# Existential Threats **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 5, 2021, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232 "2021-02-05T01:51:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/181 "2021-03-23T17:36:55Z")
Firstly, I’m genuinely shocked that you guys are still continuing the can tangent even without me there. It’s like I’ve set the phone down, gone drinkin’ with my friends, and picked up the phone to find you never stopped talking. But secondly, no I haven’t paid for access to the full paper, but why would I need that? The abstract is very clear that it is testing a 40-year old **can** , as well as the title of the paper being explicitly about historical **canned** food samples. Apart from you really wishing it to be the case, do you have any reason to suppose the rest of the contents contradict the summary? ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/182 "2021-03-23T17:49:49Z")
Like I said, “canned” is ambiguous in US usage - the _Monitor_ sample is a jar, and given what I now know of the contents of the _Bertrand_, the brandied peaches and mixed vegetables are also jars, and the catsup is a bottle. I don’t know what the other 4 foodstuffs were. And neither, it seems, do you. Whis is why abstracts make poor cites. Now, what was it you _originally_ said (my emphasis)? > [@Mijin](#): > > they could probably live for decades at least on **tinned** food No ambiguity there. As to why I’m still posting on this? Because I personally found my deep dive into steamboat aquatic archaeology quite fascinating in itself, and wanted to share. And because it was _still_ relevant to refuting the notion that there would be _decades_ worth of tinned food lying around after a dino-killer. Which is _not_ a “tangent”. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/183 "2021-03-23T18:08:07Z")
I wouldn’t be so fast ruling out global warming as an existential threat. The Permian Mass Extinction is generally believed to have been caused by global warming. Even if (and its an _if_) direct human intervention alone might not be able to trigger an event like that, once a [feedback loop](https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/how-feedback-loops-are-making-climate-crisis-worse) kicks in, it definitely could. An event like the Permian Mass Extinction with fundamental changes in the chemical make up of the atmosphere and ocean, could definitely wipe out humanity. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/184 "2021-03-23T18:14:01Z")
Yes, I mentioned the clathrate gun hypothesis earlier in the thread. But I wouldn’t say the P-Tr is “generally believed to have been _caused_ by global warming”. It seems the best bet is a _string_ of events, with global warming as an _effect_ of one or more of them. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/185 "2021-03-23T19:59:08Z")
They basically sort out into two or maybe three categories; 1. Unpredictable, and largely unavoidable- supervolcanoes and pandemics tend to fall into these two categories. We may have some warning, but they’re unpredictable and largely unavoidable. 2. Present, but potentially can be mitigated through human action and technology yet to be developed. This category encompasses climate change, and probably most existential threat level impact events. 3. Present, and mitigatable with existing technology. This is the drinking water contamination/shortage. There’s nothing really unknown about this- it’s just a matter of political will and funding. Same with AI; right now that’s pretty much straight up science fiction, as what they’re calling AI these days is really machine learning type stuff, not actual general AI. And that’s probably mostly mitigated by merely not networking the sorts of systems that an AI could use against us, or putting them on separate networks. As far as human extinction goes, the only one that would really pose that level of threat would be a Chixculub-level impact event, and the suspicion is that an object that size wouldn’t sneak up on us next Tuesday or anything. The rest are ones that might kill the vast majority of people, but wouldn’t kill ALL the people. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/186 "2021-03-23T20:22:13Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Yes, I mentioned the clathrate gun hypothesis earlier in the thread. > > But I wouldn’t say the P-Tr is “generally believed to have been _caused_ by global warming”. It seems the best bet is a _string_ of events, with global warming as an _effect_ of one or more of them. Well its generally (though not universally) considered to be the primary mechanism (along with some other knock effects, like ocean acidification) that lead to the extinction. Given that, it seems pretty unconvincing to say that global warming _couldn’t_ be an existential threat to mankind. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2021, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/187 "2021-03-23T20:30:42Z")
