# Estimated year for 1st sub-2:00 marathon time? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [September 30, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921 "2014-09-30T00:37:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/1 "2014-09-30T00:37:15Z")
[Dennis Kimetto breaks world record at Berlin Marathon.](http://olympictalk.nbcsports.com/2014/09/28/dennis-kimetto-berlin-marathon-world-record/) 2:02:57. So…when do you think someone will finally break 2 hours in the men’s marathon? Going to [the Wikipedia page on the record progression](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression), they’ve shaved 3 minutes off of the record in 16 years. If the progression is linear, then someone will do it in around 16 more years. Then again, it took 31 years for the previous 3 minutes to be get shaved off (1967-1998), with a ten year gap with no new records (1988-1998). If, however, the proper mathematical model is that of a tailing curve (which is what the women’s graph looks like), then it might take much longer than 15-30 years. On the other hand, it would appear to be a feat well within the physical abilities of current runners, strictly speaking (leaving issues of strategy aside), who might otherwise not feel the impetus towards 2 hours right now-as we get closer to that mark however someone will probably decide to make a run for it, so it could happen much sooner than that. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/2 "2014-09-30T02:48:57Z")
The problem with marathon times is that they are not run on any kind of standard course. The only thing they have in common is the distance. One city might host a marathon with lots of hills and another will host one with a very flat course. The times in the Denver (Altitude over 5000’) marathon can’t really be compared to the one run in San Diego (just about at sea level). Individual cities can have their own marathon record times (as long as they keep the course the same), but comparing times between cities just isn’t fair. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/3 "2014-09-30T03:02:20Z")
[The Science of Sport](http://sportsscientists.com/) [The Sub-2 Hour Marathon? Who and when?](http://sportsscientists.com/2010/08/the-sub-2-hour-marathon-who-and-when/)-2010 [The Sub 2 Hour marathon debate](http://sportsscientists.com/2011/04/the-sub-2-hour-marathon-debate/)-2011 [Is the sub-2 hour marathon imminent? Don’t hold your breath, and here’s why.](http://sportsscientists.com/2013/10/is-the-sub-2-hour-marathon-imminent-dont-hold-your-breath-and-heres-why/)-2013 ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/4 "2014-09-30T08:49:25Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > The problem with marathon times is that they are not run on any kind of standard course. The only thing they have in common is the distance. > > One city might host a marathon with lots of hills and another will host one with a very flat course. The times in the Denver (Altitude over 5000’) marathon can’t really be compared to the one run in San Diego (just about at sea level). > > Individual cities can have their own marathon record times (as long as they keep the course the same), but comparing times between cities just isn’t fair. That’s largely true, and I think everyone recognises that. It could well be a greater achievement to run 2:04 on a hilly course than 2:03 on a flat course. Nevertheless, I don’t see a problem with having a world record, that is still the fastest official time ever over 26.2 miles. As the excellent links provided by **running coach** discuss, the margins are so small now that even a slight headwind on part of the course, or a large number of tight turns, can make a difference. I know that for a record to be official, the course must have no net elevation change (as clearly a downhill course would produce faster times), I’m not sure whether they are also required to have the same starting and finishing point (which would ensure the first condition is met) as this would also mean the net effect of the wind is about the same (I would think a course where the prevailing wind is constantly behind the runners would not qualify for the official record). Given that a course has to have no net elevation change, it would seem a course would be faster the flatter it is, as the energy and speed lost by going uphill is not entirely compensated for by going downhill. Anyway, back to the OP - I think it could happen in my lifetime, it seems easier to achieve than, say, a sub-9-second 100m due to the physiology of it, but I’m only 29 and hope to live a long time - as the linked articles seem to suggest, anything less than 40 years looks hopelessly optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/5 "2014-09-30T19:35:39Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I know that for a record to be official, the course must have no net elevation change (as clearly a downhill course would produce faster times), I’m not sure whether they are also required to have the same starting and finishing point (which would ensure the first condition is met) as this would also mean the net effect of the wind is about the same (I would think a course where the prevailing wind is constantly behind the runners would not qualify for the official record). Actually, the maximum allowed slope is 0.1%; for a marathon, that’s a maximum drop of 42m 19.5cm, or about 138 1/2 feet. Also, the distance between the start and finish points must be less than half the distance, which would be about 13.1 miles, and if a record is set, the course distance must be re-measured after the race to confirm it. Keep in mind