# End game in Syria **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 13, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133 "2015-09-13T19:45:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/501 "2015-10-13T05:01:52Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > if one of my goals were to beat my wife, it would be better if I failed, no? If your goal were to beat your wife, and if you were to fail…wait a second… why would you fail? Are you not a man? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/502 "2015-10-13T05:24:20Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > If your goal were to beat your wife, and if you were to fail…wait a second… why would you fail? Are you not a man? I am a man, and someone who beats his wife isn’t. He’s worthless, pathetic scum. ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/503 "2015-10-13T05:27:41Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I am a man, and someone who beats his wife isn’t. He’s worthless, pathetic scum. Why would you make it one of your goals, then? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/504 "2015-10-13T05:28:20Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > Why would you make it one of your goals, then? I don’t know. Why would you? ---
**Author:** ![Alkash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ec9cab/32.png) [@Alkash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alkash)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/505 "2015-10-13T05:29:38Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I don’t know. Why would you? I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/506 "2015-10-13T05:59:52Z")
And then when all the fighting is over they have several cities and hundreds of villages and towns to rebuild. Expensive. And then it will become a dust bowl because the rivers have been dammed and the aquifers drained. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 7:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/507 "2015-10-13T07:30:57Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > The greater the Iranian presence in Syria, the higher the chance Israel will get directly involved. Just keep that in mind. Fair point. Is this something that is discussed a lot in Israeli media? When and under what circumstances Israel should - or would have to - get directly involved in the Syrian war? Would love to hear your take on this. In any case, I’ll make it a further part of my 20 dollar bet that Iran itself will not, over the next ten to fifteen years, be attacked by Israel (or any other nation). I imagine that the realists in charge in both Tel Aviv and Tehran will ultimately recognise that pacifying the region’s restive Sunni Arabs - from the Levant to Baluchistan - needs to be priority number one, at least for now. This does not preclude some sniping and jostling back and forth, in Syria and Lebanon and elsewhere - what’s a nice little proxy war between friends? - but I imagine that it should at least be enough to preclude an all-out war between Israel and Iran, which would weaken both and benefit no one as much as the region’s Sunni jihadists. I’m sure there’s a million crucial little details I’m overlooking here - feel free to point 'em out, folks. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/508 "2015-10-13T07:50:20Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > …pacifying the region’s restive Sunni Arabs… to Baluchistan - needs to be priority number one, at least for now… With such great wisdom to inform them, they can without doubt have the success of the younger bush the president in his efforts. what may happen to the Baloch and the Pakhtun with such wisdom I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/509 "2015-10-13T08:29:37Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > With such great wisdom to inform them, they can without doubt have the success of the younger bush the president in his efforts. > > what may happen to the Baloch and the Pakhtun with such wisdom I don’t know. Sorry, you lost me. Care to explain, somewhat more clearly, what you were trying to say? To be clear, I was referring to [Jundallah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran))’s terror campaign against Iran - including attacks such as [this one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Zahedan_bombings), [this one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Zahedan_bombing), [this one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pishin_bombing), [this one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Zahedan_bombings) and [this one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Chabahar_suicide_bombing). ETA: Ooooh now I get it. The Baloch, of course, aren’t Arabs. Should have written “Sunni jihadists” rather than “Sunni Arabs.” The point is conceded. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/510 "2015-10-13T08:41:43Z")
my point was also that gross over simplification in seeing very different groups and problems as one, like in my opinion the recent president bush, is likely to be as successful as that president was in the policy. the mistake of saying arab for different sunni groups with their own issues like the baloch is an illustration. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/511 "2015-10-13T08:46:03Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Fair point. Is this something that is discussed a lot in Israeli media? When and under what circumstances Israel should - or would have to - get directly involved in the Syrian war? Would love to hear your take on this. > > In any case, I’ll make it a further part of my 20 dollar bet that Iran itself will not, over the next ten to fifteen years, be attacked by Israel (or any other nation). > > I imagine that the realists in charge in both Tel Aviv and Tehran will ultimately recognise that pacifying the region’s restive Sunni Arabs - from the Levant to Baluchistan - needs to be priority number one, at least for now. > > This does not preclude some sniping and jostling back and forth, in Syria and Lebanon and elsewhere - what’s a nice little proxy war between friends? - but I imagine that it should at least be enough to preclude an all-out war between Israel and Iran, which would weaken both and benefit no one as much as the region’s Sunni jihadists. > > I’m sure there’s a million crucial little details I’m overlooking here - feel free to point 'em out, folks. It’s easy to dismiss proxy wars when it’s not you who’s being shot at. Unfortunately, I don’t have that luxury. Israel’s biggest concerns are first, that Hezbollah might acquire far more advanced missiles and air defenses than it has now, and uses them against Israel; and second, that Iranian or Russian troops might get involved in the fighting. Think what will happen, for instance, if Hezbollah fires rockets at Tel Aviv, Israel sends planes to take out the launchers, Russia sends a flight or jest to intercept them, and Israel is forced to shoot them down? That’s not the start of a regional war - it’s the start of a global one. And Israel _will_ defend itself against attack, Russians be damned. We’re kind of crazy that way. No, while ISIS may be cause for some concern, Iran remains Israel’s biggest threat in the Middle East. We’d rather have ISIS on our border - after all, at least \*they \*don’t have a nuclear program. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/512 "2015-10-13T08:50:40Z")
