# Every approx 20 years, a "Black Swan" shocking event completely changes America **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 12, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315 "2020-03-12T03:59:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/1 "2020-03-12T03:59:20Z")
I’m a big believer in cyclical history. As per the OP A little vague before Pearl Harbor but let me suggest: -1861- American Civil War -1880??? (I’ll take suggestions but it does seem Reconstruction fell apart by then) -1898 Spanish blow up the Maine leading us into the Spanish-American War that established the United States into a World Pwer -1917 US sends troops to Europe in our first international overseas operation followed by the Spanish Flu Now: **1941- Pearl Harbor** For the first time since in American history, a foreign power totally sundays America and bombs its entire Pacific fleet and kills 2001 troops. Effect-I think this one is probably obvious. Ranks #2 on my books behind 9/11 because 9/11 was an attack on New York City on American civilians. **1963- JFK Assassination** The youngest and arguably the most charismatic President in history gets his brains blown out by a mysterious assassin. First time a President gets killed in modern times. Effect- still goes on today with 1001 conspiracies. The JFK assassination began the complete distrust in our government which was part of the fuel of the fire of the late 1960s and beyond and I would argue lead to the protests and civil discord that lead to the end of the Vietnam War. **1986-Space Shuttle Challenger** To me this was a traumatic movement as a 12th grader in High School. It was during the heady times of the Reagan era, and was the first “Black Swan” event of my lifetime. Effect: 100% personal, it shattered my vision of American invincibility of the Reagan era. Perhaps even worse in the long term, it pushed back our advances in space exploration for decades. **2001- 9/11** For the first time in America, a massive military/terror attack not only kills 3000 American civilians, but destroys an iconic skyscraper and landmark in our largest city. Effect— America no longer feels safe, and xenophobic attitudes towards “brown skinned people” come to the surface. America enters into two costly and eventually fruitless wars that expose our country as a paper tiger and bad actor on the world stage (BTW, I was in favor of bombing Afghanistan at the time). **2020- Coronavirus** For the first time in modern America, sports leagues are cancelled, schools shut down, Americans are in mass quarantines, travel to other countries is shut down. Effect— SPECULATION: social distancing, already exacerbated by our obsession with smart phones, will make American society more isolated than ever. Fractures in our society already exacerbated by the 20 year old Democrat v Republican rivalry manifested in pandemic handling blame/agendas distances Americans from each other even more. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/2 "2020-03-12T04:01:27Z")
I think you are exaggerating the impact of the Challenger disaster a bit much. Sure, it was a tragedy, but in the overall scheme of things it was minor. Things like the Gulf War or fall of the Soviet Bloc were far more consequential. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/3 "2020-03-12T04:05:28Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think you are exaggerating the impact of the Challenger disaster a bit much. Sure, it was a tragedy, but in the overall scheme of things it was minor. Things like the Gulf War or fall of the Soviet Bloc were far more consequential. or the Tehran Embassy takeover in 1979, leading to Reagan and Islamophobia. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/4 "2020-03-12T04:12:25Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > I’m a big believer in cyclical history. > **2020- Coronavirus** > For the first time in modern America, sports leagues are cancelled, schools shut down, Americans are in mass quarantines, travel to other countries is shut down. Effect: So many people are afraid of leaving their homes, they realize how easy it is to order from Amazon/Walmart/[Kroger-local-name] AND and companies are so afraid of liability they let people who can work form home, work from home, We end up the fat floating chair people in Wall-E by 2025. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/5 "2020-03-12T04:13:59Z")
You seem to be saying that a big thing happens every 15-25 years. I agree? Watershed moments happen all the time, especially when you have hindsight to provide context and consequence. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/6 "2020-03-12T04:24:42Z")
I agree Black Swan is a really cool term but I don’t think there is much that can be made from this list. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/7 "2020-03-12T04:35:55Z")
> [@pool](#): > > I agree Black Swan is a really cool term but I don’t think there is much that can be made from this list. For anyone who’s never heard the term before (like moi, perchance?): > **[Black swan theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)** > > The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist, until they were discovered in Australia in 1697, and it then became reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event. > The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2... > [@](#): > > What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. > > First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme ‘impact’. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/8 "2020-03-12T04:41:24Z")
> [@digs](#): > > For anyone who’s never heard the term before (like moi, perchance?): > > [Black swan theory - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory) I’ve heard the term before, admittedly only in the last couple years, it just seems like it gets bandied about quite often, even when not really appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/9 "2020-03-12T04:51:19Z")
Black swan theory is a bad descriptor. Black swans are common but only in certain locales. That doesn’t make them extra-ordinary. To some people they are ordinary. “XXY” theory would have been better. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/10 "2020-03-12T04:53:48Z")
Cherry picking events can lead to anything. The Great Depression, to take one example, had a far greater impact than many of the other listed events. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/11 "2020-03-12T05:48:14Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Cherry picking events can lead to anything. The Great Depression, to take one example, had a far greater impact than many of the other listed events. Yeah, the OP’s list is really just a random collection of stuff that happens. It’s called life. For example, the JFK assassination wasn’t a watershed event. It was a shock to the nation, but it didn’t change history at all. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/12 "2020-03-12T05:56:48Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Cherry picking events can lead to anything. The Great Depression, to take one example, had a far greater impact than many of the other listed events. I thought it was the new Black Swan V-8 engine Cadillac is putting into it’s new-gen V cars. Turns out its called “Blackwing”. So close. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 6:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/13 "2020-03-12T06:56:33Z")
Spain did not blow up the Maine. The American yellow press took what appears to have been an accident due to bad maintenance and used it to fan the flames towards a war the US had really, really been wanting. ---
**Author:** ![Bear\_Nenno](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bear_nenno/32/3358_2.png) [@Bear\_Nenno](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bear_Nenno)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/14 "2020-03-12T08:35:12Z")
> [@](#): > > -1917 US sends troops to Europe in our first international overseas operation followed by the Spanish Flu Wouldn’t Tripoli be our first international overseas operation? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/15 "2020-03-12T11:40:35Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Yeah, the OP’s list is really just a random collection of stuff that happens. It’s called life. > For example, the JFK assassination wasn’t a watershed event. It was a shock to the nation, but it didn’t change history at all. Nothing compared to Watergate & Vietnam’s affect. > [@Bear\_Nenno](#): > > Wouldn’t Tripoli be our first international overseas operation? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/16 "2020-03-12T14:54:27Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Cherry picking events can lead to anything. The Great Depression, to take one example, had a far greater impact than many of the other listed events. The fall of the Soviet Union around 1990 also had a big impact. And the 2008 financial crisis was a big deal as well. But neither fit the timeline in the OP. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/17 "2020-03-12T15:12:32Z")
This says it all [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/u3IqtQGdTs8/maxresdefault.jpg "Easy Rider \_ Crackpot Idea") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3IqtQGdTs8) ---
**Author:** ![burpo\_the\_wonder\_mutt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/burpo_the_wonder_mutt/32/365_2.png) [@burpo\_the\_wonder\_mutt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/burpo_the_wonder_mutt)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/18 "2020-03-12T15:42:36Z")
What does any of this have to do with Natalie Portman receiving oral sex from Mila Kunis? ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/19 "2020-03-12T16:11:01Z")
It would hardly be an overstatement to say that EVERY YEAR there’s a shocking event that changes America. With that in mind, you can group them into any pattern you want. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315/20 "2020-03-12T16:20:06Z")
It’s called confirmation bias. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/every-approx-20-years-a-black-swan-shocking-event-completely-changes-america/849315.md?page=2)