# European Hurricane Model?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/european-hurricane-model/594026>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [August 25, 2011, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/european-hurricane-model/594026 "2011-08-25T13:12:08Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Jinx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Jinx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jinx)\
**Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/european-hurricane-model/594026/1 "2011-08-25T13:12:08Z")

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The weather channel mentioned in passing that the European hurricane forecasting model has proven more accurate than all the other modeling programs used. Did anyone else hear this statement, too? I was hoping a SDoper weather nut could validate what I heard last night.

Aside: Yet, it is predciting Irene to take the most westerly path - contradicting all the other models. Strange!

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**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\
**Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/european-hurricane-model/594026/2 "2011-08-25T17:26:33Z")

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I did not hear that report but I found this:

> [@](#):
>
> ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that starting producing very accurate hurricanes forecasts.
> 
> SOURCE: [Hurricane & Tropical Cyclones | Weather Underground](http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp)

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**Author:** ![Viscera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/258eb7/32.png) [@Viscera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Viscera)\
**Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/european-hurricane-model/594026/3 "2011-08-25T18:33:36Z")

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Yes, that would be the model they are referring to, the ECMWF. Unfortunately, unlike most US forecast models, most of the ECMWF data items are not freely available to the general public (that I’ve seen, I could be wrong). You can get the basics, but not as many freely available details as the various US operational models (such as the GFS and NAM).

There are plenty of other models used for hurricane prediction, all with their own pluses/minuses/biases, not to mention various ensemble (collections of models) forecasts.