# Erfworld: Book 2 discussion (spoilers)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528>\
**Category:** Cafe Society\
**Created:** [June 9, 2010, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528 "2010-06-09T12:58:43Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 23

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [April 10, 2013, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/441 "2013-04-10T00:42:10Z")

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To add to which, Stanley doesn’t necessarily know about the inferno, and Parson has no need to tell him.

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**Author:** ![Lightray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightray/32/391_2.png) [@Lightray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightray)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2013, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/442 "2013-04-19T14:17:09Z")

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[Prequel Text Update](http://www.erfworld.com/2013/04/inner-peace-through-superior-firepower-%e2%80%93-episode-066/)

Rather long, and some _very_ interesting information about Charlie…

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2013, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/443 "2013-04-19T14:18:19Z")

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I laughed at “Easteros and Westeregg”.

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**Author:** ![thinksnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thinksnow/32/2849_2.png) [@thinksnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thinksnow)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2013, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/444 "2013-04-19T16:25:19Z")

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Interesting that Charlie must be at least 11,000 turns old! Lotta power to accumulate in that much time.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [April 19, 2013, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/445 "2013-04-19T22:34:16Z")

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That’s not _that_ old. Assuming that an Erf turn is, on average, the same length as an Earth day, that’s just a little over 30 years.

What’s more interesting is the revelation that he’s a Carnymancer.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 9:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/446 "2013-04-25T09:39:28Z")

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> [@Balance](#):
>
> Ah, I see the communication problem is covered: [Parson has his eyebook with him.](http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/?px=%2F2013-02-20.jpg) So he should be able to communicate with Stanley at least, and probably Wanda and Sizemore as well. He knows it’s not a secure channel, but **Chronos** has a point–there’s probably not much Charlie could do with the information to make matters worse.
> 
> That leaves persuading Stanley, via text messages, to transfer the capital. That’s the main reason I had for Parson razing and rebuilding the city to stop the fire–switching your capital into a city that’s currently an inferno doesn’t sound like the greatest idea, and I figured Stanley was likely to balk at that, if nothing else. No capital transfer, no portal. No portal, no Sizemore to put out the inferno. Hence, I was looking for a way for Parson to deal with the fire without Sizemore. Of course, it still depends on him being able to raze and rebuild off-turn, and it neglects the Chekhov’s Dirtamancy Info from the klog.

New comic up, and you’re mostly on the money…except for one _tiiiiiiny_ little problem.

The boop continues to hit the fan.

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**Author:** ![bldysabba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ecccb3/32.png) [@bldysabba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bldysabba)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2013, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/447 "2013-04-25T21:25:08Z")

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Has this announcement been put up in this thread? [http://www.erfworld.com/2013/03/xin-is-leaving-after-book-2/](http://www.erfworld.com/2013/03/xin-is-leaving-after-book-2/)  
Sorry if it has already.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2013, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/448 "2013-05-01T11:34:58Z")

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And another new comic. Parson fiddles with his eyebook as Jetstone burns.

My money’s on Stanley coming to the rescue via a capital change. Imagine the embarrassment for Parson - the Perfect Warlord is outmaneuvered and has to be saved by the biggest idiot in Erfworld this side of Bogroll.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2013, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/449 "2013-05-01T12:22:10Z")

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Something’s occurred to me about Earthworlders, meanwhile… Parson is significantly bigger than Erfworlders (yeah, he’s Heavy, but he’s also about twice their height). And when he was summoned, everyone around him was surprised to see that he didn’t have any visible stats. But Judy seems to be about normal Erf size, and nobody’s commented about anything unusual with her stats. Why the inconsistency?

Another thought, meanwhile: Parson by all rights should know about the existence of the Arkenshoes. He knows from his Stupid Meal that “there are four known Arkentools”, and he’s had several weeks to do nothing but wargaming. He has to have asked around what the fourth one is, and we now know that one of his subjects has extensive knowledge of them. That, in turn, would lead to him learning of the overlady Judy Gale, summoned from another world, and who returned to Kansas. Why have we never seen him processing this information?

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**Author:** ![bldysabba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ecccb3/32.png) [@bldysabba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bldysabba)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2013, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/450 "2013-05-01T17:26:32Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Something’s occurred to me about Earthworlders, meanwhile… Parson is significantly bigger than Erfworlders (yeah, he’s Heavy, but he’s also about twice their height). And when he was summoned, everyone around him was surprised to see that he didn’t have any visible stats. But Judy seems to be about normal Erf size, and nobody’s commented about anything unusual with her stats. Why the inconsistency?
> 
> Another thought, meanwhile: Parson by all rights should know about the existence of the Arkenshoes. He knows from his Stupid Meal that “there are four known Arkentools”, and he’s had several weeks to do nothing but wargaming. He has to have asked around what the fourth one is, and we now know that one of his subjects has extensive knowledge of them. That, in turn, would lead to him learning of the overlady Judy Gale, summoned from another world, and who returned to Kansas. Why have we never seen him processing this information?