It might be better for the Israel if you learned more and better lessons from the last such adventure in the Lebanon and the bad threat analysis that it was based on. the feeling is understandable, I do not judge you on that, but the analysis is as bad as that one that got you into the lebanon for no good results. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/513 "2015-10-13T08:51:28Z")
> [@Alkash](#): > > If your goal were to beat your wife, and if you were to fail…wait a second… why would you fail? Because beating my wife is wrong, and if thanks to some lapse of judgment, stupidity or moral weakness I decided to do the wrong thing, wouldn’t it be better if I failed? ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/514 "2015-10-13T08:52:59Z")
I think a dialogue with that poster is not going to be very informative, although maybe amusing still. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/515 "2015-10-13T08:55:10Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > It might be better for the Israel if you learned more and better lessons from the last such adventure in the Lebanon and the bad threat analysis that it was based on. the feeling is understandable, I do not judge you on that, but the analysis is as bad as that one that got you into the lebanon for no good results. Lebanon was a mistake because we tried to engage in nation-building, which is never a good idea, and because we didn’t have an exit plan. I’m not suggesting that now. Israel’s not supporting any side in the Syrian Civil War, just fighting the same enemies we’ve always fought, and has no plan to occupy anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/516 "2015-10-13T09:17:10Z")
so lessons not learned yet. It is fantastical to think you intervene and do not get sucked into factions or the fantasy of securing a frontier that then moves forward. the lessons of the history there and everywhere show this. I hope your general staff studies better their errors of thinking for the lebanon. The syria will keep itself occupied far at least as long with the pointless spilling of blood, you will be smarter to keep away even if a missile tries to provoke. It is better to be the cat that dodges than the stupid dog that charges. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/517 "2015-10-13T09:34:08Z")
Sorry. If there’s one belief that lies at the very foundation of our nation, it’s that no-one gets a free pass on killing Jews. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 9:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/518 "2015-10-13T09:38:50Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > my point was also that gross over simplification in seeing very different groups and problems as one, like in my opinion the recent president bush, is likely to be as successful as that president was in the policy. > > the mistake of saying arab for different sunni groups with their own issues like the baloch is an illustration. I don’t see ISIS and Jundullah “as one.” I don’t imagine that the Iranians does, either. They _do_ see both groups as enemies that need to be put down, and I imagine that they’ll succeed in this over the next decade or so. > [@Alessan](#): > > It’s easy to dismiss proxy wars when it’s not you who’s being shot at. Unfortunately, I don’t have that luxury. I apologise for the flippant tone in my previous post. Didn’t mean to downplay the seriousness of a proxy war… Sorry about that. I could imagine that, as part of Iran’s “pivot” towards fighting ISIS, they’ll ask Hezbollah to temporarily stop provoking Israel and concentrate - for now - on propping up Assad. Hell, I’d be surprised if this hasn’t happened already. I can’t see Hezbollah faring very well in a two-front war, so presumably that’s something their Iranian masters would try to avoid. I absolutely can’t imagine a situation where Israel and Russia tangle. Neither country would stand to benefit. I imagine they’ll keep out of each others’ way. > [@Alessan](#): > > We’d rather have ISIS on our border - after all, at least \*they \*don’t have a nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear program has been defanged, and I imagine that the deal will hold. This might even make some kind of behind-the-scenes détente with Tel Aviv a possibility sometime in the next, what, twenty years or so. Stranger things have happened. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/519 "2015-10-13T09:52:45Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Sorry. If there’s one belief that lies at the very foundation of our nation, it’s that no-one gets a free pass on killing Jews. et alors… I do hope your leadership is smarter than being the bull that blindly charges here and there at small provocations due to a slogan, but then you have that person netanyahu. eta, it is funny to imagine the same reaction if one wrote “a free pass in killing arabes” or something similar. it is not good to make policy from slogans. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/520 "2015-10-13T10:20:33Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > et alors… I do hope your leadership is smarter than being the bull that blindly charges here and there at small provocations due to a slogan, but then you have that person netanyahu. > > eta, it is funny to imagine the same reaction if one wrote “a free pass in killing arabes” or something similar. > > it is not good to make policy from slogans. It’s not a slogan - we tried being cats for 2000 years and look where it got us. Bulls are better. And as much as I despise Netanyahu, I know for a fact that no Israeli - present company included - would re-elect a leader who chose to do nothing while his country was attacked. You know how to Americans, it’s the economy, stupid? Well, Israelis don’t vote on the economy. It’s all national defense all the way. Don’t confuse Israelis with westerners. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133.md?page=27)