# End game in Syria

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [September 13, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133 "2015-09-13T19:45:22Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 27

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**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/521 "2015-10-13T10:39:43Z")

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it is a slogan or perhaps complexes and it is not sustainable to make the policy from the slogans.  
the bulls are slaughtered and eaten, the cats are not and they do defend themselves when truly needed.

mais voila, if it is insisted the repetition of past error is required…

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/522 "2015-10-13T10:58:16Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> Lebanon was a mistake because we tried to engage in nation-building, which is never a good idea, and because we didn’t have an exit plan. I’m not suggesting that now. Israel’s not supporting any side in the Syrian Civil War, just fighting the same enemies we’ve always fought, and has no plan to occupy anyone.

What about this ?

[http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-syrian-rebels-keeping-druze-safe-in-exchange-for-israeli-aid/](http://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-syrian-rebels-keeping-druze-safe-in-exchange-for-israeli-aid/)

> [@](#):
>
> During a briefing with Israel’s diplomatic correspondents at the IDF’s headquarters in Tel Aviv, Ya’alon said that Israel’s ongoing humanitarian assistance to Syrian rebel fighters, a source of growing conflict between Israel and its own Druze population, safeguards the minority population in Syria.   
> “We’ve assisted them under two conditions,” Ya’alon said of the Israeli medical aid to the Syrian rebels, some of whom are presumably fighting with al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad. “That they don’t get too close to the border, and that they don’t touch the Druze.”

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/523 "2015-10-13T11:09:55Z")

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…or this

> **[New UN report reveals collaboration between Israel and Syrian rebels](https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/New-UN-report-reveals-collaboration-between-Israel-and-Syrian-rebels-383926)**
>
> The new documents show that Israel has been doing more than simply treating wounded Syrian civilians in hospitals.

> [@](#):
>
> “The documents show that Israel has been doing more than simply treating wounded Syrian civilians in hospitals. This and a few past reports have described transfer of unspecified supplies from Israel to the Syrian rebels, and sightings of IDF soldiers meeting with the Syrian opposition east of the green zone, as well as incidents when Israeli soldiers opened up the fence to allow Syrians through who did not appear to be injured.”

> **[UN Report: Israel in Regular Contact with Syrian Rebels including ISIS](https://www.ibtimes.co.in/un-report-israel-regular-contact-syrian-rebels-including-isis-616404)**
>
> Members of ISIS and Nusra front also have been treated in Israeli hospitals.

> [@](#):
>
> Israel initially had maintained that it was treating only civilians. However, reports claimed that earlier last month members of Israel’s Druze minority protested the hospitalisation of wounded Syrian fighters from the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front in Israel.  
> A statement issued by a group of Druze activists accused the Israeli government of supporting radical Sunni factions such as the Islamic State (ISIS).  
> Replying to a question by [i24News](http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/53651-141207-regular-contact-between-israel-and-syrian-rebels-un-report) on whether Israel has given medical assistance to members of al-Nusra and Daesh (the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State (ISIS), a Israeli military spokesman’s office said: “In the past two years the Israel Defence Forces have been engaged in humanitarian, life-saving aid to wounded Syrians, irrespective of their identity.”

All God’s beautiful children living in harmony.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/524 "2015-10-13T11:10:13Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> It’s not a slogan - we tried being cats for 2000 years and look where it got us. Bulls are better.

Bulls get put down. Cats don’t. Bad analogy (like animal analogies generally).😉  
. Or domestic abuse ones; who the hell came up with those…

> [@](#):
>
> The greater the Iranian presence in Syria, the higher the chance Israel will get directly involved. Just keep that in mind.

Don’t think so. The events of the last fortnight means that “direct involvement” would result in confrontation with Mother Russia and Papa Putin. Which is not in anybody’s interests, especially not Israels.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/525 "2015-10-13T11:19:39Z")

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> [@Alessan](#):
>
> . Think what will happen, for instance, if Hezbollah fires rockets at Tel Aviv, Israel sends planes to take out the launchers, Russia sends a flight or jest to intercept them, and Israel is forced to shoot them down? That’s not the start of a regional war - it’s the start of a global one. And Israel _will_ defend itself against attack, Russians be damned. We’re kind of crazy that way.
> 
> No, while ISIS may be cause for some concern, Iran remains Israel’s biggest threat in the Middle East. We’d rather have ISIS on our border - after all, at least \*they \*don’t have a nuclear program.

That is with respect not crazy, that is stupid. Its worse stupidity then Saakashvili showed in 2008.

Shooting down a Russian plane (forced to?:rolleyes:) means a dead Russian, and means Russian retaliation. At a level where Israel cannot match, retaliate or even frankly do much to mitigate.

