You can’t subtract a t, an s, and a couple spaces on your own?
Not that Erickson necessarily understands that. All of us who have any political views tend to overestimate their popularity. It comes from hanging out mostly with like-minded people – “How could X have won?! Nobody I know voted for him!” – and, in this age of hypersegmented media, from getting most of our news and editorials from like-minded sources. But nowadays, for some reason, American RWs take that illusion to purely psychotic levels. They’re not even living on the same planet as the majority, any more, they’re living on a planet where they are the majority.
You have to remember, the TP nut jobs think they are winning by shutting down the government. And while some of them have advanced degrees from higher education, I would bet they didn’t really pay attention in history classes. So they probably think if there is a split, they will come out on top, defeating those lousy muslim commies and the RINO fat cats, instead of being the fringe group that doesn’t have enough substance to sustain itself like the Bull Moose party.
I don’t think that would work. I doubt that 60% all have the same interests.
They’d probably need a third, fourth,…twentyfirst? party to make everyone feel they were adequately represented. (i.e. 60% like to bitch if it’s not their way)
I’m sure Erickson is wrong, but even on a theoretical level it ought to be anyone that if the Republican Party failed to stop the ACA, a smaller third party isn’t going to fare any better.
I disagree. I think a more moderate Republican party and a ‘Conservative’ party would be good for all parts of the country. In those areas completely dominated by Democrats, a moderate party might actually be able to win some seats. And in areas now completely dominated by Republicans, there would actually be two viable parties.
In the short term, the Democrats would be the dominant party of the three, but I don’t think any of them ends up with an obvious majority and controlling both houses of congress for the long run. Of course, if the ‘Conservative’ party then implodes and gets re-absorbed back into the Republicans, then we’re back to the two party model we’ve played at for most of our history. But I would view that as a good thing overall.
60% want a third party, that does not mean all of them are thinking of the same kind of party.
But all presidents henceforth would be Dems, unless the GOP and the TP get up a fusion-ticket, which in most states is illegal (because the Pubs made it so, back in the late 19th Century).
Wait, how can the GOP’s RW splitting off and then being reabsorbed both be good things?
Some people apparently put purity above winning.
Many of those people are insane enough to believe that only a smaller, purer party can win.
And we can never let them have power lest they decide to keep it by any means necessary.
David Frum: A tea party exit would be a blessing for GOP.
60% of Americans have no understanding of how first past the post works or why a third party is simply completely unfeasible.
You know, given how incredibly, monumentally bad Republicans appear to be at reading polls, maybe those of us who laugh at the notion of a Republican split are being too generous. They might believe they have the support. They always think they have the support. Reality is not in their playbook right now.
I know that I honestly thought that they were just trying to make the best of bad polls during last year’s presidential race. I thought they knew they were trailing, but were just trying desperately to spin it. I thought people like adaher were just shilling for a doomed candidate.
But they believed it. God help us, they believed it.
What if they believe it now?
OTOH, they do manage to have something close to a three-party system in both the UK and Canada, despite not having PR.
I think that might be less a matter of incompetence than denial.
Personally, I think we need a third party so that the RWNJ can split off and wither like they deserve. As long as they can use the Republican party as cover, they have far more power than their actual numbers call for. Split them off and they will end up like the Greens or Libertarians, still there and able to influence things more in proportion to their actual portion of the population.
Considering their propensity for things like “unskewing” polls so they say what Republicans want to hear, it’s definitely denial. Like jsgoddess says, “Reality is not in their playbook right now”; they are genuinely delusional.
Rather like picking the mercury out of a barometer to make it rain. Sympathetic magic.