Dude, how have you managed to spend time on a message board with, e.g., GIGObuster and wolfpup and yet never even have heard of “detection and attribution” in climate science? Although nobody knows exactly what portion of current warming is due, for instance, to natural variation in solar irradiance, climate scientists overall are very confident that it’s nowhere near most of it. Same for “natural fluctuations”, if by that you mean orbital cycles: all the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that their contribution to warming is very minor (if not actually negative).
Once again, the fact that we can’t know the answer to a complex and far-reaching question exactly doesn’t mean that we can’t develop valid quantitative estimates concerning it. Information is not a rigid binary division between absolute ignorance and perfect knowledge. There’s a hell of a lot of useful stuff in the broad middle ground between them.
Honestly, octopus, for someone on a messageboard devoted to fighting ignorance, you seem surprisingly subservient towards it. Around these parts it’s not considered quite sporting (or for some posters, humanly tolerable) to let ignorance win without putting up a much harder fight against it than you appear willing to do.
I think that the two opposing sides in this debate have some agreement about the facts. However, their ideologies drive them to opposite conclusions.
Some hard-working poor people can lift themselves out of poverty. Others face obstacles, as octopus points out
It misses the point to ask whether these obstacles are of the person’s own making or not. Is an ex-soldier or black teen who has seen so much trouble he’s too depressed to work “responsible” for his own problems? It misses the point just to ask the question. Society should work to fight such obstacles by improving schools, subsidizing childcare and healthcare (both physical and mental), etc. Note that those who have the support (educational, emotional, financial, etc.) to pull themselves out of poverty have already done so. “Liberals” want to help those who don’t.
(And thank heavens only one conservative in the thread is eager to push the meme that “liberals” don’t want to help the disadvantaged; that they want maintain povery as a source of votes. If this were true it would be the right-wing, not the left, pushing for Earned Income Credit, childcare subsidies, etc. :rolleyes: )
Poverty is closely correlated with race. There are no lawns in the ghetto; if a young black man takes a bus ride to the suburbs he’s likely to find himself tazed before he finds a lawn-mowing job! (Recently a young black girl was tazed for exercising the ingenuity to find a shortcut home.)
The conservatives in this thread seem to understand much of this, and are correctly unwilling to estimate what portion of the underclass might find work as entreprenuers.
The U.S. has been shown to have *less *income mobility than the (supposedly more class-conscious) countries of Europe. It would be a good first step if conservatives would acknowledge that fact. Again, poor people with the wherewithal (education, emotional strengths, etc.) to pull themselves out of poverty have already done so. It is the utilitarian and humanitarian duty of society to ease the way for the rest. No, don’t blame the victims, help them!
The poverty rate is running a bit over 14% or 46 million people. Are you really claiming that there are enough lawns out there to support them when each worker needs 250 lawns to make a decent living? Even if those poor people only need one worker in a family of six, you will need to find over 1.9 million lawns to mow. And, of course, you have to be able to get from your high rise or the projects where you can’t park your equipment out to the suburbs where the lawns are and you will lose money during droughts and times of heavy rains when you have nothing to mow or can’t get onto the lawns to do the job without tearing them up.
I am not claiming that it cannot be done. I am pointing out that you blithely ignore reality when you make silly claims that there would be no problem if they just put more effort into it.
It is also not something that one can simply start up on a shoestring or part time and develop into a thriving business as easily as you pretend. As to your $30 a lawn, (to say nothing of one hour per lawn), what gives you the odd idea that the people who are willing to pay $30 are not already being served by the outfits that already exist? I might pay someone $30 to mow my lawn, but it takes over two hours to do the basic mowing even before one considers trimming, bagging, etc. If I lived on a postage stamp that could be mowed in an hour, I certainly would not pay $30 to have it done. And, of course, your $30 is not per hour, it is piecework that ignores the time required to load, travel, and unload equipment (unless you miraculously find an entire neighborhood that you could mow without having to travel between sites).
I have not been persuaded that a $15/hour minimum wage is a good idea, but your arguments (and imaginary math) are pushing me in that direction.
We know the temperature difference that those coal plants caused? Climate, in my understanding, is a highly non-linear system. In highly non-linear systems there typically isn’t a linear correlation between one variable in the input side and the output.
So according to that article arguments can be made for both sides of the minimum wage debate? So not only is a rough estimate not known the sign in front of the estimate is not known either. I guess I could make up a number and have it nit picked. But you know and I know that that is a fruitless endeavor. You just need to trust octopus that performing value added labor adds value.
