# Evan McMullin to launch independent Presidential bid... **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 8, 2016, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134 "2016-08-08T13:41:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Aro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Aro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aro)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/1 "2016-08-08T13:41:33Z")
[Anti-Trump Republican Evan McMullin to launch independent bid for presidency](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/evan-mcmullin-2016-presidential-run-226784) > [@](#): > > Evan McMullin, the chief policy director for Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives, will offer discontented members of his party an option this November by launching an independent, conservative bid for president. > > “In a year where Americans have lost faith in the candidates of both major parties, it’s time for a generation of new leadership to step up," McMullin said in a statement to ABC News. "It’s never too late to do the right thing, and America deserves much better than either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can offer us. I humbly offer myself as a leader who can give millions of disaffected Americans a conservative choice for President.” So, is this a real thing that could affect the result in November, or a waste of time as the registration to get on the ballot in many states has already passed? Certainly he can’t win, but even getting on the ballot in a handful of states could affect who gets the EVs. So, is that the whole plan, or is there another angle here that I’m missing? Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/2 "2016-08-08T13:46:52Z")
I think I can answer all your questions in one word: who? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/3 "2016-08-08T14:15:37Z")
It’s an attempt to shame republican leadership who support Trump and an alternative to those republicans who will otherwise be casting their vote for Clinton. Does it have enough support to last through to the November election? Who knows. ---
**Author:** ![Aro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Aro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aro)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/4 "2016-08-08T14:21:20Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > I think I can answer all your questions in one word: who? Indeed. But does it actually matter _who_ he is (at least at this stage), if he does happen to have serious financial backing and the ground game organisation to get his name on a few key ballots? Especially if he is seen to have solid, traditional conservative credentials? Quite a lot of ifs in there, admittedly. So, are there generally a lot of lesser-known names picking up a small amount of votes on the presidential ballot in each state then? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/5 "2016-08-08T14:43:02Z")
How could he possibly have good ground game organization? A guy who’s never run for anything and probably never organized more than his wife’s birthday party is going set up a multi-state petition drive/ballot access campaign? ---
**Author:** ![Aro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Aro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aro)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/6 "2016-08-08T14:52:40Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How could he possibly have good ground game organization? A guy who’s never run for anything and probably never organized more than his wife’s birthday party is going set up a multi-state petition drive/ballot access campaign? I’m not trying to be the seller of this particular story, but trying to play Devil’s Advocate a little to see what the possible drivers for this could be: I’m presuming (without evidence I admit) that as several other bigger names had considered an independent run and then stepped away, that this guy being willing to stand up now knows for sure there is some level of support from the _#nevertrump_ crowd and perhaps access to Koch money too, and within that tent there must be plenty of well connected and organised teams of political operatives who, with the right funding can get things moving. If, if, if. I’m presuming much too much (likely), but without being sure of the money and expertise being there to back a run like this, the only other options I can see that could drive such an announcement as this are vanity and insanity. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/7 "2016-08-08T15:34:16Z")
It’s a McGuffin for the #nevertrump movement. This guy isn’t supposed to win. He doesn’t need a ground game or anything resembling a traditional campaign. This is simply a move by GOP establishment to give cover to those republicans who cannot in clear conscience vote for Trump, but also do not want to have to answer in the next election about why they voted for Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/8 "2016-08-08T15:40:14Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How could he possibly have good ground game organization? A guy who’s never run for anything and probably never organized more than his wife’s birthday party is going set up a multi-state petition drive/ballot access campaign? He’s not just some random guy, [he does have some backing](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cia-agent-evan-mcmullin-launch-independent-presidential-bid/story?id=41201256): > [@](#): > > Evan McMullin, a former CIA counterterrorism officer, will run for president as a third-party conservative alternative to Donald Trump, GOP operatives working to back the candidate told ABC News today. > > The group, Better for America, a 