Judy could have been a small Earth person, while Parson was a big one? Maybe Judy came over as a child, like Dorothy, and didn’t grow in size, but aged, because of how Erfworld works?  
As for Parson and the shoes, for one thing, Wanda tends to be secretive about her past. For another, she hasn’t been around much. But yes, he’s made no reference to the fourth Arkentool, which is somewhat odd.

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**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\
**Post date:** [May 1, 2013, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/451 "2013-05-01T17:46:15Z")

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> [@Gyrate](#):
>
> New comic up, and you’re mostly on the money…except for one _tiiiiiiny_ little problem.

My “raze and then rebuild” notion has also been shot down now, if we take Charlie’s response at face value.

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Something’s occurred to me about Earthworlders, meanwhile… Parson is significantly bigger than Erfworlders (yeah, he’s Heavy, but he’s also about twice their height). And when he was summoned, everyone around him was surprised to see that he didn’t have any visible stats. But Judy seems to be about normal Erf size, and nobody’s commented about anything unusual with her stats. Why the inconsistency?

For the most part, the people we’ve seen interacting with Judy are people who have known her for some time (Olive), are drugged (Jillian), or both (Wanda). Those who are familiar with her peculiarities would have little reason to comment, and Jillian’s perceptions were distorted enough that she may simply not have been able to tell. The other Faq units who encountered Judy saw her only briefly, and had other things to hold their attention. It could be some time before any of them think to comment on it.

> [@](#):
>
> Another thought, meanwhile: Parson by all rights should know about the existence of the Arkenshoes. He knows from his Stupid Meal that “there are four known Arkentools”, and he’s had several weeks to do nothing but wargaming. He has to have asked around what the fourth one is, and we now know that one of his subjects has extensive knowledge of them. That, in turn, would lead to him learning of the overlady Judy Gale, summoned from another world, and who returned to Kansas. Why have we never seen him processing this information?

He may well have learned of them and processed the information off-panel, at least what Jack knew of the story, and mostly dismissed it because the Shoes appear to be out of reach. We haven’t seen it because it hasn’t been relevant to the main story yet, and pacing has already been something of a sore spot.

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**Author:** ![Lightray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightray/32/391_2.png) [@Lightray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightray)\
**Post date:** [May 15, 2013, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/452 "2013-05-15T01:48:26Z")

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[Comic update](http://www.erfworld.com/2013/05/book-2-%e2%80%93-page-109/)

… Actually, I’m not sure how many updates since this thread last saw action. Anyway, this time Stanley actually _does_ something (useful), and has a pretty cool moment.

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**Author:** ![thinksnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thinksnow/32/2849_2.png) [@thinksnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thinksnow)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/453 "2013-05-20T12:07:26Z")

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Text update, and Parson tries his hand at spellcasting.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/454 "2013-05-20T12:49:57Z")

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When I get a chance, I need to see if I can rationalize that number.

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**Author:** ![Lightray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightray/32/391_2.png) [@Lightray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightray)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/455 "2013-05-20T14:00:47Z")

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I don’t think the bracer is lying to Parson. He’d theoretically have a 98% chance of casting that spell, except that since Fate is going to drop a city on his head every time he tries to do so, it’s actually a 0% chance.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/456 "2013-05-20T19:16:34Z")

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Disappointing… The number appears to be random, not derived as the ratio of two integers, as I would expect for a number in a world that works like Erf appears to.

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**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/457 "2013-05-20T20:09:28Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> When I get a chance, I need to see if I can rationalize that number.

It’s simple.

I better spoiler it, though:For every billion times he casts it, he will be successful 980,104,773 times.

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**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/458 "2013-05-20T20:43:49Z")

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BTW, that number factors down to 3, 23, 31, and 458207.

I’m not entirely certain how relevant this information is to the task of rationalizing the number more neatly than I did above, but it does make me suspect that Mr. Balder pulled it out of his ass.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lightray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightray/32/391_2.png) [@Lightray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightray)\
**Post date:** [May 20, 2013, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/459 "2013-05-20T20:45:51Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Disappointing… The number appears to be random, not derived as the ratio of two integers, as I would expect for a number in a world that works like Erf appears to.

You seriously thought that the probability would be solely determined by two variables? If you think the Erfworld rules are so simple, why would there be a need for Predictamancy? They wouldn’t need Parson’s calculator-watch or even an abacus to figure out the probabilities; they could get by on fingers and toes.

_Of course_ it’s more complex than it being a ratio of two integers.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 21, 2013, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/erfworld-book-2-discussion-spoilers/542528/460 "2013-05-21T01:43:14Z")

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Of course it’d be determined by more than two variables. But the result should still be expressible as a ratio of two numbers. Like, if A = w/x + y/z, it depends on four variables. But if w = 3, x = 5, y = 7, and z = 11, then A = 68/55.

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