Oh, I don’t know…maybe because it’s not only beside the point but wouldn’t prove anything even if an answer could be determined, but also because it goes to issues I didn’t raise and have no obligation or desire to get into.
My point was in response to a question of what I’d say to someone who told me no jobs were available. I replied that if that were truly the case then he or she could make their own jobs and listed a number of ways they could offer services in order to do so. In doing so I also mentioned that someone could make $30 and hour mowing lawns and BPC pretty much went ballistic and claimed they could make no such sum. Then he decided to start this thread to see if anyone thought people could actually make money using the methods I suggested, with the subject of lawn mowing becoming the main focus. I made a few posts correcting some erroneous assumptions about it and trying to show to anyone interested how they could go about it.
For some reason you decided to come blustering into the thread attempting to obfuscate things over issues I never raised and that don’t have a whit of bearing on whether any individuals who might try mowing or any of the other services I mentioned are able to do so successfully.
So I’m not going to play along with your hijack because it has nothing to do with the question asked by the OP, which was to learn whether income opportunities like the ones I suggested can really pay off like I said they could. What I’ve attempted to do is show that they do. So to anyone reading the thread who might want to give any of the jobs I suggested a go or recommend them to someone else most certainly should do so. As I’ve said already, with the advent of the internet and Youtube videos it’s possible to learn much about how these businesses work and how to perform them. In the old days people would have to learn through apprenticeship of some sort or by hiring on as an employee of someone else in order to gain from experience knowledge they can learn now while sitting at their computer. I would suggest also that they not trouble their minds wondering about how many other poor people can do what they’re doing. They should just go out and do it, because wondering about all that other stuff has absolutely no bearing on how successful they’ll be. They should let the Kimstus of the world concentrate on eliminating poverty for everyone else while in the meantime they’re knocking out $30 an hour (or $60 to $90 an hour if they’re entrepreneurial enough to hire and manage others) and living a much better quality life much sooner than they would by waiting around for you to convince enough people to give up enough in taxes to elevate them and every other poor person to that same level.
Part of the problem here is that you are throwing landscaping into the mix, which is a completely different type of business than a simple mow and blow operation. You also don’t know what your guy had in mind in the way of overhead. He may have been talking about maintaining offices with perhaps an employee to answer the phones, and operating large trucks to haul rocks and other materials used in landscaping. He’s probably also talking about offsetting money spent on sprinkler systems, ponds, landscape timbers, lots and lots of rock, truckloads of soil and sod, etc.
Look, this is not rocket science. If someone mows and grooms a lawn in an hour and gets paid $30 for doing so, all he’s out is maybe 50 cents in gas and the amortized cost of his equipment, which, assuming he has only a mower, edger, weedeater and a blower, may run another 50 cents or dollar per lawn. So if you want to get technical you could claim he’s only making $28 or $29 per lawn. Big deal. He’ll more than offset that anyway with the occasional lawn that pays $35 or more or asks for extra services like bagging, for which an extra $5 per lawn is typical among those I’ve talked to. If he’s working from home and has no other overhead then virtually everything he makes is taxable income. So just for the hell of it, let’s say Larry the Lawn Guy clears $28 per lawn. He’s built his mowing service up to the point where he’s mowing 6 to 8 lawns a day, which is quite doable. He’s now netting a pre-tax profit of $168 to $224 dollars a day based on a five day work week. This isn’t rocket science. I know a guy who runs a mowing service with three employees. They start mowing at 8 a.m. and knock off about 2 p.m., after which he spends the rest of the afternoon sitting around the pool of his apartment complex. He charges $30 minimum and pays his helpers $10 an hour. They bust their butts and do 3 to 4 lawns per hour, which nets him at least the $60 to $90 an hour I already mentioned. The guy who mowed for my aunt before she passed away did the same thing, sans swimming pool. It’s ridiculous to think that one guy mowing lawns at $30 per hour needs to gross $150,000 to net $50,000. Where’s that extra $20 per lawn going, do you think?
I don’t know what the deal is with you and Kimstu but this is silly. I’ve said nothing about how every person living in poverty can make a living mowing lawns. I said that the opportunity is out there should someone want to do it. The guy in your own cite said there’s no shortage of paying customers, so barring personal shortcomings what’s the problem?
Further, no one needs anywhere near 250 individual customers to make the kind of money I’m talking about. Let’s say a guy is busting his ass and mowing 8 lawns a day and that he’s mowing them at this rate every week. 5 days a week times 8 lawns a day = 40 lawns. Period. And they’re paying $1,200 a week less gas and incidentals. You want to tell me again why anyone needs 250 customers to make a decent living cutting grass?
