# Extraterrestrial and Intelligent Life Prediction **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 19, 2012, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550 "2012-12-19T17:46:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/41 "2012-12-21T12:48:31Z")
> [@akennett](#): > > No. There is simply no evidence to suggest such civilizations exist, hence there is no reason to believe that they do. I would not, however, be surprised that such civilizations do exist if, by some mysterious means, we ever did get such evidence. > > Until then, though, such a belief (that they do exist, not that they may) is no more reasonable than belief in the existence of gods. That’s not true. We have every reason to believe they are possible; our own existence proves that. We have no reason at all to think gods are possible. And give the size of the universe thinking that somewhere there must be other intelligent civilizations is a perfectly reasonable position to take; it doesn’t require (among other things) ignoring physical laws like claiming gods exist does. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/42 "2012-12-21T13:07:30Z")
> [@akennett](#): > > 1. Yes or No - Do you believe that intelligent civilization(s) exist ANYWHERE else in the Universe? > > No. There is simply no evidence to suggest such civilizations exist, hence there is no reason to believe that they do. I would not, however, be surprised that such civilizations do exist if, by some mysterious means, we ever did get such evidence. > > Until then, though, such a belief (that they do exist, not that they may) is no more reasonable than belief in the existence of gods. This sounds a bit like a common misapplication of Occam’s razor. Occam’s razor is to prefer the simpler of two equivalent explanations, not to disbelieve anything that isn’t proven by evidence. If it’s not a misapplication of the razor, but merely based on the assumption we should disbelieve in anything that we don’t have concrete evidence for, Der Trihs answered that above. The evidence for life elsewhere is inconclusive, but there are plausible arguments that it might exist. It’s not even a case of “An extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.” Since we have one case, positing the possibility of a second case isn’t “extraordinary”. If your position is “I remain unconvinced,” then that’s perfectly legit, and might also be your stand on the existence of God or gods. But that doesn’t mean that they equate. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/43 "2012-12-21T15:49:22Z")
Forget about us. I’d like to know what are the chances two separate intelligent civilizations are close enough that they could effectively communicate with each other? As to the OP: Yes there’s life. No we will never contact them. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/44 "2012-12-21T16:41:37Z")
That’s my guess. We are probably the most advanced civilization in the Milky Way, because I think the Fermi Paradox asks a very valid question, the answer to which is, “they don’t exist yet.” But in the whole universe? I would guess there’s a civilized species out there somewhere. I wouldn’t stake my life on it, but if forced to guess, I’d say yeah. On the other hand, as the expansion of space increases in speed, the knowable universe decreases. If we don’t make contact soon, we never will, and my guess is we won’t. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/45 "2012-12-21T16:52:52Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > This sounds a bit like a common misapplication of Occam’s razor. > > Occam’s razor is to prefer the simpler of two equivalent explanations, not to disbelieve anything that isn’t proven by evidence. > > If it’s not a misapplication of the razor, but merely based on the assumption we should disbelieve in anything that we don’t have concrete evidence for, Der Trihs answered that above. The evidence for life elsewhere is inconclusive, but there are plausible arguments that it might exist. It’s not even a case of “An extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.” Since we have one case, positing the possibility of a second case isn’t “extraordinary”. > > If your position is “I remain unconvinced,” then that’s perfectly legit, and might also be your stand on the existence of God or gods. But that doesn’t mean that they equate. There is no evidence for the existence of life elsewhere in the universe. That’s because the rest of the universe is very far away. We’ve barely been able to examine our own solar system. But yes, evidence is not the only reason to consider that intelligent life has formed elsewhere. As you’ve stated well, it’s not an extraordinary claim to say there likely is, because it happened once already. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/46 "2012-12-21T18:23:16Z")