501(c)(4) organization that cannot officially endorse or back McMillan’s bid, has been working for months on trying to select a candidate and get on ballots throughout the country. In some states, like Texas, they will likely have to sue to get on the ballot. A 501(c)(4) is an issue-based nonprofit that can raise unlimited funds and does not have to disclose its donors. > > \ > > McMullin’s candidacy, backed by some Republicans, shows how the “Never Trump” movement is still working to upend Trump even with less than three months left until the general election. McMullin may be a long shot, but will have a legitimate organization behind him. Also, it is significant that he’s a Mormon who went to Brigham Young. Mormons especially don’t like Trump. Bill Clinton was campaigning for Hillary in Utah recently, apparently the first time that a Democrat has been campaigning for president in Utah for years. [This article was posted before McMillan’s bid became news, but it applies](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/08/why_mormons_don_t_like_donald_trump.html): > [@](#): > > On the popular Mormon blog By Common Consent, Russell Fox, a political science professor at Friends University (and an avid Bernie Sanders supporter), posted an open letter to the “Mormon Voters of the American West.” In it, Fox invoked the Mormon “White Horse Prophecy,” an almost certainly apocryphal statement attributed to Joseph Smith Jr. The prophecy foresees that one day, the United States will find itself on the brink of collapse, with the Constitution “hang[ing] like a thread,” only to be saved “by the efforts of the White Horse.” Fox explained that for years Mormons have been misinterpreting the prophecy. The White Horse is “not a reference to a [would-be] LDS President of the United States”—not a Romney, not a John Huntsman, or an Orrin Hatch. Instead, Fox suggested, the White Horse is “the Mormon people.” > > Fox wrote that the ascension of Trump, who as president “would apparently be comfortable with trashing the 1st, 4th, 5th, and 14th amendments,” just might depend on winning the Western states, notably Utah and Arizona. If somehow Trump captures the Rust Belt and Upper South, it would fall to the “Mormons and the newly enfranchised Hispanic population, which American Mormons are already more willing to work with than the rest of the Republican mainstream” to ride in on the White Horse and stop Trump. I’m guessing that if McMillan picks up many votes, it won’t be people who genuinely think that he can win, but just that they would feel more comfortable voting for him than Clinton or Johnson. And it’s a way to get Mormons out to vote for down ticket races. This could be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/9 "2016-08-08T15:41:03Z")
But McMullin is no one at all; there is doubt as to whether he can even get on the ballot. Where is the evidence he is backed by the GOP establishment? If legitimate Republicans and donors rally around him and help get him on the ballots it’ll mean something, but if not this story will be buried like a dead hamster in 72 hours and he won’t draw a single vote away from anyone. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/10 "2016-08-08T15:42:03Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > It’s a McGuffin for the #nevertrump movement. > > This guy isn’t supposed to win. He doesn’t need a ground game or anything resembling a traditional campaign. > > This is simply a move by GOP establishment to give cover to those republicans who cannot in clear conscience vote for Trump, **but also do not want to have to answer in the next election about why they voted for Hillary.** They’re politicians. They can’t lie about it? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/11 "2016-08-08T15:42:46Z")
He’s just a place for Republicans who hate Trump and won’t vote libertarian to go. This probably hurts Gary Johnson more than it does Donald Trump. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/12 "2016-08-08T15:54:54Z")
[Filing deadlines and signature requirements](https://ballotpedia.org/Filing_deadlines_and_signature_requirements_for_independent_presidential_candidates,_2016) Within the month: ```auto Alabama 5,000 8/18/2016 Alaska 3,005 8/10/2016 California 178,039 8/12/2016 Colorado 5,000 8/10/2016 Conn. 7,500 8/10/2016 Hawaii 4,347 8/10/2016 Idaho 1,000 8/24/2016 Iowa 1,500 8/19/2016 Louisiana 5,000 8/19/2016 Minnesota 2,000 8/23/2016 Montana 5,000 8/17/2016 New Hampshire 3,000 8/10/2016 New York 15,000 8/23/2016 Ohio 5,000 8/10/2016 Oregon 17,893 8/30/2016 Tennessee 275 8/18/2016 Utah 1,000 8/15/2016 Virginia 5,000 8/26/2016 D.C. 4,600 8/10/2016 Wyoming 3,302 8/30/2016 Note: Two states (Colorado and Louisiana) allow independent candidates to pay filing fees in lieu of submitting petitions. ``` (apologies for the formatting) (26 deadlines have passed, 5 are next month) That is a hell of a lot of signatures and form filing within 3 weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/13 "2016-08-08T15:59:36Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > Also, it is significant that he’s a Mormon who went to Brigham Young. As I noted on the predictions thread, this could be the straw that tips Utah in to the blue column (it’s already much closer than usual, with the Mormon vote being repelled from il Doofus by his libertine personal lifestyle and influenced by Mitt Romney’s disdain for him). ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/14 "2016-08-08T16:07:30Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > [Filing deadlines and signature requirements](https://ballotpedia.org/Filing_deadlines_and_signature_requirements_for_independent_presidential_candidates,_2016) > Within the month: > > ```auto > > Alabama 5,000 8/18/2016 > Alaska 3,005 8/10/2016 > California 178,039 8/12/2016 > Colorado 5,000 8/10/2016 > Conn. 7,500 8/10/2016 > Hawaii 4,347 8/10/2016 > Idaho 1,000 8/24/2016 > Iowa 1,500 8/19/2016 > Louisiana 5,000 8/19/2016 > Minnesota 2,000 8/23/2016 > Montana 5,000 8/17/2016 > New Hampshire 3,000 8/10/2016 > New York 15,000 8/23/2016 > Ohio 5,000 8/10/2016 > Oregon 17,893 8/30/2016 > Tennessee 275 8/18/2016 > Utah 1,000 8/15/2016 > Virginia 5,000 8/26/2016 > D.C. 4,600 8/10/2016 > Wyoming 3,302 8/30/2016 > > Note: Two states (Colorado and Louisiana) allow independent candidates > to pay filing fees in lieu of submitting petitions. > > ``` > > (apologies for the formatting) > (26 deadlines have passed, 5 are next month) > That is a hell of a lot of signatures and form filing within 3 weeks. If he is mainly aimed at the Mormons, then he’ll have little trouble getting 1,000 signatures in a week and getting on Utah’s ballots, and even less trouble getting 1,000 signatures in two and half weeks to get on Idaho’s ballots. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/15 "2016-08-08T16:18:00Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > (26 deadlines have passed, 5 are next month) > That is a hell of a lot of signatures and form filing within 3 weeks. Some of those aren’t all that relevant; it’s pretty clear that this campaign is going to be focused on the Mountain West for the dual purposes of 1)attracting the NeverTrump Mormon vote and 2)diverting said NeverTrump Mormon vote away from Johnson to prevent the Libertarians from getting to the threshold of guaranteed ballot access for next time around (which would increase their ability to siphon off some votes from the GOP). ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/16 "2016-08-08T16:23:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He’s just a place for Republicans who hate Trump and won’t vote libertarian to go. This probably hurts Gary Johnson more than it does Donald Trump. Yeah, Republicans who hate Trump already have Johnson or not voting as an option. He may siphon a few points from Johnson and give Red blooded Republicans who hate Trump but don’t like Johnson or Clinton either, a way to feel as though they have done their patriotic duty, but anyone who is a Trump hating Republican but who has decided to none the less give a vote to Trump or Hillary, isn’t going to throw their vote away on a third party nobody. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/17 "2016-08-08T16:26:16Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > If he is mainly aimed at the Mormons, then he’ll have little trouble getting 1,000 signatures in a week and getting on Utah’s ballots, and even less trouble getting 1,000 signatures in two and half weeks to get on Idaho’s ballots. Sure, a few of them are doable. But he also has to get people to realize and remember on election day that he’s the “real Republican” in the list of independents. So it depends what his real purpose is. If it’s just to make sure Republicans turn out in a couple of states that hate Trump, well maybe a hopeless independent run can do that but I doubt it. If he just wants to start some name recognition for some future political run in Utah, ok that may be reasonable. ---
**Author:** ![dreamregent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/6f9a4e/32.png) [@dreamregent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dreamregent)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/18 "2016-08-08T16:43:08Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > As I noted on the predictions thread, this could be the straw that tips Utah in to the blue column (it’s already much closer than usual, with the Mormon vote being repelled from il Doofus by his libertine personal lifestyle and influenced by Mitt Romney’s disdain for him). I agree and that may be a primary motivation among his backers. Utah only has 6 electoral votes but, without that particular state, Trump’s electoral path is all but foreclosed. Hillary could lose Nevada, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina (give Georgia and Arizona to Trump as well)…and Trump would still only have 259 electoral votes. Although, according to the list above, I suppose the only states McMullin could realistically draw enough support in to affect the race are Iowa and Utah, unless he can get on the ballot in Ohio in 2 days. Frankly, it’s very difficult for me to imagine Trump could win any other state won by Obama in 2012. I think Hillary would have to completely collapse for that to happen. ---
**Author:** ![dreamregent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/6f9a4e/32.png) [@dreamregent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dreamregent)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/19 "2016-08-08T16:50:04Z")
Note that I had Iowa in Trump’s camp as well in that count of 259 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134/20 "2016-08-08T17:10:17Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > 2)diverting said NeverTrump Mormon vote away from Johnson to prevent the Libertarians from getting to the threshold of guaranteed ballot access for next time around (which would increase their ability to siphon off some votes from the GOP). How could that be a remotely useful exercise? I can’t find anything on this threshold you speak of but I know the Utah Libertarian party is officially recognized already and I doubt they have any trouble getting on the ballot even if it isn’t automatic. [Utah Libertarians become first ‘qualified party’ under new election law](http://www.sltrib.com/news/2505133-155/utah-libertarians-become-first-qualified-party) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/evan-mcmullin-to-launch-independent-presidential-bid/762134.md?page=2)