In the event our would-be mower lives in a high-rise or project this is correct. A solution would be to rent a small storage area and store his gear there. A mower, weedeater, edger and blower don’t take up much room. And so what if they have to drive to where the $30/hour work is? Last time I checked people were driving to their minimum wage jobs and not giving it a thought. I would think someone in such circumstances would be delighted to be able to drive to a $30/hour job every day.
Yep, these are variables that can impact on one’s yearly take. But they don’t happen that often nor for as long in most parts of the country. But apart from that, don’t you think it would be silly to say the least for someone to reject the prospect of doing $30/hour work because he or she may not be able to work a few days or weeks out of the year? You’ve got to be kidding me.
It’s not silly at all. I think I’ve demonstrated pretty well that demand exists and the numbers add up. So…ain’t nothin’ to it but to do it.
And you know this how? I know people who’ve done it.
I’ve already described why prospective customers exist. And again your own cite says there’s no shortage of paying customers.
I’ve been all through large cities all over the midwest and virtually every lawn is of a size that it could be mowed in an hour or less. The exceptions would be expensive homes on large lots or rural homes on large lots. Just about any lawn from upper middle class down is doable in an hour.
So now you want people to abandon the prospect of $30 an hour work because they’ll have to spend a couple minutes loading and unloading their equipment? How long do you think it takes to lift a weedeater or blower out of a truck, or to lift a mower and set it on the ground? Even running it down a ramp is a matter of seconds.
My math is perfectly fine. And it’s easily verified if anyone wants to check. Drive around a few normal neighborhoods (i.e., not expensive or rural homes on large lots) and knock on a few doors. Ask people if they pay to have their lawn mowed and if so how much they pay. Then ask them how long their lawn guy is there. I think you’ll find my numbers are right on the money for most parts of the country. You can also visit lawn care forums like the one you found already. Browse around or ask some of the guys what they charge for mowing, how much extra for bagging, how long their average lawn takes. I think you’ll find my numbers are right on the money for most parts of the country.
I don’t think Ralph (or Norton) would last long in an MBA program. Telling everyone to get out of poverty with an advanced degree is even less realistic than the lawn mowing idea.
There was, since New York had a free comm\unity college system even back then. Free college also, but that might have been harder. My father, who had to work after graduating high school because of family poverty, took some night classes, but two kids made it too hard.
But back then you could get ahead without college, and he managed to advance quite far in the UN.
However Gleason played Kramden as not very smart, the reason for my comment.
And we are back to your fantasies. You are on to amortizing machinery that the poor person could not buy, to begin with. Used, the equipment you talk about would still cost $300, or more.
And your fantasy about how the jobs are already out there waiting are more of the same. There is not a high demand for that service that is not already being filled. You are correct that a few people could probably edge their way into such a service, but the notion that there are thousands of people in cities who are eager to pay someone $120 a month to get their lawn mowed, (when they are only saving four hours of work in that month), is nonsense. The people who want their lawns mowed are, for the most part, already getting that service.
And, again, I am not arguing that such a goal is hopeless; I am pointing out that your claims that it would be no big deal to get established and make a substantial increase on one’s income is based on imaginary numbers, both in terms of expenditure and availability of customers. You are trying to claim that it really is no big deal to get into such a business and prosper while I am pointing out that it could work for a few people, but does nothing to address the issues of large numbers (even ignoring the fantasies in your claims).
Seems to me that a lot of the advice given to poor people is fine for an individual (go to school, create your own business, don’t have children, etc.), but is largely ineffective if everyone followed it.
We’re seeing that now with college education. When everyone goes to college, the value of a college degree plummets. You can tell a kid to major only in STEM, but what good does that do if everyone else is majoring in STEM and there is a limited STEM career pool?
The same goes for poor people. “Go back to school and learn a trade” is excellent advice assuming you’re the only person in the neighborhood who listens to it. But if all the guys on the block decide they want to be electricians, carpenters, and barbers, then the neighborhood suddenly has a bunch of skilled craftsmen looking for work. Sure, they can disperse. But that’s incredibly risky.
The projects are full of budding entrepreneurs. You will always be able to find someone willing to braid your hair for $20, watch your kids for a swipe on the EBT card, or drive you to work for a small price. But if everyone and their mama has a hustle, and they are all hustling the same impoverished customer base, then folks aren’t going to be raking in big dough. It will be just enough to supplement their meager earnings so that they have a small cushion. But not a way to get out of poverty. (And surprise, surprise…a lot of these enterprises are illegal. Legal enterprises always require an initial outlay. Hustles often don’t.)
