility to travel to Proxima b (4.24 light-years away,) with the possibility of reaching the exoplanet in just 6 years.” Scientists and rocket engineers are currently working on a new type of rocket called an antimatter rocket that could hit speeds of 72 million mph and potentially becomes the spacecraft for future interstellar travel. The startup is creating a new antimatter spacecraft that could loop the Earth in three seconds and reach Mars in weeks. " The Men.The Company: [POSITRON DYNAMICS](http://www.positrondynamics.com/#titles-1) > **[Antimatter rocket is a future spacecraft that could reach the speed of 72...](https://techstartups.com/2021/03/13/antimatter-rocket-is-a-future-spacecraft-for-interstellar-travel-that-could-reach-the-speed-of-72-million-miles-per-hour-92-speed-of-light/)** > > TechStartups - Coverage of Technology News, technology startups, Emerging technology, venture capital funding, and Silicon Valley I’m assuming they will use these anti matter space ships.m to get there. ---
**Author:** ![shh1313](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shh1313/32/8020_2.png) [@shh1313](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shh1313)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/180 "2021-04-27T10:43:47Z")
Go back and read Strangelove and Stranger on a plane’s post. This is a snippet from [SpaceX, Blue Origin and Asteroid Mining - Asteroid Mining Corporation](https://asteroidminingcorporation.co.uk/spacex-blue-origin-and-asteroid-mining) " SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket costs $784 per kg to LEO. That is approaching two orders of magnitude less per kg than the Space Shuttle. SpaceX is currently developing the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR) which is said to be capable of carrying a payload of 150 tones to LEO at a cost of $7M which equates to $50 per kg. " As for fuel. See the link tech startup. Here’s a snippet. Also go watch the videos you might learn more than me and a few sentences to keep within copywrite regs. “An antimatter rocket combines matter and antimatter to produce a flash of light. So thrust is produced by intense light. This is called antimatter fuelled photon rocket.” ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2021, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972/181 "2021-04-27T10:48:38Z")
> [@shh1313](#): > > I’m assuming they will use these anti matter space ships.m to get there. [This recent paper](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001904/downloads/20200001904.pdf) from NASA says it would cost over $6 trillion to create one milligram of antimatter with current technology. Several grams would be needed for even a small spacecraft. Currently: > **Total amount of antiprotons produced:** > > - FermiLab (US) ≈ 15 ng > - DESY (Germany) ≈ 2 ng > - CERN (Switzerland) ≈ 1 ng > > **How much annihilation energy is this?** > > - E = 2moc2 ≈ 3.2 × 106 J > - Enough to boil about 1 liter of water The technology to contain, store, and use antimatter in space does not exist. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/elon-musk-says-2026-for-humans-on-mars-can-any-government-stop-this-madness/939972.md?page=10)