I think this is one of those questions that really only comes up with a lot of speculation. After all, we only have one example of life and we’re not even sure if life might exist, or existed in the past, on other planets/moons in our own solar system. Even in our example, we have a remarkable number of variables interacting and it’s difficult to know exactly how just how important many of them are.
For instance, we have a relatively large moon, it seems many people consider it to be an important part of life evolving on Earth. How much impact would it have had on evolution here if it were bigger or smaller or we had multiple moons or no moon at all? What if days were longer or shorter or our axis had a different tilt? What if the sun was a different kind of star or were were at a different distance from it or had a different type of orbit? How much impact do the other planets, particularly the larger one and their placement have on life? Even if we lucked out and got just the right mix of all of that, we still may have gotten lucky with impacts and sun stability and all that sort of stuff. Sure, life is resilient now and exists in just about everywhere on the planet, but how much of that is due to life being inherently resilient or life being able to gradually evolve to become resilient to those different conditions?
But for the sake of argument, let’s just say it’s a given life exists in countless places throughout the universe, that still doesn’t really give us any insight into the evolution of intelligence. Yes, there are other species that are more or less intelligent on this planet, but we still only have one example of a species that has even basic technology, fire, the wheel, etc. Maybe it’s quite common that one species will, given long enough, develop advanced intelligence and technology or maybe it’s extremely rare and we just got lucky.
But let’s say for the sake of argument that human levels of intelligence is still fairly common. That doesn’t really mean much because now you don’t just have evolutionary pressure, but also cultural pressures in applying that technology. What if another similar society ended up with values akin to the Amish, shunning certain advancements in technology, except at various other levels of technology. Maybe a similar culture would be considerably more warlike and consistently kill eachother off forcing them to spend their resources just on reproduction and weapons and not on other applications or maybe our particular warlike nature is part of what helped us develop the technology we have. Or maybe a society just has different aspirations, like solving issues akin to world hunger and poverty before pursuing other advanced technologies like space exploration.
But really, until we start finding other planets that have life on them, or run into other intelligent beings, either extra terrestrial or here on Earth, how do we really weigh the probabilities?