Well, I’m not the one who brought a comparison with a TV character into the discussion, I was just rolling with it.
And besides, why does every time someone has an idea (lawn mowing, going to school, moving to a better place), naysayers pop up saying “Well not EVERYONE would benefit from that so that idea is stupid!”
Who is telling EVERY poor person to do the same things? I think the basic thought is just DO SOMETHING! Don’t sit around whining about how you are poor and life is hard boo hoo hoo!
There are over a million illegal (or unauthorized or undocumented or whatever term you want to use) immigrants from El Salvador and Guatemala. THEY managed to move ALL THE WAY to the US, and somehow poor people can’t find a way to move across town?
A good quote I stole from the Rational Harry Potter series - “The world around us redunds with opportunities, explodes with opportunities, which nearly all folk ignore because it would require them to violate a habit of thought”
And it seems like the habit of thought is “Poor people can’t do it”
We’ve hired a bunch of small scale entrepreneurs over the years - mow lawns, care for sprinklers, wash windows, snow removal, poopy scooping (probably the most profitable), driveway sealing, walk dogs, clean and stain the deck, clean the house, pet sit.
You have to be close enough to an area where people are willing to pay for these services to make it worthwhile. Living in North Minneapolis you don’t have a nearby community that needs it. We live close to the East Side of St. Paul.
Unless public transportation is amazing where you are, you need a car. A reliable car.
Once the car is taken care of, most of these guys had very little capital. My housekeeper used my vaccuum while she got started until she got her own. The dog walker needed some treats and baggies
If you are poor however, overcoming the hurdles of transportation, getting customers, and the initial investment is tough. You have to come up with the money for the first batch of driveway sealant because you aren’t getting paid until the first job is done. And then you need to set aside money for the second batch of driveway sealant.
Our mowing guy and our snow removal guy both do other seasonal work - the mower removes snow and the snow remover mows. They fertilize and rake leaves (well, blow them) and set up Christmas lights. They also both charge for the season. It didn’t snow much last year, so the snow remover made out like a bandit. But when it does snow he does 40 clients in a morning - and his snowblower broke in the middle of a snowfall last year. He hand shoveled. Its a good thing he is a strong young man.
We’ve found most of these guys through the internet - so you need to be savvy enough to be able to use the internet effectively. I don’t hire random people off Craigslist. I’ve also found them through referrals, which means you have to get your first jobs. In other words, marketing yourself into this sort of work isn’t a snap. Once you get a successful business going, you can end up with plenty of work via referrals in the right neighborhood (my dog walker hired college students to walk dogs - he had too many to walk). But that first step is a doozy.
I think the accounting and taxes for most businesses like this is pretty easy - and there are plenty of small business accounting seminars offered by most states to get you going. You need some basic math skills, but you could do it with t-accounts in a notebook and never invest in Quickbooks. It isn’t like you are going to be doing straight line depreciation of a lawn mower over 10 years. However, you have to be not scared of math and have the self confidence to do it. Even a few hundred dollars for the year is a lot of money to someone getting paid $30 an hour to clean a house.
For someone who has always been poor, some of these jobs are things only middle class people do. If you’ve grown up in poverty, do you even know that people wash and stain decks every year or seal driveways? Does it occur to you that someone might pay you to put up Christmas lights? A lot of these things are things you learn to do or see done because you grew up middle class.
Because you are going to be serving the middle class, you need to present an appearance that is comfortable to the middle class. Racism and classism is real. Hardworking immigrant is usually comfortable. Hardworking well spoken tidy young black man is less so. Tattoo’d skinhead thug - likely to get very few clients. If you don’t know how to make yourself appeal to the middle class because you simply haven’t ever been exposed to it, you aren’t going to be successful. And even if you are aware how to do it - racism and classism is real.
But these don’t really turn into middle class jobs often. Its better than working part time at McDonalds with no benefits - and in states with the Medicaid expansion the ACA helps with health insurance. $30 an hour to clean a house sounds great, but if you manage to get the clients to put in an eight hour day and spend two non-billable hours driving from house to house and still need to go home an manage your books - even if you hire an accountant, you are going to need to be logging. So with a full client list, assuming no one ever goes on vacation - including yourself, you make $46,800 a year. But you are putting a lot of miles on your car. You have self employment taxes to pay. You are buying cleaning supplies. You are going to rather quickly want insurance. Its better than minimum wage, but your best case scenario is that you are still below the average U.S. household income - until you start exploiting the labor of college students :). And a lot of that list is seasonal. There are only so many things you can do in Minnesota in the Winter in that low skill entrepreneurial space.
