# End game in Syria

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [September 13, 2015, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133 "2015-09-13T19:45:22Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\
**Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/41 "2015-09-19T05:38:44Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> If Russia can end the war, the world will be a less dangerous place. Assad is a bastard, but he’s an angel compared to Daesh.

I think John Mace is right here.

Assad may kill you if you threaten his people, or even if you get uppity.

Daesh is engaged in revolutionary nation-building. They have more incentive to purge dissidents just to gain position. And they seem awfully concerned about a mean and vicious version of “halal” and “haram” that seems to go beyond the words of the Prophet into oppressive conformity. I’m not sure if that’s primarily about a secular end of purging the populace of potential dissenters or about superstitious piosity, and I’m not sure it matters.

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**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\
**Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/42 "2015-09-19T05:41:27Z")

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> [@madsircool](#):
>
> Russia wont be able to end the war. A real endgame will be drawing new terrirtorial boundries in what is now Syria and Iraq based on ethnic composition. The countries will be much more stable. Turkey will also have to make peace with the Kurds. Its a greata moment to make a sweeping change in the region.

I like the idea that this could somehow force Turkey to surrender territory to Kurdish nationalists, but I don’t see a path forward for that. If you’re just saying there will be a Kurdistan in territory formerly claimed by Iraq and Syria, and the Turks will sign a peace accord with them…

_…maybe._

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**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\
**Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/43 "2015-09-19T06:51:54Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> I’m sure we’re speeding a lot more than that bombing the shit out of the country.
> 
> You keep bombing, US. That’s what you’re good at.

We’re bombing Syria, now?

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**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\
**Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/44 "2015-09-19T06:54:49Z")

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> [@snowthx](#):
>
> Syria is the new Afghanistan.

What? No. Historic perspective is needed. Afghanistan is the folly de jure, actually the “graveyard of empires” for many reasons Syria doesn’t even approach. Al-Assad’s government functions on mechanisms we are familiar with ( infrastructure, conventional arms, depots) and is a significant role in a power struggle playing out in spite of American cares.

Syria is just the battlefield of the middle east power struggle, it will be resolved there one way or the other.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/45 "2015-09-19T09:16:07Z")

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> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#):
>
> We’re bombing Syria, now?

[We have been for over a year.](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/obama-speech-authorise-air-strikes-against-isis-syria)

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**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\
**Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/46 "2015-09-19T11:09:18Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> If Russia can end the war, the world will be a less dangerous place. Assad is a bastard, but he’s an angel compared to Daesh.

For how long? This would just kick the can down the road a bit, and is a large part of how this whole mess happened to begin with. Brutal dictators are good at suppressing moderate dissent, and so when they inevitably fall, the extremists are what’s left to fill the vacuum.

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**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\
**Post date:** [September 20, 2015, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/47 "2015-09-20T10:11:11Z")

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That’s a very good point I’d not considered.

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**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/48 "2015-09-21T08:51:04Z")

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> [@Yersenia\_Pestis](#):
>
> The chaos in Syria is one of the biggest foreign policy developments in this generation… Whats the end game?
> 
> My opinion - US and Russia make a deal to get Assad out and one of his trusted generals (aka Egypt) takes over

The end game could simply be more chaos. Chaos stops dominant regional powers from arising and prevents arab unity.

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**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 9:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/49 "2015-09-21T09:38:57Z")

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I’m guessing the end game is dissolution. In 50 years Iraq and Syria will be geographic trivia, like Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/50 "2015-09-21T12:30:11Z")

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[Kerry is seeking an end game.](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/kerry-syria-assad-timing-negotiable-150919124946684.html)

> [@](#):
>
> US Secretary of State John Kerry has said Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has to go but the timing of his departure should be decided through negotiations.
> 
> \<snip\>
> 
> “We need to get to the negotiation. That is what we’re looking for and we hope Russia and Iran, and any other countries with influence, will help to bring about that, because that’s what is preventing this crisis from ending,” said Kerry.
> 
> “We’re prepared to negotiate. Is Assad prepared to negotiate, really negotiate? Is Russia prepared to bring him to the table?”
> 
> \<snip\>
> 
> Kerry said that Assad’s removal has to be made in the context of the Geneva process and negotiation.
> 
> “It doesn’t have to be on day one or month one. There is a process by which all the parties have to come together and reach an understanding of how this can best be achieved.”

