# Estimate the chance of a regime change in Russia **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 18, 2022, 8:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990 "2022-04-18T08:20:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2022, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/82 "2022-04-23T08:26:14Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > anybody else noticing that Putin is always “holding the desk” on recent videos? … maybe he is trying to disguise a tremor or something … does not look like a natural hand position, does it? This acting is like a bad junior high school play–it looks extremely fake and concocted. If Putin really was that infirm this video never would have been made public. What a farce. And why? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2022, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/83 "2022-04-23T23:57:22Z")
It could well have been the best he’s been in weeks, and nobody has had the guts to tell him he looks and sounds like he is about to expire any minute. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2022, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/84 "2022-04-24T00:07:31Z")
> [@JoseB](#): > > China might. They still remember that Outer Manchuria (not exactly a sliver of land; it is about 1,000,000 km2 in area) was theirs, the 2001 treaty notwithstanding. And in the 1970s they actually fought real border skirmishes with the Soviets, which didn’t escalate into a full-blown war basically by the Grace of God. Basically the Soviets secretly reached out to the US via back channels and asked “Hey, you wanna’ gang up on China?” and the US said no thank you. So the USSR didn’t want to fight a war that would leave them hurt and the West untouched. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2022, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/85 "2022-04-24T04:54:57Z")
Don’t look to the oligarchs to push for changes. They don’t have [high life expectancy](https://www.newsweek.com/oligarchs-murder-suicide-1699766). > [@](#): > > Questions look set to be asked after two Russian oligarchs, both linked to gas giants, apparently murdered their wives and daughters before killing themselves—within two days of each other. They are now to [five deaths](https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-oligarch-who-has-died-since-putin-invaded-ukraine-full-list-1700022) since the invasion started. Keeping quiet seems to be a good way to stay breathing. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2022, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/86 "2022-04-24T06:46:58Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > It could well have been the best he’s been in weeks, and nobody has had the guts to tell him he looks and sounds like he is about to expire any minute. Maybe, but it was not necessary to shoot that from the side with Putin’s desk-grabbing hand not only showing, but featured. Russian knows propaganda–they knew exactly what they wanted this video to convey. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2022, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/87 "2022-04-24T17:26:31Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Maybe, but it was not necessary to shoot that from the side with Putin’s desk-grabbing hand not only showing, but featured. Maybe his other side (which we can’t really see) would have been worse. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2022, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/88 "2022-04-25T01:55:50Z")
This is going to sound stupid, but… Is Putin as crazy as Hitler was do you suspect? Possibly slightly less unhinged? If Hitler had access to nuclear weapons at the very end in Berlin, wouldn’t he have used them as a final “fuck you!” to the world before suiciding? So I ask: do you think Putin will? Is that what it’s going to be? Don’t “dare” poke the bear too much nor back it into a corner, lest it unleash it’s nuclear arsenal in a last final show of defiance? ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2022, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/89 "2022-04-30T12:14:24Z")
My wild stab: losing this war – most likely by hanging on by fingernails until Ukraine is so well armed and trained that fairly soon they will just roll them up – will not directly cause regime change. Because Putin has systematically eliminated all possible opposition. What will happen is Putin will get physically and mentally weaker, the loss in Ukraine taking a toll on what already appears to be a sick and incoherent man. Eventually he will become prey. Perhaps a China-backed coalition will stage a coup. Who knows? But it will be abrupt and probably violent, as Putin no more has the capacity to relinquish power than trump did, and has decades of practice in holding on to it. He’d like to die peacefully in bed with his hands around Russia’s neck. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2022, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/90 "2022-04-30T16:36:52Z")
agreed, Putin stays (relatively) strong by weakening all others around him … “standing out by bringing the avg. niveau/level downwards instead of upwards” possibly working for him (on a personal level), while making russia weaker all around … and the sorry state the russian armed forces are in, is testament to this. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2022, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/91 "2022-05-01T20:28:55Z")
That’s the problem with countries like Russia that are obsessed with having a “strong leader”. They don’t realize that strength is relative, and that a strong leader usually means a weak country. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/92 "2022-05-14T23:12:38Z")