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/526 "2015-10-13T11:25:16Z")

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> **[New Evidence Suggests Israel Is Helping Syrian Rebels in the Golan Heights](https://www.vice.com/en/article/new-evidence-suggests-israel-is-helping-syrian-rebels-in-the-golan-heights/)**
>
> A new UN report and incidents witnessed by VICE News reporters seem to indicate that Israel is aiding Syrian rebels in the Golan Heights territory.

> [@](#):
>
> In November, VICE News sent a video team to the Golan Heights where they witnessed and recorded occurrences similar to those outlined by the UN. The team saw IDF soldiers treating wounded Syrian fighters along the border. Though VICE News could not confirm the affiliation of the fighters, some of the rebels being treated by Israel had long hair, a characteristic that is associated with members of the al Nusra Front.

Is that long hair thing true ?

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/ItykyRdBTHE/maxresdefault.jpg "Islamist Militants on Israel's Doorstep: The War Next Door (Full Length)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItykyRdBTHE)

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/527 "2015-10-13T12:14:53Z")

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So that was an interesting video - interview with FSA fighter in hospital, lying next to two al-Nusra guys with their bed clothes pulled over their heads. I suppose the best you could say is that you can’t tell who you take in at night very easily.  
And then footage of border guards training exercises to keep out al Nusra.  
In a few years time is this going to end up with al Nusra bombs planted in London or Jerusalem ?

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**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/528 "2015-10-13T12:16:37Z")

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> [@An\_Gadai](#):
>
> Does the Russian intervention matter or is it just forestalling the day of Assad’s fall and Syria’s Balkanisation?

No. Putin will fight a war of absolute brutality. ISIS will be told to surrender or die. this is the only way to excise the cancer…

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**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/529 "2015-10-13T12:53:14Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> No. Putin will fight a war of absolute brutality. ISIS will be told to surrender or die. this is the only way to excise the cancer…

Excellente ralph, with all your learning I have seen these years, I also would like to hear from you about the success of this approach in the Afghanistan and even the recent Ukraine and how it has perfectly served the Russian objectives. We can then see how the amazing Putin will overcome in the Syria…

I am sure this is not actually about some of the american domestic politics.

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**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/530 "2015-10-13T13:05:26Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> No. Putin will fight a war of absolute brutality. ISIS will be told to surrender or die. this is the only way to excise the cancer…

Putin is not fighting ISIS. He’s fighting the other militias, who threaten Assad’s hold over the small area left in his control.  
Russia’s only concern is to help Assad solidify his rule over a chunk of land large enough that on a map there will be room to print the word “syria”, and hold a Russian naval base. Putin will happily surrender the rest of the country to ISIS.

ISIS is smart enough not to attack Russia, so they will leave Assad alone, locked up in his fiefdom-- Nominally in charge, but in reality just a Russian puppet. ISIS will then use its base in Syria to become a major, major force in the world.

And all the way, politically correct Western leaders and professors of politcal science will assure us that ISIS is nothing to worry about.

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**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/531 "2015-10-13T13:32:50Z")

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> [@chappachula](#):
>
> ISIS will then use its base in Syria to become a major, major force in the world.

There is no chance of ISIS ever becoming “a major, major force in the world.” Slowly but surely, their millions of enemies will grind them into dust.

> [@chappachula](#):
>
> And all the way, politically correct Western leaders and professors of politcal science will assure us that ISIS is nothing to worry about.

Are there _any_ Western leaders or “professors of politcal [sic!] science” who claim that “ISIS is nothing to worry about”? In all honesty I can’t think of a single one.

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**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/532 "2015-10-13T13:36:46Z")

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It just occurred to me how sometimes the foreign policy debates on this board are a cross between the Atlantic magazine and Yahoo Answers. Complex topics, but then so much silliness.

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/533 "2015-10-13T14:25:24Z")

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> [@MrQwertyasd](#):
>
> So that was an interesting video - interview with FSA fighter in hospital, lying next to two al-Nusra guys with their bed clothes pulled over their heads. I suppose the best you could say is that you can’t tell who you take in at night very easily.  
> And then footage of border guards training exercises to keep out al Nusra.  
> In a few years time is this going to end up with al Nusra bombs planted in London or Jerusalem ?

…or Moscow most likely. The FSA will hand over some supplies the Saudis or America gave them, and Nusra will do something heinous in the Moscow metro.

> [@](#):
>
> Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, head of Syria’s Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra Front, urged jihadists in the Caucasus to target Russians because of Moscow’s air campaign.  
> “If the Russian army kills the people of Syria, then kill their people. And if they kill our soldiers, then kill their soldiers. An eye for an eye,” Jolani said in an audio recording released late Monday.

