Estimating the value of a mass of US coins

I took a look at your spreadsheet, and I don’t fully follow the terminology you used, but our results differ for the “no pennies” and “no quarters” mixes. They seem to diverge in the calculation of how much of the total mass the individual coins make up.

For example, in my “no pennies” mix, 16.9% of the weight is from nickels, 11.5% of the weight is from dimes, and 71.7% of the weight is from quarters. It appears that you came up with 21.34%, 14.52%, and 90.77%, respectively, which adds up to more than 100%, so I think you made a mistake there. I might be overlooking something obvious, though.

Our $/lb numbers agree for the regular mix of all coins ($12.77), but I got $17.39/lb for “no pennies” and $5.43/lb for “no quarters”.

I uploaded my spreadsheet too so you can take a look. Mine’s not as pretty. :slight_smile:

I’ve adjusted the spreadsheet – I was still dividing by the total mass of all four coins, even when only three coins were in the mix (cut/paste left in an absolute reference rather than a dynamic reference). Our values agree now. I’m also going to add a second set of values to my spreadsheet to account for Bergebo’s change sample.

From Jurph’s spreadsheet.

That’s amazing work you two did. So a pound of change is worth ~ $13. Should help people out if they can drag their cache onto the bathroom scale.

Based on that estimate that puts my piggy bank at 956.45. My estimate is over 1000, so we aren’t too far apart. I have severay years to go before the bottle is full, so I won’t know for a long time.

Whenever I go to either spreadsheet, there’s a sign in? :confused:

I have now added volume and density calculations to put an upper bound on what you can expect a given volume of change to be worth. Assuming perfect packing, a quart of change with no quarters (“laundry mix”) should be worth $66.80 (SDMB estimated distribution) or $78.70 (Bergebo’s sampled distribution).

If we had more data points with known volumes, we’d probably be able to determine a useful (but imperfect) packing factor by which we could multiply a given volume to approximate the mass of normally-distributed coins therein. It would also be interesting to measure the volume of water that could be poured into a container “full” of coins. Assuming the water displaces all the air between the coins, you could get really good data on packing factor from that, too.

Of course then you’d want to disperse and dry the coins ASAP to avoid corrosion and ending up with a jar-shaped ingot of US currency…

When I come down to visit you folks, I’ll surreptitiously throw a Canadian two-dollar coin into your change jar. It’ll completely destroy your math.

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha!

Seriously, I wonder what the equivalent calculations are for other countries? Canada? Europe? Japan?

In Canada, we have two-dollar and one-dollar coins in common usage, but they tend to be used often and quickly disappear from one’s change pouch. Quarters disappear almost as quickly, and the remaining change accumulates pennies disproportionately. Real-world Canadian change jars are mostly pennies, I suspect.

This thread, right here, is why I love the SDMB!

Me too.

One more possible complexity though. Haven’t the weights of coins changed over the years. (particularly the quarter) So you’d have to find the distribution of “old” quarters vs “new” quarters, (and nickels too I think) ?

Or is it only volume that matters in your calculations???

Just a thought, and now I go and leave it up to all you intelligent industrious folks:)

Weight is critical to the calculations, but I’m pretty sure that the old quarters and new quarters are identical in weight. That was one of the requirements for making replacement quarters, as far as I know.

I had worried about coins’ ages affecting their mass, too, which was why I was tempted to go with volume first.

The two most relevant dates for that line of questioning are 1965 and 1982 – by 1965, none of the coins we’re considering* contained any silver; in 1982 the penny was changed from 3.1g to 2.5g. I suspect that the very small percentage of marginally-heavier “silver” coins is going to disappear in the noise of normal coin distribution; note that the theoretical distribution galt worked out and the observed distribution from Bergebo vary by more than 2% in mass.

If we assume that all coins minted in the last fifty years are equally distributed in the pockets of America, then pre-1965 “silver” coins would comprise ~20% of the samples, and the average mass of (for example) a dime would shift up from 2.27 grams to 2.32 grams – about a 2% weight gain. The penny is a more severe case; an even distribution over the last fifty years would yield an almost 50/50 distribution of heavier (3.1g) pennies, making the average penny weigh 2.8g, a 12% error. Quarters went from 6.25 grams down to 5.67 grams in 1965, so even distribution would yield about a 2% gain in mass. The mass of the nickel remained unchanged.

The effects of such a sample would be interesting; the sheer volume of pre-1982 pennies along with minor contributions from dimes and quarters would mean that a large sample would be almost 6% heavier than the same distribution of all-modern coins. Once you add in their relative values**, it turns out that my hypothetical 50-year “perfect” sample of coins (galt’s distribution) is worth about 5% less by mass: about $26.73 per kilogram. An evenly-distributed twenty-year sample would be much closer to expectations; “silver” coins would have constant mass and pennies would add less than 1% phantom mass (that is, a change of mass with no corresponding change in value). As a curiosity, a sample of coins that were all from before 1965 would be worth $24.64 per kilogram – a 12.5% drop in value (by mass)!