Over the years, I’ve encouraged a number of people to become entrepreneurs to no avail.
It’s never to lift them out of abject poverty but to increase their income, take control of their
lives, and work less. Generally, they work for a company and could do it themselves. One
person is in the same field I am, has attempted to start his own business, but has failed.
Not once did he ask for my advice. His mentality was, “If I do it your way, then it’s your
success. If I do it my way, then I can claim success.” The problem was his way made no
sense, and my way was merely common sense. Another guy is a very talented shade tree
mechanic. He had all the tools, worked at an auto parts store, and was very passionate
about automobiles. I urged him to become a mobile mechanic where he could make four
times more, but he quit his job and went to work at a office supply store. Now he’s part of
the working poor.
What I resent most about some these posts is the negativity. I believe in my friends more than they
believe in themselves, and many of you liberals believe in them less. Modesty aside, I know I’m
an ambitious person and don’t expect other people to be like me. The answer isn’t for all
poor people to cut lawns. The answer is to do something. Take action. Or stop doing something that is
putting them in poverty. The worst thing is inaction and waiting for government or someone else
to save them.
I think its safe to say I consider myself an entrepreneur. I’ve been on the dope since 2002, and in that time I’ve run two very different businesses. My first business was a catering business. It did okay for a couple of years. Then I tried to expand, and it all fell apart very horribly and when it ended I was thousands of dollars in debt.
I am now a photographer. I’ve been a full time photographer since 2012, and it has been very successful. It took 2 and a half years though before I started to make enough money to live. I am now having a few problems with my health: so I need to restructure the business in order to keep it viable.
When I started as a photographer I had 3 friends who were also photographers who went into business at the same time as me. None of them lasted longer than a year. And they didn’t last because running your own business is very very hard: you need to know your numbers, you need to know your market, you need to have a business plan, you need to have Plan B, C and D ready to go, you need to have a plan in case things go wrong. But you also have to be able to see the “bigger picture” which is something I could do but my friends couldn’t. I’ve taken my business in a particular direction, targeting a niche I know well and can look after, and currently things are going well.
The bit I quoted from you? What that shows is that you don’t know your numbers. I run a photography business: all I really need is a camera right? But lets look at some of the costs for my business that you’ve missed that would be required for a lawn business as well. You need office space. I work from home: but a percentage of the rent is allocated to the business. You need a phone. You need the internet, and a website. You need to cover your vehicle expenses: insurance, petrol, maintenance. You need an advertising and promotion budget. Insurances. Accounting software. You need to put money aside to pay your taxes. You need to put money aside to fix your camera/mower in case they decide to die on you.
For photographers there are plenty of handy tools out there to help you do the maths. Here is one:
The default figures are actually very accurate. (Close to my NZ numbers.) In order to cover my Cost of Doing Business my base hourly rate is $180.00 per hour. That doesn’t mean I get to pocket $178.00.
When you take the time to actually crunch the numbers things get scary fast. And you have to work your ass off. You need to be an expert in customer service. And an expert photographer. And you need to have at least a basic understanding of accounting. And understand how to market your business. And to understand that no matter how well you are doing it could come crashing down very quickly and it might not even be your fault.
Being in business is hard and business is very risky: and to be an entrepreneur you actually have to look at the world in a slightly different way. And not everyone can do it. I’ve got a friend who would be a fantastic event manager but he won’t make the move to free-lance because he has a family to look after and won’t take the risk. And starting your own business is an extremely risky thing for poor people to do: because it can take time for a business to start making money, and the probability of failure of a venture with zero capital is very very high.
I think the point behind the OP is that some will succeed and lift themselves out of poverty. Those that don’t succeed will still be poor, so they will have lost nothing.
People are generally rational actor. They make the decision that seems best for them given the available information.
It a group of people is consistently acting in a way that doesn’t make sense to you, either they are acting contrary to basically every other human on earth, or there is something that you aren’t seeing.
Chances are there is something that you aren’t seeing.
Um… I really don’t think it works like that. When you fail at a business venture, you lose money. When you lose money when you didn’t actually have money to spare… Well, which can you soonest do without, your heat, your lights, your rent, or your water? And how are you going to cover the cascade of costs that come from any one of these things getting shut off, such as the fee to reinstate them?