that there are two different “records” involved for the marathon; the IAAF “official” world record, and the “unofficial” “world best”, which can be set on any course of the proper distance. If you want to get _really_ technical, a course that is exactly 26 miles 385 yards is, in fact, about 1/2 inch short of the “official” distance of 42km 195m. [Source](http://www.iaaf.org/download/download?filename=a3588664-5eff-49c2-977a-4665a12c19bf.pdf&urlslug=IAAF%20Competition%20Rules%202014-2015) ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/6 "2014-10-01T02:45:09Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Also, the distance between the start and finish points must be less than half the distance, which would be about 13.1 miles, and if a record is set, the course distance must be re-measured after the race to confirm it. This must be a new rule, or the 2004 Olympics got an exception as that marathon was run over the original course with beginning and finish much more than 13.1 miles apart. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/7 "2014-10-01T02:48:17Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > This must be a new rule, or the 2004 Olympics got an exception as that marathon was run over the original course with beginning and finish much more than 13.1 miles apart. You can run a marathon over any course you want. To be eligible for world record consideration, it has to meet certain criteria. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2014, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/8 "2014-10-02T13:59:48Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Actually, the maximum allowed slope is 0.1%; for a marathon, that’s a maximum drop of 42m 19.5cm, or about 138 1/2 feet. > > Also, the distance between the start and finish points must be less than half the distance, which would be about 13.1 miles, and if a record is set, the course distance must be re-measured after the race to confirm it. > > Keep in mind that there are two different “records” involved for the marathon; the IAAF “official” world record, and the “unofficial” “world best”, which can be set on any course of the proper distance. If you want to get _really_ technical, a course that is exactly 26 miles 385 yards is, in fact, about 1/2 inch short of the “official” distance of 42km 195m. > > [Source](http://www.iaaf.org/download/download?filename=a3588664-5eff-49c2-977a-4665a12c19bf.pdf&urlslug=IAAF%20Competition%20Rules%202014-2015) Great post, thank you. I wonder if a record would really be disqualified if the re-measured the course afterwards and it turned out to be half an inch short?! I know that wasn’t really the point you were making, just wondering about it. I doubt it, as the possible measurement error is surely likely to be more than half an inch over that distance, and although I talked about small margins, they’re not that small yet - probably not even for the 100m. Of course, if you set a record for the “mile” over 1,600m, that’s different (because a mile is just over 1,609m). ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/9 "2014-10-02T18:24:57Z")
When measuring a certified road race course, a short course prevention factor of 0.1% is included to make sure that the remeasured course will not come up short. [From the handbook on road race measurements:](http://aimsworldrunning.org/measurement/MeasurementOfRoadRaceCourses.pdf) > [@](#): > > Note (ii): To prevent a course from being found to be short on future re-measurement, it is recommended that a “short course prevention factor“ be built in when laying out the course. For bicycle measurements this factor should be 0.1% which means that each km on the course will have > a “measured length“ of 1001m. So for a marathon of 42195m, the measurement would be 42237.2m. Upon re-measurement, it is unlikely to be below 42195m. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 9:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/10 "2014-10-03T09:39:29Z")
Also interesting, thanks. I’m surprised the factor is as great as that, because that is starting to make a significant difference. It would take a marathon runner about 10 seconds to run the extra 42m. Personally, if I were an elite marathon runner I would be pretty annoyed if I ran the course and finished 5 seconds outside the world record, only to discover the course was 42m longer than the official distance. Unless, of course, all top-class marathons follow the same procedure. I rather suspect that they try to get closer to the official distance than that, presumably by re-measuring until they have a high confidence of success. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/11 "2014-10-03T13:36:57Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Unless, of course, all top-class marathons follow the same procedure. I rather suspect that they try to get closer to the official distance than that, presumably by re-measuring until they have a high confidence of success. They do. There’s a very specific measuring protocol that _must_ be done to certify a course as record eligible. There isn’t a top level marathon that hasn’t been measured to within an inch (2.54cm) of it’s life. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2014, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/12 "2014-10-21T17:12:09Z")
Little bump: Runner’s World predicts it will be 2075 in Saskatoon (tongue in cheek). It’s a decent analysis of the factors that could theoretically lead to a sub-2 hour marathon, if you can overlook the distracting graphics. [http://rw.runnersworld.com/sub-2/](http://rw.runnersworld.com/sub-2/) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/13 "2014-10-22T15:01:55Z")