> [@Shakes](#): > > Forget about us. > > I’d like to know what are the chances two separate intelligent civilizations are close enough that they could effectively communicate with each other? Well, there’s nothing theoretically impossible about two or more planets orbiting within the same Goldilocks zone, is there? That is, a star system with more than one life-bearing planet is conceivable. But, the emergence of intelligent life is a rare phenomenon, took 2 billion years on this planet, and it’s unlikely it would happen on both planets within the same geological time-period. So, when the first planet in the system produces an intelligent species, and they develop a technological civilization, they will go visit the other planets of their star system and find that some bear life, but none bear intelligent life – that is, they’re the first. It’s theoretically possible that an intelligent species will evolve some time within the next 10 million years if the planet is left alone. On the other hand, if the intelligent species exploits this life-bearing planet and colonizes it, invasive species from their world might crowd out the whole local biosphere. What we would we do in that situation, I wonder? ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/47 "2012-12-21T18:46:30Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What we would we do in that situation, I wonder? Drill there, and drill now! ---
**Author:** ![akennett](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ee59a6/32.png) [@akennett](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/akennett)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/48 "2012-12-21T18:50:17Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > The evidence for life elsewhere is inconclusive, but there are plausible arguments that it might exist. And here, both you and DT have missed the thrust of the question and my answer. The belief that there may be other life can be justified by your means. The belief that there is other life cannot. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/49 "2012-12-21T19:17:38Z")
> [@akennett](#): > > And here, both you and DT have missed the thrust of the question and my answer. The belief that there may be other life can be justified by your means. The belief that there is other life cannot. First of all, that’s a back-pedal from this quote: > [@akennett](#): > > Until then, though, such a belief (that they do exist, not that they may) is no more reasonable than belief in the existence of gods. It is more reasonable to posit other life, because we know life exists somewhere. We don’t have scientific evidence of a first god, on which to predicate the question ‘might there be others?’ Second, your question and answer are different than the OP’s question, to which you answered no. Finally, > [@akennett](#): > > The belief that there may be other life can be justified by your means. The belief that there is other life cannot. is pretty much what both \*\*LearJeff \*\*and \*\*DerTrihs \*\*said. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/50 "2012-12-21T20:00:56Z")
1. Yes. To insist that we’re alone in the universe is the highest form of arrogance. 2. Never. There’s no reason for us to have been the first intelligence in the universe to start reaching towards space- and if another race had started, oh, a million years before us, they’d already be here. After all, look how far we’ve gotten in just a few hundred years. So if the other races already exist, why aren’t they here already? I’d say it’s either a lot more energy efficient to “turn inward” and explore simulated universes, or intelligence is a kind of evolutionary “dead-end”- it might be that intelligent species inevitably kill themselves off before they can contact anyone else. Well damn. Now I’m a bit depressed. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/51 "2012-12-21T21:41:20Z")
> [@akennett](#): > > And here, both you and DT have missed the thrust of the question and my answer. The belief that there may be other life can be justified by your means. The belief that there is other life cannot. Which makes it significantly different than belief in God. We have evidence that life happened at least once. Unless we believe in miracles, that’s reason to ponder the possibility that it happened more than once. With God, we have no solid evidence that it happened even once. There’s a huge difference between comparing 0 and 1, versus comparing 1 and 2. The former is what I’d call an extrordinary claim, requiring extraordinary evidence. The latter is a pretty significant claim and would require pretty significant evidence. But a probability argument might be possible for the latter. For the former, not so much. In any case, there’s almost nothing that I know for certain, other than silly stuff like the fact that I can’t doubt my own existence without contradicting myself in the process. After metaphysical or phenomenological stuff like that, everything else is a gray area. The question is how dark or how light. Of course, I don’t posit that there is no God. I don’t use lack of evidence as evidence of lack. God and intelligent life on other planets are alike in that regard. I strongly doubt the possibility of God mostly because I can’t come up with a definition that makes much sense. There’s another difference, though. One can argue that it’s impossible to decide whether there’s a God. A higher being might do things that might seem God-like to us, but we’re easily fooled. I don’t know what would constitute real proof that there is a God. (Of course, I’d probably be convinced by a fairly simple display of apparent omnipotence, but we’re not just talking about me here.) On the other hand, evidence of intelligent life elsewhere isn’t nearly as hard to evaluate. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/52 "2012-12-21T23:25:47Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > 1. Yes. To insist that we’re alone in the universe is the highest form of arrogance. > > 2. Never. There’s no reason for us to have been the first intelligence in the universe to start reaching towards space- and if another race had started, oh, a million years before us, they’d already be here. After all, look how far we’ve gotten in just a few hundred years. So if the other races already exist, why aren’t they here already? I’d say it’s either a lot more energy efficient to “turn inward” and explore simulated universes, or intelligence is a kind of evolutionary “dead-end”- it might be that intelligent species inevitably kill themselves off before they can contact anyone else. > > Well damn. Now I’m a bit depressed. From Bruce Sterling’s SF short story “Swarm”: Afriel, a human agent of the Solar System’s Shaper faction (specializing in gene-engineering), at war with the Mechanists (prosthetics and technology), has been sent to the Hive, a cluster of asteroids in a distant star system, where, in air-filled tunnels burrowed through the rock, live the Swarm, a race of nonsentient beings with many specialized castes. His mission is purportedly scientific study, but his real mission is to domesticate the Swarm, alter their genes to make them produce things the Shapers can use. At the end, his partner, the (real) scientist Mirny, vanishes, and Swarm of the soldier caste arrest him and take him before what appears to be a new caste, a Swarm with a giant brain, which has absorbed his partner’s mind and memories through a tentacle thrust into her head, so it can now speak her language. Afriel’s pheromonal experiments created a chemical imbalance which the Queen detected, triggering genetic patterns, causing the brain to be born to deal with the threat. > [@](#): > > “Yes,” Swarm agreed. “You will be helpful. Your companion’s memories tell me that this is one of those uncomfortable periods when galactic intelligence is rife. Intelligence is a great bother. It makes all kinds of trouble for us.” > > “What do you mean?” > > “You are a young race and lay great stock by your own cleverness,” Swarm said. “As usual, you fail to see that intelligence is not a survival trait.” > > Afriel wiped sweat from his face. “We’ve done well,” he said. “We came to you, and peacefully. You didn’t come to us.” > > “I refer to exactly that,” Swarm said urbanely. “This urge to expand, to explore, to develop, is just what will make you extinct. You naively suppose that you can continue to feed your curiosity indefinitely. It is an old story, one pursued by countless races before you. Within a thousand years – perhaps a little longer – your species will vanish.” > > “You intend to destroy us, then? I warn you it will not be an easy task --” > > “Again you miss the point. Knowledge is power! Do you suppose that fragile little form of yours – your primitive legs, your ludicrous arms and hands, your tiny, scarcely wrinkled brain – can contain all that power? Certainly not! Already your race is flying to pieces under the impact of your own expertise. The original human form is becoming obsolete. Your own genes have been altered, and you, Captain-Doctor, are a crude experiment. In a hundred years you will be a relic. In a thousand years you will not even be a memory. Your race will go the same way as a thousand others.” > > “What way is that?” > > “I do not know.” The thing on the end of Swarm’s arm made a chuckling sound. “They have passed beyond my ken. They have all discovered something, learned something, that has caused them to transcend my understanding. It may be that they even transcend being. At any rate, I cannot sense their presence anywhere. The seem to do nothing, they seem to interfere in nothing; for all intents and purposes, they seem to be dead. Vanished. They may have become gods, or ghosts. In either case, I have no wish to join them.” > > “So then – so then you have --” > > “Intelligence is very much a two-edged sword, Captain-Doctor. It is useful only up to a point. It interferes with the business of living. Life, and intelligence, do not mix very well. They are not at all closely related, as you childishly assume.” ---
**Author:** ![akennett](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ee59a6/32.png) [@akennett](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/akennett)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2012, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/53 "2012-12-21T23:32:47Z")
> [@bup](#): > > First of all, that’s a back-pedal from this quote: No, there’s no backpedaling at all. You seem to be entirely skipping over the parenthetical phrase in my first statement that you quoted. > [@](#): > > Second, your question and answer are different than the OP’s question, to which you answered no. No, I answered the exact question asked, the question of belief in the existence of other intelligent life. Belief in existence is a far different thing than belief in possibility. > [@Learjeff](#): > > Which makes it significantly different than belief in God. > > We have evidence that life happened at least once. Unless we believe in miracles, that’s reason to ponder the possibility that it happened more than once. Again, you are conflating belief in possibility of existence with belief in existence. These are two entirely different questions. For the former, there is a slightly higher rationality for other intelligent life than there is for gods. This is not so for the latter. ---
