# Estimate the chance of a regime change in Russia **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 18, 2022, 8:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990 "2022-04-18T08:20:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/102 "2022-05-15T14:33:11Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > I saw this article today and although I’d love it to be true, an actual coup seems like a very specific thing: > [Putin coup is underway and 'impossible to stop,' says Ukraine's military intelligence chief](https://news.yahoo.com/putin-coup-underway-impossible-stop-104151388.html) > So this is _underway_? Troops are kicking down Putin’s bedroom door right now? Somehow I feel as though that is not going to be tomorrow’s headline. Thier source is a Sky News interview of Major General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence. It’s **literally** his job to spread disinformation. He also says Putin has cancer and other illnesses. It all sounds a lot more dubious when [the voiceover at the beginning of the clip](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZbm5DvMw8w) calls him Ukraine’s top military spy. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2022, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/103 "2022-05-15T16:22:26Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The actual guys at the sharp end of the spear know they’re getting their butts kicked, though, and can’t be happy about it. “Sure, we are getting stuck, shot, blown up, captured, insulted, and humiliated by _babusyas_ offering us sunflowers to fertilize with our corpses…but it is still better than going back to Russia to face Putin’s wrath. Plus, this Ukrainian _borscht_ really is better than the _poylo_ my mother makes.” Stranger ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2022, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/104 "2022-05-17T17:35:54Z")
If Putin dies: 100% If Putin doesn’t die: 0% The oligarchs owe their position to Putin, not the other way around. He still has absolute control over everyone that matters and always will. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2022, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/105 "2022-05-17T23:24:28Z")
This is interesting. Russian TV coverage is usually continuous jingoistic propaganda. But yesterday a much more honest and critical assessment of Russian performance and prospects was aired on prime time. > **[Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222)** > > Mikhail Khodarenok gives a rare insight saying the military operation in Ukraine can only get worse. > The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan. > > But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture. > > He warned that “the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse” as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that “the Ukrainian army can arm a million people”. > > Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted: "The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for. > > “The biggest problem with [Russia’s] military and political situation,” he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don’t want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation. > > “The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited.” I can’t believe they just let this through accidentally on the flagship program. Are they preparing the public for something? ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2022, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/106 "2022-05-18T02:17:39Z")
It absolutely wasn’t an accident, my guess as to what they are preparing the public for is a more honest appraisal of the situation Russia is in and what can realistically be expected in terms of an outcome for this war _cough_ - sorry, special military operation. The Russian public aren’t idiots, it’s impossible to conceal that things are not going well and most certainly aren’t going according to plan. Kiev was clearly a disaster, and you might be able to get most people to publicly parrot that it was just a diversion, and all went according to plan, but only the most truly gullible are going to actually believe that in their heart. It may have actually finally fallen, but how many times did Putin or the military brass announce Mariupol had fallen before today? Putin’s announcement that the Azovstal plant wasn’t important and was to be cordoned off so that a fly couldn’t get out, only for the assaults on it to continue unabated really gave me some Hitler at Stalingrad vibes. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2022, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990/107 "2022-05-19T05:33:26Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The oligarchs owe their position to Putin, not the other way around. He still has absolute control over everyone that matters and always will. A LOT of dictators have thought that. And they were right – until they weren’t. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimate-the-chance-of-a-regime-change-in-russia/962990.md?page=5)