# eyeballing your lifespan? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 15, 2013, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423 "2013-02-15T19:29:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/1 "2013-02-15T19:29:23Z")
Seems to me that it should be fairly easy to come up with a fairly accurate formula to predict your lifespan–does anyone have one? So long as we’re not talking “guaranteed,” a close approximation seems feasible to me, based on fairly simple answers to a few questions: your current age your current health (life-threaening illness present, life-threatening illness imminent, life-threatening illness foreseeable, clean bill of health) parents’ ages at death and maybe one or two other issues I’m omitting here, and you should be able to invent a formula that predicts the single most likely age you’re likely to die, and the probability of that, and the next-most likely ages of your death, to the point where a range of say five years combined would account for maybe 75% or more of your likeliest death years. Is this true? ---
**Author:** ![Moonlitherial](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4bbf92/32.png) [@Moonlitherial](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moonlitherial)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/2 "2013-02-15T19:30:19Z")
This is what accuaries do for a living. It’s a lot more complicated than that and they bet millions on the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/3 "2013-02-15T19:35:20Z")
Right. but I’m asking about eyeballing, not predicting like my job is on the line. How close has anyone come to actuaries’ accuracy with just a few ballpark answers to this type of question? ---
**Author:** ![Sattua](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sattua/32/11906_2.png) [@Sattua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sattua)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/4 "2013-02-15T20:33:08Z")
I can’t vouch for their accuracy, but this is what [realage.com](http://realage.com) claims to do. ---
**Author:** ![colander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e8c25b/32.png) [@colander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colander)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/5 "2013-02-15T20:42:05Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Right. but I’m asking about eyeballing, not predicting like my job is on the line. How close has anyone come to actuaries’ accuracy with just a few ballpark answers to this type of question? If we could do that, we’d be paying actuaries a shitload less money. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/6 "2013-02-15T20:46:04Z")
There are plenty of life expectancy calculators online. [Lifespan Calculator](http://media.nmfn.com/tnetwork/lifespan/) [How long will I live?](http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html) This site is an aggregator of [Life Expectancy Calculators](http://www.lifeexpectancycalculators.com/) In the days before the Internet, there was an episode of _All in the Family_ that revolved around a lifespan expectancy quiz in a magazine. I remember taking the quiz for myself, and I think millions of viewers did the same. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/7 "2013-02-15T21:28:40Z")
Thanks. I just took the Wharton test and found it gave me a life expectancy of another 30 years, which is more than I would have thought. That’s what I was looking for (the test, not the result.) I am disgustingly healthy. ---
**Author:** ![Sattua](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sattua/32/11906_2.png) [@Sattua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sattua)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/8 "2013-02-15T21:57:59Z")
Jesus. Both tests say I’ll live into my mid-90s. I don’t know if I want that. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2013, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/9 "2013-02-15T22:00:09Z")
That Wharton test is interesting. I am going to, surprisingly, live another 28 years but if I give up sex with my one partner I can live another month. Giving up driving will earn me an extra 18 days. Becoming a keen exerciser will gain me 6 months and drinking 2 or 3 drinks a day will be worth 3 months more. So my choices are clear; more exercise to offset the driving and more drinking to enable the sex to continue. Sounds good to me. Bottoms up. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2013, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/10 "2013-02-16T15:56:59Z")
I looked at some of these. The simple age-gender only chart says I’ll live to 80. One of the more involved data ones said 75. Another said 90. There’s probably one out there that’d say I was already dead. I wouldn’t put much faith is these. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2013, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/11 "2013-02-16T16:06:43Z")
The younger you are at the present time, I’d imagine, the wider the range each formula will likely have, of course. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2013, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/eyeballing-your-lifespan/650423/12 "2013-02-16T21:36:57Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > The younger you are at the present time, I’d imagine, the wider the range each formula will likely have, of course. I am definitely not young. Hence my comment implying the margin of error is large enough to include “already dead”.