I really doubt we’ll see an even distribution out there; in fact, I suspect that coins have a “half life” and that as time goes on, fewer and fewer coins from each year are available. Mint production volume also fluctuates: in the last 3 years the number of pennies produced annually varied from 6.1 billion (2006) to 7.7 billion (2005) with 2004 coming in between with 6.8 billion. Other coin production varied similarly. I’m sure somebody out there knows how the coin years are distributed within the set of circulating coins, but if they do, they know it from sampling. If you’re aiming for accuracy, and you know that the coin sample contains pre-1982 coins, then you should probably shave your value estimate down by maybe one percent, at most.

So now we know that the presence of older coins hurts our ability to estimate value by mass alone. Unless we can predict the packing factor for flat cylinders in mostly-cylindrical containers, we can’t estimate by volume alone except to determine an upper bound. But both estimates together, taken with an assumption of the distribution of change in circulation, can give solid upper and lower bounds for the value of a known mass/volume of coins.

    • the circulated half dollar retained its silver content until 1970, but is almost never seen in circulation.

** - and ignore the possibility that you’ve got an ultra-rare coin worth $300 in your coin jar. :smiley:

The metal in pre-1965 silver coins is worth considerably more than their face value, isn’t it? It’s probably a reasonable assumption to make that they’ve been nearly entirely removed from the circulating currency. In fact, since they do have a different weight, the chance of them being removed goes up rapdily, since it’s easy to mechanically remove them from mixed change.

Based on a brief sampling of websites with relatively absurd investment advice* provided by Google, it seems my assumption above is true. There are likely few to no pre-1965 90% silver coins in circulation.

*This is not meant as a comment on the validity of buying precious metals as an investment, only as a comment on the logical fallacies displayed at sites like this.

Standard coin bags from U S Treasury hold $1000 for dimes and quarters and $200 for nickels a bag of dimes weigh 49.15 pounds quarters 50.13 pounds and nickels 43 lbs.

Are the coins in those large bags loose, or counted and wrapped? If they’re loose, then we could get a feel for the approximate volume of same-denomination coins. It wouldn’t be perfect but we might be able to finagle some sort of packing factor from that. So, gemdave, tell us - how much volume does a bag full of nickels take up? A bag of pennies? Quarters? And is there a standard volume for a dime bag?

                                                                                                                                             The coins in the bag are loose and are measured by weight, the bag is approximately 12 inches wide by about 18 inches high. Sorry I cannot give you the inside volume of a full bag...when bag is closed about 3 inches at the top of the bag can be twisted to allow for sealing with heavy string

One possibly simplifying fact: If I recall correctly, pennies have the same “value density” as nickels, and dimes have the same as quarters. So we could deal with only two types of coin, “base” coins and “silver” coins.

One possibly complicating fact: Optimum packing density is, in principle, higher for objects of a mix of sizes than for objects of uniform size (the smaller ones can fit into gaps between the bigger ones). So it’s conceivable that a container of mixed coins could have a higher value than the bounds calculated. I doubt this would be significant, though, since the packing probably isn’t too close to optimal anyway.

I’m not sure how you’re arriving at value density, but I can’t see that being accurate. If you’re dividing value by coin volume (and ignoring packing factors) the penny is about $21,000/m[sup]3[/sup]. The nickel is a hefty $72,500/m[sup]3[/sup]; the dime a stunning $294,000/m[sup]3[/sup], and the quarter is worth $309,000/m[sup]3[/sup]. All of those values assume that the entire cubic meter is full of coins – no air! You’ll have to melt down $310,000 worth of quarters to find out if I’m right on this one…

I think you’re right about that. I would guess that in a thoroughly-shaken coin jar, there may be as little as 20% air by volume, but it’s probably closer to 30% or even 40%. I just back-of-the-enveloped the best packing of circles on an infinite plane and got ~91%, and I figure coins in a finite jar will do much worse thanks to edge cases.

I can’t believe I didn’t think of this earlier, but Coinstar.com has a utility that will estimate how much change is in your change container. :smack: They note that the “actual value may vary based on container and coin mix,” and estimate that one gallon of change is worth $228.32. Of course their estimates are done by volume, but they do take packing factors into account.

Our coins have just changed and the 5cent one is going to become obsolete. Imagine if you had $1000 of five cent coins and you don’t take them to the bank in time!

That would be really cool!