The crowd of people running a typical marathon is a lot longer than that. Do they time everyone independently as the cross the starting line, or do they just make sure that the serious contenders start out in front? ---
**Author:** ![Clawdio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d07c76/32.png) [@Clawdio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clawdio)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/14 "2014-10-22T15:14:48Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The crowd of people running a typical marathon is a lot longer than that. Do they time everyone independently as the cross the starting line, or do they just make sure that the serious contenders start out in front? Both. The “serious contenders” usually start about 5-10 mins before the rest of us schlubs. This is usually called the elite wave, and their official time (used for prizes & such) is usually the “gun time” - the time from the starting gun until the time they cross the finish line. At most larger marathons, the rest of us wear chips that are typically attached either on our shoelaces or on the back of the bib, so we get a chip time - the time from when we cross the start line until the time we cross the finish line. I had one marathon where i started way in the back and my chip time was 8 mins faster than my gun time. ---
**Author:** ![epbrown01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7ba0ec/32.png) [@epbrown01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/epbrown01)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/15 "2014-10-22T15:54:40Z")
> [@Clawdio](#): > > Both. > > The “serious contenders” usually start about 5-10 mins before the rest of us schlubs. This is usually called the elite wave, and their official time (used for prizes & such) is usually the “gun time” - the time from the starting gun until the time they cross the finish line. > > At most larger marathons, the rest of us wear chips that are typically attached either on our shoelaces or on the back of the bib, so we get a chip time - the time from when we cross the start line until the time we cross the finish line. I had one marathon where i started way in the back and my chip time was 8 mins faster than my gun time. Yep, my first Chicago marathon it took 10 minutes to reach the starting line. And from our office near the midpoint we could see the different groups. The wheelchair racers started first, then the elite runners would start with everyone else at the front of the pack. For the average person, those people are finishing an hour to an hour and a half ahead, so you’re hearing who won when you’ve got 10 miles to go. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/16 "2014-10-22T16:37:51Z")
> [@epbrown01](#): > > Yep, my first Chicago marathon it took 10 minutes to reach the starting line. And from our office near the midpoint we could see the different groups. The wheelchair racers started first, then the elite runners would start with everyone else at the front of the pack. For the average person, those people are finishing an hour to an hour and a half ahead, so you’re hearing who won when you’ve got 10 miles to go. 🙂 If the average person in your marathons is running 3:10 to 3:45, you’re in some damn fast marathons. The average time these days is more like 4:30, while winners are crossing around 2:15 (faster for the big ones, slower for ones that don’t attract elite runners). An average runner might not even be halfway done by that time. In other words, don’t listen to who won until you finish yourself. ---
**Author:** ![brad\_d](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@brad\_d](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brad_d)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/17 "2014-10-22T18:30:07Z")
10 days ago I ran a half marathon where my gun time was 25 minutes longer than my chip time. I wasn’t even at the back of the field - there were over 11,000 finishers, and no matter how you do it it takes quite a bit of time to get everybody across the start line. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/18 "2014-10-22T19:02:06Z")
So what happens when some unknown puts in a really good time in his first official marathon? What if his “chip time” would make him the winner, but his “gun time” wouldn’t? I wouldn’t expect this to be all that common, but I’d be surprised if it’s never happened. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/19 "2014-10-22T19:43:53Z")
If there is prize money at stake, it is almost always (or maybe even always) awarded based on gun time. Any records will also be based on gun time. Within age groups, your place is your chip time. So yes, you can finish after other runners but still have a better time and place ahead of them. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2014, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921/20 "2014-10-22T19:55:09Z")
Missed the edit window. Searching turned up a little more info: it looks like most races use gun time for overall awards (e.g., top 3) and chip time for age categories, but it depends on each race. See [here](http://www.runnersworld.com/races/chip-time-v-gun-time). According to official rule 245 (3) of USA Track and Field, gun time must be used as the official time for a runner. But races don’t have to follow USATF rules unless it’s a sanctioned event. When it comes to qualifying times to get into a race (like the Boston Marathon), they generally accept chip time. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/estimated-year-for-1st-sub-2-00-marathon-time/699921.md?page=2)