Then Russian public opinion will be super heated both towards the Islamists and NATO. And Putin will go up to 95% approval rating. But then Nusra will bomb an American target and the Russians will see a value in supporting them…  
They could flip flop between both powers attacking one on behalf of the other in turn, auctioning their services to the great powers.

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**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/534 "2015-10-13T18:07:07Z")

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What exactly **is** the American strategy in Syria?

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**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/535 "2015-10-13T18:22:33Z")

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> [@AK84](#):
>
> What exactly **is** the American strategy in Syria?

“And that, Detective, is the right question.” -from the Movie ‘I Robot’

Wish to hell I had a good answer for it.

I will add that (IMHO) too often we (and in this I include both Repubs and Dems) operate on the old assumption that “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” It would be much better to use the Schlock Mercenary (webcomic you should read-end advert) interpretation of it: The enemy of my enemy is my enemies’ enemy: No more. No less."

Press on.

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**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/536 "2015-10-13T18:59:01Z")

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> [@AK84](#):
>
> What exactly **is** the American strategy in Syria?

Assad should go, but it isn’t going to happen any time soon, so make life hard for him but don’t get so invested that people expect immediate results.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/537 "2015-10-13T19:04:56Z")

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> [@AK84](#):
>
> What exactly **is** the American strategy in Syria?

Fail to do basic research. Using flawed data, ascertain what will protect American economic interests without causing a political backlash at home. Cloak in rhetoric about freedom and democracy.

Oh, sorry, you were asking about the results, not the methodology.

Then: gauge who is likely to win, or at least not lose, relying heavily on intelligence provided by Israel. Offer them very limited military support and make extravagant promises for the future. Hope they believe you. Hope they win.

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**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/538 "2015-10-13T20:28:20Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> **AK84** wrote:\*\*\*\*  
> What exactly **is** the American strategy in Syria?

> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#):
>
> “And that, Detective, is the right question.”

Even though he got a lot of flak for it, Obama’s “we don’t have a strategy yet” comment last year reflected a basic truth about this conflict: the US does not really have a clear vital national interest in Syria. Absent such an interest, it’s pretty hard to define _objectives_, not to mention a strategy.

AFAICT the US “strategy,” if you can call it that, is to avoid the commitment of too many US resources to a conflict whose outcome frankly doesn’t matter all that much to our own security or interests. In that regard, US strategy has been largely successful.

I say “largely” successful, because in parallel to this Obama seems to be employing a _political_ strategy of doing whatever half-measures he thinks will appease his domestic hawkish critics; so far, the cost of those half-measures has been relatively low (i.e. the $500MM wasted on training rebels), but it has been rather embarrassing to him personally. Which frankly he deserves, for not taking a firmer non-interventionist stance on the whole Syria mess.

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [October 13, 2015, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/539 "2015-10-13T20:53:41Z")

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> [@Donald\_Rump](#):
>
> Even though he got a lot of flak for it, Obama’s “we don’t have a strategy yet” comment last year reflected a basic truth about this conflict: the US does not really have a clear vital national interest in Syria. Absent such an interest, it’s pretty hard to define _objectives_, not to mention a strategy.

The US has plenty of interests it’s just impotent - it has just stopped one idea after blowing $500 million on a total of “5 or 6” trained fighters. Most credit you can give Obama is for not firing off rockets to make it seem he knows what he’s doing for domestic consumption.

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/540 "2015-10-14T05:30:50Z")

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> [@Donald\_Rump](#):
>
> Even though he got a lot of flak for it, Obama’s “we don’t have a strategy yet” comment last year reflected a basic truth about this conflict: the US does not really have a clear vital national interest in Syria. Absent such an interest, it’s pretty hard to define _objectives_, not to mention a strategy.
> 
> AFAICT the US “strategy,” if you can call it that, is to avoid the commitment of too many US resources to a conflict whose outcome frankly doesn’t matter all that much to our own security or interests. In that regard, US strategy has been largely successful.
> 
> I say “largely” successful, because in parallel to this Obama seems to be employing a _political_ strategy of doing whatever half-measures he thinks will appease his domestic hawkish critics; so far, the cost of those half-measures has been relatively low (i.e. the $500MM wasted on training rebels), but it has been rather embarrassing to him personally. Which frankly he deserves, for not taking a firmer non-interventionist stance on the whole Syria mess.

Being a post enlightenment civilisation with a secular governing philosopy, can it ever be enthusiastic about a war in which all sides are religious - if there isn’t enough of a business incentive ?

If the USA rigorously backed the most secular and progressive rebels with intent to create a truly modern state, that would scare the shit out of it’s partners around the region, and upset all sorts of god fearers at home.

I’ve never seen, in the big media, a political manifesto produced by the opposition which looks anything like a declaration of independence or bill of rights or constitution. So people are left wondering what they are supporting.

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