I’m not saying that. Read my first post in this thread. Or this one: > [@MrDibble](#): > > I could not agree more. > > Personally, it’s incredibly frustrating seeing people I know IRL, actual trained scientists of one stripe or another, blithely ignoring climate change as a threat while angsting about grey goo or weaponized viruses. I want to grab them, drive out to the Karroo, stand them [right on the P-T boundary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event) and yell at them for an hour or so. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/188 "2021-03-24T02:19:34Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Like I said, “canned” is ambiguous in US usage - the _Monitor_ sample is a jar, and given what I now know of the contents of the _Bertrand_ , the brandied peaches and mixed vegetables are also jars, and the catsup is a bottle. Again, the paper says “a 40‐yr old can of sweet corn”. The idea to me that a scientist would be looking at _a jar_ when he wrote that line, and decided to use a misleading word instead of jar, and then even put “Canned” in the name of the paper is as implausible to me as your speculation on how canned food worldwide would be destroyed. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/189 "2021-03-24T05:33:55Z")
No-one is questioning that the 40-year old can of sweet corn that sat happily on a shelf in a basement was a tin can. So suggesting that I’m suggesting _that_ tin was a jar is a laughable strawman. I _quite specifically_ mentioned the _Monitor_ and _Bertrand_ samples only. It’s the “cans” that were _underwater_ that I’m saying either _definitely_ aren’t tin cans, or else are _unknown_. Since _you_ emphasised it as a “cite to the contrary” for that case, too. (when initially it was just presented as a cite that a tin can _could_ be edible if it sat happily undisturbed for 40 years, when that was never something I disputed. ) No-one is questioning that food can’t be quite edible 40 years later in tin cans that sit undisturbed in basements. The issue is the number of tin cans sitting undisturbed but accessible on shelves in basements that our hypothetical dino-killer survivors are going to be able to find after 40 years. Or even 1 year. Given all the known global effects of a dino-killer. You think it’s “8 billion human’s worth”. I say it won’t even be enough for 80 000 to sustain themselves for decades, never mind 800 000. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 10:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/190 "2021-03-24T10:18:54Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > No-one is questioning that the 40-year old can of sweet corn that sat happily on a shelf in a basement was a tin can. So suggesting that I’m suggesting _that_ tin was a jar is a laughable strawman. I _quite specifically_ mentioned the _Monitor_ and _Bertrand_ samples only. So why did you say that the term “can” colloquially can mean jar? What’s the relevance, if that wasn’t your point? > [@](#): > > No-one is questioning that food can’t be quite edible 40 years later in tin cans that sit undisturbed in basements. > > The issue is the number of tin cans sitting undisturbed but accessible on shelves in basements that our hypothetical dino-killer survivors are going to be able to find after 40 years. Or even 1 year. Given all the known global effects of a dino-killer. So now the argument is that canned food _can_ survive decades but only the special ones, the vast majority (and it has to be the vast majority) aren’t special and will perish very quickly. This is completely unfalsifiable, congrats. Also, for the record, you were previously skeptical that even in optimal conditions, that canned food nutritional content would not degrade substantially when stored over very long periods. So what you should say is No-one is questioning _now_. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/191 "2021-03-24T12:07:45Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > So why did you say that the term “can” colloquially can mean jar? I explained why. Because your cite is useless for saying _anything_ about underwater preservation of tin cans. Despite you saying it was. > [@Mijin](#): > > So now the argument is that canned food _can_ survive decades but only the special ones, the vast majority (and it has to be the vast majority) aren’t special and will perish very quickly. This is completely unfalsifiable, congrats. Not unfalsifiable. Studies on tin can survivability in disaster conditions would falsify (or confirm) the point. _You_ just haven’t falsified it, especially not with that non-cite. > [@Mijin](#): > > Also, for the record, you were previously skeptical that even in optimal conditions, that canned food nutritional content would not degrade substantially when stored over very long periods. You can, of course, _quote_ me on that, right? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/192 "2021-03-24T13:08:42Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > I explained why. Because your cite is useless for saying _anything_ about underwater preservation of tin cans. Despite you saying it was. That doesn’t make any sense. What does that have to do with your insistence that “can” can mean “jar” in the US? That’s the question. You’re attempting to deflect to this underwater question rather than admit you were wrong on the cans lasting decades thing. Secondly, the paper is explicitly only about canned food. A plain reading of the title and abstract does indeed support that the can was from underwater. I would agree that there’s a possibility that the body of the paper, which neither of us have access to, might contradict the abstract. But you cannot right now claim that this speculation therefore means it’s a “non-cite”. > [@MrDibble](#): > > You can, of course, _quote_ me on that, right? Sure. I’m referring to you saying “And, while canned food iff stored properly is generally safe to eat long past its best-by dates, nutrient values go down over time even if the cans have remained intact.” The implication being that _even if_ cans are stored properly the nutritional value will significantly drop after the best-by date (otherwise why even mention nutrient values in the context of survivability?). ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/193 "2021-03-24T13:59:58Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Sure. I’m referring to you saying “And, while canned food iff stored properly is generally safe to eat long past its best-by dates, nutrient values go down over time even if the cans have remained intact.” I don’t really see the value in replying to someone who doesn’t actually have the vaguest clue who he’s responding to. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/194 "2021-03-24T17:21:39Z")
Mod hat on: @MrDibble, @Mijin: Stop it! Nobody cares about your disputes. No warnings (yet). On a linguistic note, I would definitely understand “can of corn” to refer to a tin can, while “canned corn” would suggest a (Mason) jar. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/195 "2021-03-24T17:49:27Z")
Purely to the linguistic note: that’s going to depend on where you are. I’ve certainly heard people use “can of corn” to apply to home-canned food in glass jars. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/196 "2021-03-24T18:04:06Z")
**Modnote** : @Mijin, you manually misquoted **MrDibble**. Please do not do this again. > [@Mijin](#): > > “And, while canned food iff stored properly is generally safe to eat long past its best-by dates, nutrient values go down over time even if the cans have remained intact.” Was posted by **thorny\_locust.** Now, as per **Hari\_Seldon** , drop the can/tin/jar portion of this debate. ---
**Author:** ![EastUmpqua](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eastumpqua/32/6025_2.png) [@EastUmpqua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EastUmpqua)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/197 "2021-03-24T20:30:07Z")
Ok, I know this is ‘out there’, but: What would happen if there was physical contact between humans and an alien civilization capable of getting here? We only have a sample size of 1 (Earth), but things have’t gone well here when more advanced civilizations have interacted with less advanced ones. The farther out our EM signals go (right now around 80 ly), the greater the chance that something sees them. Would humans survive this kind of contact? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/198 "2021-03-24T21:15:38Z")
Disease should be much less of a factor and that did the most harm to those already in the Western Hemisphere. Would they have any reason to take hundred of thousands or more humans away to be slaves? If they can travel interstellar distances I doubt they need grunt labor. If they want our planet for themselves, we’re probably pretty well screwed. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/199 "2021-03-24T21:35:20Z")
Speaking just to this snip. > [@EastUmpqua](#): > > The farther out our EM signals go (right now around 80 ly), the greater the chance that something sees them. That’s commonly mentioned, but the inverse cube law and the design of terrestrial transmission systems says substantially our signals are mere random noise by the time any receiver is out near Saturn. Much less well out into other star systems. Have we occasionally belched a coherent signal towards interstellar space? Sure. But the idea there’s a 70LY radius shell of _I Love Lucy_ first runs followed by reruns ever-expanding through the galaxy is fanciful. We’ve also done the “what if we encounter aliens” (more like “they encounter us”) a lot of times here on the 'Dope. A little searching might pay dividends. ---
**Author:** ![EastUmpqua](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eastumpqua/32/6025_2.png) [@EastUmpqua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EastUmpqua)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2021, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232/200 "2021-03-24T23:16:43Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > We’ve also done the “what if we encounter aliens” (more like “they encounter us”) a lot of times here on the 'Dope. A little searching might pay dividends. I found this. Thanks > [@Science Fiction Debate: Ethics and best practices of contacting other, less-developed civilizations](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/science-fiction-debate-ethics-and-best-practices-of-contacting-other-less-developed-civilizations/843573): > > So I thought I might curate some Great Debates that have nothing to do with current events but are more ethics and science fictional in nature. If it goes well, I have more. Situation: Humanity has achieved faster than light travel. Ships are small but fast so no Star Destroyers or Enterprises. What is our ethical position vis-a-vis discovering new civilizations that have not gotten into their equivalent of low-earth orbit? Do we have an ethical duty to assist an alien civilization into in… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/existential-threats/932232.md?page=11)