According to this interview with a Russian news media person with good military sources, there is general support for the war in the military, and in fact for going way beyond what Putin had announced, like trying to take all of Ukraine, expanding Russia’s borders to Poland, and so on. My takeaway is, don’t expect the military to look for regime change. > **[Interview: Why The 'Failure' Of Russian Spies, Generals Is Leading To...](https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-ukraine-war-setbacks-strategy-generals-putin/31839737.html)** > > Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov discusses the blame game under way in the Kremlin and why the Russian military's setbacks in Ukraine are making the elite more “aggressively pro-war.” ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/93 "2022-05-15T04:34:21Z")
I saw this article today and although I’d love it to be true, an actual coup seems like a very specific thing: > **[Putin coup is underway and 'impossible to stop,' says Ukraine's military...](https://news.yahoo.com/putin-coup-underway-impossible-stop-104151388.html)** > > The process of overthrowing Russian President Vladimir Putin has started and can't be stopped, Ukraine's military intelligence chief told Sky News. So this is _underway_? Troops are kicking down Putin’s bedroom door right now? Somehow I feel as though that is not going to be tomorrow’s headline. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/94 "2022-05-15T05:12:23Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > I saw this article today and although I’d love it to be true, an actual coup seems like a very specific thing: There is more gossip in the article than the typical issue of _Us Weekly_. I’m surprised it doesn’t include a list of “10 Ways to Disable a T-72 Tank With a Hair Scrunchie (You’ll Never Guess #7!)”. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/95 "2022-05-15T11:53:15Z")
Speculation that senior Russian military leaders are being suspended or even arrested, but so far, just speculation, no confirmation: > **[Russian military leaders ‘sacked and arrested’ amid heavy battlefield losses](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-russian-military-gerasimov-ukraine-b2077884.html?amp)** > > Speculation about Valery Gerasimov comes after he was absent from Moscow Victory Day parade ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/96 "2022-05-15T11:55:26Z")
And a public attack on the competence of the Minister of Defence by a former commander of separatist forces in eastern Ukraine: > **[Ex-separatist commander says Russian military chief 'criminally negligent'](https://www.reuters.com/world/ex-separatist-commander-says-russian-military-chief-criminally-negligent-2022-05-13/)** > > A former commander of pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine accused Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Friday of "criminal negligence" over Moscow's stuttering military campaign in Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 12:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/97 "2022-05-15T12:03:31Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Speculation that senior Russian military leaders are being suspended or even arrested, but so far, just speculation, no confirmation: Possibly a bad thing - ISTM, lots of countries who go to war after a long peace end up with crap at the top of the their military. Rapid promotion of folks who prove themselves on the battlefield corrects that. Of course, I’m not sure that Russia is having enough success in Ukraine to identify competent leaders, so it may not work out for them. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/98 "2022-05-15T12:33:21Z")
Especially with the death rate for general officers in theatre. There’s also the point that if failure doesn’t just mean demotion but arrest or imprisonment, that can’t be good for morale. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/99 "2022-05-15T12:39:48Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > According to this interview with a Russian news media person with good military sources, there is general support for the war in the military, and in fact for going way beyond what Putin had announced, like trying to take all of Ukraine, expanding Russia’s borders to Poland, and so on. Maybe among some in the military, like the brass that’s sufficiently high up that they don’t need to be anywhere near the front. The actual guys at the sharp end of the spear know they’re getting their butts kicked, though, and can’t be happy about it. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/100 "2022-05-15T13:48:44Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > So this is _underway_ ? Troops are kicking down Putin’s bedroom door right now? Somehow I feel as though that is not going to be tomorrow’s headline. I posted that article in the Invasion thread yesterday. I noted this [emphasising my final sentence]: > A coup to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin is underway and can’t be stopped, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief. Also: > Putin has spent decades making his regime “coup-proof.”… [T]he existence of the FSB, the FSO, and The Rosgvardia serve to protect him. **In summary: A coup will take out Putin. Unless it doesn’t.** ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/101 "2022-05-15T14:01:31Z")
> [@Folacin](#): > > Possibly a bad thing - ISTM, lots of countries who go to war after a long peace end up with crap at the top of the their military. Rapid promotion of folks who prove themselves on the battlefield corrects that. I think what we’re seeing is a different problem. In some countries, the military becomes politicized. The regime promotes officers for their political loyalty rather than for their military competence. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990.md?page=6)