# End game in Syria **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 13, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133 "2015-09-13T19:45:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/321 "2015-10-06T21:06:20Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > Turkey just threatened to shoot down any Russian planes that stray into it’s airspace, would that be because the Russians are doing it like they mean it ? It might just be because they don’t want foreign military assets in their airspace without permission. Countries tend to frown on that sort of thing generally. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/322 "2015-10-06T21:10:18Z")
“ETA: And are you really blaming the United States for alcoholism in Russia (#315)? WTF?” Anyone taking the trouble to look at a Russian life expectancy chart can’t help but notice the dip after 1990. Social stress leads to drug abuse. They lost a war with you, or rather us - the west generally. We were at war with them, right ? Well, there’s the collateral damage. That’s in addition to the obvious internal problems they have - like the massive revenue the government gets from alcohol sales. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/323 "2015-10-06T21:12:16Z")
And no we didn’t argue about Turkey to a “stalemate”. The trouble with shooting the messengers is that you end up not knowing what’s going on around you. But that’s OK, not everyone wants to. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/324 "2015-10-06T21:14:48Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > It might just be because they don’t want foreign military assets in their airspace without permission. Countries tend to frown on that sort of thing generally. True, but then why don’t they come to an agreement - if they share a common goal in defeating Islamic terrorism ? Why doesn’t Turkey give enthusiastic permission, and let Russia take the risk and expense ? ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/325 "2015-10-06T22:11:01Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I haven’t seen any such times lately. Does not mean it may never happen. I was talking generally. ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/326 "2015-10-06T22:13:28Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > But you may ask, if ISIS, Al Nusra and all those others want to regain Saudi for their caliphate, which would be very bad for us, why are our allies especially Turkey supporting them ? > I guess they’re trying a tightrope act between too much support and too little. Enough to remove Assad, and not too much to ruin Saudi Arabia. No evidence that Turkey supported ISIS. Now I don’t Turkey’s foreign policy is all great, their recent violence with the Kurds is to be loathed. But let’s talk about Assad buying oil from ISIS, hence supporting them. We may see that Assad, Russia and Iran will give a ISIS a gift. And that’s what they want. And no ISIS will not “take” Saudi Arabia. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/327 "2015-10-06T22:15:17Z")
> [@Nema98](#): > > Does not mean it may never happen. I was talking generally. Maybe it will happen some day, but it’s not happening now. Right now we should be staying out. ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/328 "2015-10-06T22:17:36Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > That’s a lot of naughty water, got to say. That will be your cold war victory rupturing Russian society, which is strange because I thought what you had to offer was a better way of life for them. turns out all you had to offer was impoverishment and a higher death rate. This is not “our” fault(whoever “we” are"), assuming you are talking about the West. Russians have had a long tradition of drinking themselves to death, from when Russia was part of the Soviet Union and even before. This is the fault of Russians, not anyone else. Russia is not a great country, and they are backwards. Take their record on HIV, where the government and many health workers refuse to admit the nation has a problem. Is that our fault also? Sucks that Putin is not everything “right”, huh? From alcoholism to HIV/AIDS, this is all Russia’s fault and no one else’s. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/329 "2015-10-07T01:24:15Z")
Indeed it was partly our fault, as is widely accepted by sensible people. But now that period of history is over we can see they’re still drinking themselves to death on their own accord. Rough place. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/330 "2015-10-07T01:25:20Z")
“No evidence that Turkey supported ISIS.” Plenty of evidence. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/331 "2015-10-07T10:14:52Z")
Brzezinski couple of days ago > [@](#): > > “In these rapidly unfolding circumstances the U.S. has only one real option if it is to protect its wider stakes in the region: to convey to Moscow the demand that it cease and desist from military actions that directly affect American assets,” he said. What are these assets ? Are they democratic freedom fighters or salafist terrorists ? ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/332 "2015-10-07T10:41:43Z")
Question: Is the Syrian state more “broken” now than the Lebanese state was in the midst of its civil war? Please correct me if I’m wrong (which I may well be), but I imagine that, for a contemporary observer back when that conflict was at its worst, the idea of the Lebanese state ever being put back together again may have seemed like a hopelessly naïve fantasy. The sectarian divisions may have seemed far too deep to ever bridge, and the fratricidal passions far too hot to ever cool down. And yet, rather than splintering along sectarian lines, Balkan-style, Lebanon was, after a fashion, put back together again despite it all (albeit with a weak central government and Hezbollah _de facto_ running the south). For those of you who believe that the Syrian state is permanently broken and can never ever be put back together again, what factors would you say come into play in Syria that did not come into play in Lebanon? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/333 "2015-10-07T11:35:58Z")
As you said, Lebanon is barely a state. The Lebanese Civil War hasn’t ended, but merely paused. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/334 "2015-10-07T12:08:50Z")
Fair point. But then the follow-up question becomes: Could the Syrian civil war be “paused,” same way the Lebanese one was? Where the warring parties - whoever they are at the time, maybe five or ten years down the line - reach some kind of semi-permanent ceasefire, where the nation remains at least nominally united, and you end up with some kind of balance of terror, with no more daily bloodshed than you have in present-day Lebanon? From where I’m sitting, such an endgame seems, well, at least no less likely than some of the others I’ve seen suggested, including all-Assad, all-ISIS, or partition into two or more independent nation states… ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/335 "2015-10-07T12:22:50Z")