**Author:** ![Cognosium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e56c9b/32.png) [@Cognosium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cognosium)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2012, 9:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/54 "2012-12-22T09:29:53Z")
While we have no reason to discount the possibility of “intelligent” (silly word!) life elsewhere than on this planet there is a plausible heuristic case to be made for the proposition that such societies may never be contacted by our species. Which, of course, is one way of accounting for the Fermi paradox. In terms of a kind of “cosmic censorship” by the non-biological cognitive entity which is on track to supersede humankind. The very broad evolutionary model which supports this contention is outlined (very informally) in “The Goldilocks Effect: What Has Serendipity Ever Done For Us?” , a free download in e-book formats from my “Unusual Perspectives” website ---
**Author:** ![eburacum45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eburacum45/32/8690_2.png) [@eburacum45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eburacum45)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2012, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/55 "2012-12-22T10:17:35Z")
Post-biological cognitive entities might be the most common form of life in the galaxy, or even in the universe. We might not easily recognise them as such, however. ---
**Author:** ![Lauren-C](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/45deac/32.png) [@Lauren-C](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lauren-C)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2012, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/56 "2012-12-22T10:31:37Z")
> [@chargerrich](#): > > Two simple questions that I am eager to hear opinions on: > > 1. Yes or No - Do you believe that intelligent civilization(s) exist ANYWHERE else in the Universe? > > 2. If Yes - When do you believe humans will make contact with such a civilization? > My predictions: > > 3. Yes (and probably hundreds of them) > > 4. Never - Even if humans could achieve interstellar travel before we self destruct and extinguish our civilization, the distance is too great. My thoughts on this are: 1. No. Big as the universe is, and it’s very, very big, I think the chances against the occurrence of all the events that brought about life are even bigger, by a very long way. There are probably an infinite number of universes in which no life evolved at all. We are just very lucky, that’s all, and if we hadn’t been, we wouldn’t be here to wonder about it. 2. Yes. We will certainly, either as humans or whatever our descendants become when we are clever enough to control the forces of nature and evolution, colonise the entire universe. We will become our own “aliens”. Since time travel will be easy, we may already be out there somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2012, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/57 "2012-12-24T21:31:19Z")
> [@Lauren-C](#): > > 1. Yes. We will certainly, either as humans or whatever our descendants become when we are clever enough to control the forces of nature and evolution, colonise the entire universe. We will become our own “aliens”. Since time travel will be easy, we may already be out there somewhere. Some things are simply, physically **impossible** no matter how clever we get. ---
**Author:** ![Don\_t\_Panic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/don_t_panic/32/398_2.png) [@Don\_t\_Panic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Panic)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/58 "2012-12-25T18:43:35Z")
Of course, one problem with using the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox to argue that aliens don’t exist, is that right now, on the planet Zog over on the other side of the galaxy, there could be someone on an alien message board using the same reasoning, and concluding that humans can’t exist. And yet we do. ---
**Author:** ![Cognosium](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e56c9b/32.png) [@Cognosium](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cognosium)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2012, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550/59 "2012-12-28T19:23:58Z")
Firstly, There is a serious problem with the Drake equation – inadequacy of reliable input. Even one incorrectly guessed input variable rendering the output meaningless. We must always remember the IT mantra of GIGO : garbage in – garbage out. So it cannot sensibly be used to argue the issue either way. With regard to the Fermi paradox, there are other ways of accounting for this rather than the exclusion of the possibility of extra terrestrial cognitive entities. One of which I discuss in chapter 17 of “Unusual Perspectives: An Escape From Tunnel Vision” (Free download) Learjeff makes a good point above in in noting that our direct evidence of imaginatory (sic) life having evolved once puts the speculation of it having occurred more than once on a far better footing than such entities as a “god” or “great flying spaghetti monster” for which there is no hard evidence whatsoever. There is also, in the broad evolutionary context of my books, a quite good heuristic case to me made for the emergence of other technological societies. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/extraterrestrial-and-intelligent-life-prediction/644550.md?page=2)