I dunno if there’s any point. Assad has never shown the slightest willingness to step down, nor the Russians nor the Iranians to force the issue. And if he does, what then? Once again, Assad himself is not the whole problem; different rebel factions have very different visions in mind for Syria’s future, and they hate each other at least as much as they hate Assad’s regime.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/51 "2015-09-21T12:55:02Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> [Kerry is seeking an end game.](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/kerry-syria-assad-timing-negotiable-150919124946684.html)
> 
> I dunno if there’s any point. Assad has never shown the slightest willingness to step down, nor the Russians nor the Iranians to force the issue. And if he does, what then? Once again, Assad himself is not the whole problem; different rebel factions have very different visions in mind for Syria’s future, and they hate each other at least as much as they hate Assad’s regime.

How is that an end game? Assad has to go at some unspecified time in the future by some unspecified process. Well, he’s going to die eventually…

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**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/52 "2015-09-21T13:21:58Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> How is that an end game? Assad has to go at some unspecified time in the future by some unspecified process. Well, he’s going to die eventually…

There you go. Make the long-term inevitable your policy goal, and call it a win!  
Seriously, I think **marshmallow** is right. There is no way back to being a functional country for Syria, as such.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/53 "2015-09-21T13:31:35Z")

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> [@Peremensoe](#):
>
> There you go. Make the long-term inevitable your policy goal, and call it a win!  
> Seriously, I think **marshmallow** is right. There is no way back to being a functional country for Syria, as such.

When a country like Spain can barely hold itself together, it should be no surprise that so many of the Humpty Dumpties in the Middle East are subject to not being put back together again once they fracture. Most of them were made up countries anyway, only held together by autocratic rule.

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**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/54 "2015-09-21T13:56:53Z")

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John fucking Kerry. LOL.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/55 "2015-09-21T14:42:42Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> How is that an end game? Assad has to go at some unspecified time in the future by some unspecified process. Well, he’s going to die eventually…

Well, at least Kerry is pushing to get everybody to the table, and stating as a firm position that whatever ultimately comes out of this can’t include Assad. I don’t see what more he could do at this point. The USG has few good options. Boots-on-the-ground intervention would lead to a quagmire worse than Iraq. We’re bombing ISIS, and helping the Iraqi government fight ISIS, but that isn’t going to do anything to end or resolve the Syrian civil war.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/56 "2015-09-21T15:08:56Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Well, at least Kerry is pushing to get everybody to the table, and stating as a firm position that whatever ultimately comes out of this can’t include Assad. I don’t see what more he could do at this point. The USG has few good options. Boots-on-the-ground intervention would lead to a quagmire worse than Iraq. We’re bombing ISIS, and helping the Iraqi government fight ISIS, but that isn’t going to do anything to end or resolve the Syrian civil war.

It’s not an end game. It’s a vague wish not grounded in reality.

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/57 "2015-09-21T15:46:21Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Well, at least Kerry is pushing to get everybody to the table, and stating as a firm position that whatever ultimately comes out of this can’t include Assad. I don’t see what more he could do at this point. The USG has few good options. Boots-on-the-ground intervention would lead to a quagmire worse than Iraq. We’re bombing ISIS, and helping the Iraqi government fight ISIS, but that isn’t going to do anything to end or resolve the Syrian civil war.

He could shut his mouth if he doesn’t have anything but impotent platitudes to offer?

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/58 "2015-09-21T15:54:04Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> He could shut his mouth if he doesn’t have anything but impotent platitudes to offer?

It’s actually worse than that. It makes people think that what we say has no meaning since we don’t plan any follow-through. “Assad must go”, but we’re not going to do anything to make him go. Huh?

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**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/59 "2015-09-21T16:03:11Z")

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It’s simply a case of, “This has gone on long enough; Something must be done!”  
We’re doing something; Therefore, no-one can accuse us of doing nothing.

Also, it makes not one damn bit of difference what we say or do with respect to what other people think. America has been saying Fidel Castro must go for better than 50 years. Made not one damn bit of difference one way or the other with respect to America’s world standing. Syria has been irrelevant on the world stage for quite some time now and it will continue to remain so for some time to come. (Human suffering notwithstanding.)

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**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/end-game-in-syria/731133/60 "2015-09-21T16:11:45Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> He could shut his mouth if he doesn’t have anything but impotent platitudes to offer?

Impotent platitudes are what secretaries of state _do_. It’s called “diplomacy.”

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