# End game in Syria **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 13, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133 "2015-09-13T19:45:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/221 "2015-10-02T23:14:39Z")
> [@Donald\_Rump](#): > > Can anyone please explain what Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have at stake, fundamentally, in the Syrian civil war? > > Yes, I get that Iran “backs” Assad, so ostensibly they care that he stays in power. But… why? How are they worse off if he falls? I guess they get to exercise some control over Hezbollah by maintaining a role in Syria/Lebanon, but… what exactly do they get out of that? Would the Iranian regime be in jeopardy if they lost the capacity to throw rockets at Israel via Hezbollah? > > Likewise, how does Saudi Arabia benefit from Assad falling other than some sort of bragging rights over Iran? The Syrian civil war is often characterized as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran… but what, at bottom, is the source of the conflict between them? I’ve heard that the Saudi family are terrified that Iran will “export” the Islamic revolution to the KSA, but what would Iran gain from doing this, assuming Iran has that capability at all? What if anything is the structural conflict of interest between them? > > As for Russia, they’ve got naval assets in Syria and sell them weapons, but how much do these actually matter to their national interest? Are they really important enough to justify wading into what is sure to be an utter cluster-fuck for the Russians? > > Anybody have good reading recommendations relating to the above? I would also say that Syria is Iran’s only friend in the region and Iran’s route to Israel and the Levant area. Iran does not border Syria, being separated by Iraq. Losing Syria would mean Iran loses an ally who also supports Hezbollah in Lebanon and may fight Israel. Plus it loses an ally. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/222 "2015-10-02T23:16:01Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Now that there are Russian troops on the ground, I think this is no longer an option. Those troops are isolated in their base. The invasion is still possible, but not even remotely probable. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/223 "2015-10-02T23:17:49Z")
> [@Nema98](#): > > So after his air force is annihilated, let the rebels fight him and watch as he loses more territory. … and Syria would become a province of the ISIS “caliphate”. As in my option (2). ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/224 "2015-10-02T23:40:53Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > … and Syria would become a province of the ISIS “caliphate”. As in my option (2). If it had happened early enough it might have been the al-Nusra Front instead, which I also don’t see as any great improvement on Assad. But _most_ likely a multi-sided civil war continues interminably, with various shifting alliances a la Lebanon ~1975-1990. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/225 "2015-10-02T23:42:33Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > If it had happened early enough it might have been the al-Nusra Front instead, which I also don’t see as any great improvement on Assad. But _most_ likely a multi-sided civil war continues interminably, with various shifting alliances a la Lebanon ~1975-1990. … as in my option (4). I am still hoping I missed something and someone may suggest an option that I didn’t mention. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2015, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/226 "2015-10-02T23:48:54Z")
Judging by [this article](http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-02/putin-has-his-own-no-fly-zone-in-syria), Obama’s administration is acquiescing to my option (1) - Assad’s regime restored (at least as far as it can be) Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have had three meetings this week on renewing discussions for a political solution in Syria. Those discussions would not seek to oust Russia’s new military presence there, which the Obama administration is now accepting as a fait accompli. (of course it does. it can’t do anything about it so it’s not like it has a choice on whether to accept it or not) “The idea was that Assad would step aside and the Russians and Iranians would play a greater role, and the U.S. would say that’s inside the framework of the Geneva communiqué,” said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “But they grabbed what we were offering and didn’t give us what we wanted, and then we were surprised.” Since the Russian buildup began last month, the U.S. has been signaling that it is ready to accept Russian and Iranian security control inside Syria without any promise by them to push Assad out any time soon. Kerry has said publicly the U.S. is flexible as to the timing of Assad’s departure. Other voices close to the White House have gone even further. “The current policy of the United States and its partners, to increase pressure on Assad so that he ‘comes to the table’ and negotiates his own departure – must be rethought,” Philip Gordon, the former White House coordinator for the Middle East, wrote this week. “It is fanciful to imagine limited airstrikes, arms to the opposition, or the establishment of a no-fly-zone would lead Assad to behave differently from Saddam, Milosevic or Gaddafi.” ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/227 "2015-10-03T00:05:58Z")
Would it be correct to say that this is yet another geopolitical victory by Vladimir over his nincompoop opponent? Vladimir just makes it look effortless. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/228 "2015-10-03T00:08:49Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > Would it be correct to say that this is yet another geopolitical victory by Vladimir over his nincompoop opponents? My alcoholic friend, it is not much of a victory when your opponent is incompetent. ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/229 "2015-10-03T00:14:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > My alcoholic friend, it is not much of a victory when your opponent is incompetent. Well, I do get the impression sometimes that Vladimir wishes he had sterner opposition (imagine him going against Reaganasque-like figure), but it’s like finding a fault in a boxer, because he thoroughly dominates competition. A boxer can only fight competition that’s available to him. ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/230 "2015-10-03T00:17:41Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > I wasn’t in favour of the decision to find support within the FSA. It was stupid to begin with. But the $500M is a sunk cost now. Let it go. Just out of curiosity, should anyone…you know…how shall I put…be held…you know…responsible for this “sunk cost”? How many heads do you think will roll after this fiasco? ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/231 "2015-10-03T00:18:59Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > Would it be correct to say that this is yet another geopolitical victory by Vladimir over his nincompoop opponent? Vladimir just makes it look effortless. Not from where I am sitting, though I guess we’ll have a better view in 20-30 years. I dunno that is anything more than shifting pieces on a board, really. The U.S. never really had any good options and I’m not particularly sure this is smart for Russia either. The only _potential_ “winner” here I can guess at without waiting a generation is Assad and those Syrians aligned with him ( voluntarily or otherwise ) and even that is yet to be decided. ETA: > [@Alkash](#): > > How many heads do you think will roll after this fiasco? Heads should roll only if there actually was serious incompetence at play here ( which there might have been for all I know ). I mean sometimes initiatives just _fail_ and the indications that they would do so are only visible in hindsight. Or in other words, sometimes even a loss of $500 million is nobody’s fault in particular - shit just didn’t work out. ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/232 "2015-10-03T00:23:20Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > … and to stick a finger into US eye, Russia pointedly conducted its first air strikes on the other anti-Assad rebel areas today, and not on Daesh strongholds. Did any of those 4 or 5 fighters that are linchpins of President Obama’s policy in Syria survived the bombing? ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/233 "2015-10-03T00:31:59Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > On the one hand, you criticize the guy who wasted $500 million on a failed attempt to find and fund the right group of rebels - arguably a fool’s errand. On the other hand, you applaud the guy who supplied 1.5 billion in weapons and ammunition to the head goon who in turn contributed directly to the death toll and general misery in the region. > > In other words, your measure of success is: Who profits ($) by contributing to chaos, death and misery? > > …That’s your definition of winning? > > No further explanation needed, indeed. My definition of winning is (as is anyone’s who’s a sane person) simple. When you achieve your goals, and earn money in the process, while preventing your opponents from doing the same, that’s definitely winning. For example, if President A achieves his goal of keeping Bashar Assad in power, while selling him 1.5 billion dollars worth of weapons, President A is definitely successful politician. If, on the other hand, President B wastes $500 million dollars on training “4 or 5” rebels, and, after meeting President A, declares that the long-stated policy goal of removing Bashar Assad is, you know, “still definitely valid, but hey, whatevs”, and then President B gets the shit bombed of the rebels he supports by President A, then President B is a failure. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/234 "2015-10-03T00:34:52Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > Would it be correct to say that this is yet another geopolitical victory by Vladimir over his nincompoop opponent? Vladimir just makes it look effortless. Not playing these games is the only way to win. Russia wastes resources and lives for nothing, while we don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/235 "2015-10-03T00:37:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Not playing these games is the only way to win. Russia wastes resources and lives for nothing, while we don’t. What resources and lives did Russia waste? Have you skipped this whole thread? Russia earned the money in Syrian fiasco, US wasted the money. Also, what “wasted lives” do you refer to? ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/236 "2015-10-03T00:43:07Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > He’s targeting groups we support. He sure is. He met President Obama during UN summit, explained to him that US-supported rebels are going to start dying in droves, and asked (rhetorically) whether President Obama had any objections. > [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > Question is, what is Obama going to do about it beyond criticizing? President Obama is going to issue a statement, strongly condemning Russia’s actions. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/237 "2015-10-03T00:45:37Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > What resources and lives did Russia waste? Have you skipped this whole thread? Russia earned the money in Syrian fiasco, US wasted the money. > Also, what “wasted lives” do you refer to? I’m making a prediction. I’m saying that the more America gets involved, the more America loses, no matter what Russia does; and the less America is involved, the more we win, no matter what Russia does. Objectives don’t matter unless the objective is “stay out”. Getting in and staying in is lose-lose. That’s the lesson from the last 12 years, along with the Vietnam war. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/238 "2015-10-03T00:47:37Z")
The only safe prediction is that getting involved, on any outsider’s part, will backfire. Which, honestly, seems more likely? Russia gets involved, and everything gets more stable, or Russia gets involved, and things get more chaotic? Which one would you put more money on? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/239 "2015-10-03T00:48:47Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The only safe prediction is that getting involved, on any outsider’s part, will backfire. > > Which, honestly, seems more likely? Russia gets involved, and everything gets more stable, or Russia gets involved, and things get more chaotic? Which one would you put more money on? At this point, “more chaotic” is a bit hard to imagine. ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2015, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/240 "2015-10-03T00:50:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m making a prediction. Ah, so when you said > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Russia wastes resources and lives for nothing that was a prediction, not statement of the facts? How do you feel about your prediction, knowing that Russia **already** earned (as opposed to your prediction of “waste”) money in Syria? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133.md?page=13)