Anyone got a view on the recent spate of [calls](https://www.google.com/search?q=calls+for+no-fly+zone&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#q=calls+for+no-fly+zone+syria)for a no-fly zone in Syria? Clinton and many of the Republican candidates have taken this position, as well as commentators from (generally pro-intervention) sources like WSJ, WaPo, etc. Even Kerry may be breaking from the administration’s opposition to a NFZ. The idea doesn’t make a great deal of sense to me. Presumably a NFZ that has the effect of weakening Assad’s chance of survival wouldn’t fly (pun intended) with the Russians. So they veto any UN resolution calling for the NFZ and go on bombing anyway. Do we engage them directly? What possible interest do we have in Syria that would justify doing that? Or, let’s say for the sake of argument we get Russia to agree to a NFZ. What exactly does that get us? So we have a zone where Assad can no longer operate against rebel targets, including ISIS. Seems to me that only prolongs the conflict and makes the defeat of ISIS more remote–unless the idea is that WE bomb ISIS in those areas. But why should we do it when Russia/Assad are willing to bear the financial cost, the casualties, and the blame for all the inevitable collateral damage? ISTM the current calls for a NFZ are mostly a reflection of the bipartisan freak-out over Russia’s involvement in Syria–a freak-out that strikes me as pathological given that our main interest in Syria AFAICT is to stem the tide of migrants and to exterminate extremist elements, and the best way to achieve those interests is if we hold our nose and let Assad remain in power. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/336 "2015-10-07T14:17:17Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > True, but then why don’t they come to an agreement - if they share a common goal in defeating Islamic terrorism ? Why doesn’t Turkey give enthusiastic permission, and let Russia take the risk and expense ? For the same reason a number of Gulf states wouldn’t let allied aircraft into their airspace during the Gulf War, probably. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/337 "2015-10-07T17:15:05Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > For the same reason a number of Gulf states wouldn’t let allied aircraft into their airspace during the Gulf War, probably. Got to admit I don’t remember much about that, because listening to lying scum politicians was of no interest to me and I found other things to do. I find the lies more interesting nowadays. I find the way people gobble them up or wilfuly parrot them interesting too. 1st Gulf War or 2nd ? ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/338 "2015-10-07T17:31:22Z")
> [@Donald\_Rump](#): > > Anyone got a view on the recent spate of [calls](https://www.google.com/search?q=calls+for+no-fly+zone&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#q=calls+for+no-fly+zone+syria)for a no-fly zone in Syria? Clinton and many of the Republican candidates have taken this position, as well as commentators from (generally pro-intervention) sources like WSJ, WaPo, etc. Even Kerry may be breaking from the administration’s opposition to a NFZ. > > The idea doesn’t make a great deal of sense to me. Presumably a NFZ that has the effect of weakening Assad’s chance of survival wouldn’t fly (pun intended) with the Russians. So they veto any UN resolution calling for the NFZ and go on bombing anyway. Do we engage them directly? What possible interest do we have in Syria that would justify doing that? > > Or, let’s say for the sake of argument we get Russia to agree to a NFZ. What exactly does that get us? So we have a zone where Assad can no longer operate against rebel targets, including ISIS. Seems to me that only prolongs the conflict and makes the defeat of ISIS more remote–unless the idea is that WE bomb ISIS in those areas. But why should we do it when Russia/Assad are willing to bear the financial cost, the casualties, and the blame for all the inevitable collateral damage? > > ISTM the current calls for a NFZ are mostly a reflection of the bipartisan freak-out over Russia’s involvement in Syria–a freak-out that strikes me as pathological given that our main interest in Syria AFAICT is to stem the tide of migrants and to exterminate extremist elements, and the best way to achieve those interests is if we hold our nose and let Assad remain in power. NFZ (well it was more of a bombing campaign than an NFZ) in Libya just turned the place into jihadi filled chaos. Just like everyone said it would. Cameron’s angling for a repeat performance and another million refugees. It’s either crass stupidity or a long game that’s so cunning it looks like abject failure. In fact this is what many seem to think - that when the history books are written it’ll all look like strategic genius. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/339 "2015-10-07T18:21:39Z")
Why is it so upsetting that Russia is finally getting actively involved in the Syrian conflict? They are long standing allies. I’m surprised Putin hasn’t done so much sooner. Perhaps his “invitation” was lost in the email and only recently delivered to Moscow. You know how the post office is. Better late than never, right? Some pundits say that even the US waited too long to get involved. That’s why it’s success in supporting a viable FSA was thwarted and created a vacuum for radical groups like ISIS. (Yeah… I don’t buy it either.) Anyway, Russia is only getting involved using its RVA (Russian Volunteer Army) troops. They did wonders in Ukraine. The US is right to take a lesson out of Napoleon’s play book; When an enemy is busy making a mistake, you let them. Yeah, I know. It didn’t work out too well for him in the end. But he wasn’t wrong about that. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2015, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/340 "2015-10-07T18:33:48Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Question: Is the Syrian state more “broken” now than the Lebanese state was in the midst of its civil war? A good question. It’s worth noting that, brutal as Lebanon was, the Syrian war has been a lot bloodier in absolute terms, with more than twice as many people killed in one-quarter the duration. So far. (Yes, Syria was a bigger country to start with.) I also don’t think Lebanon ever has been put back together, except nominally. The present Hezbollah territory is a functionally separate country as far as I can tell, though of course **Alessan** has a much closer view and can probably speak more to that. > [@Steken](#): > > But then the follow-up question becomes: Could the Syrian civil war be “paused,” same way the Lebanese one was? Where the warring parties - whoever they are at the time, maybe five or ten years down the line - reach some kind of semi-permanent ceasefire, where the nation remains at least nominally united, and you end up with some kind of balance of terror, with no more daily bloodshed than you have in present-day Lebanon? Given the larger geography and the body count, I’m guessing… unlikely. And anyway, why would you want that? If the country _is_ effectively broken, what’s the value in only nominal unity over simmering tension? Better to seek a lasting accord in new borders. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133.md?page=18)