# Factors in handicapping the democratic race to the White House post Super Tuesday. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510 "2008-02-06T14:05:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![tds1273](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/df705f/32.png) [@tds1273](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tds1273)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2008, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/61 "2008-02-06T23:05:31Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Actually, the only person he’s really acknowledged as being on his short list is Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. Now _that_ would be the dream ticket in my book! Take a look at some of [her ad campaigns](http://holdfastblog.com/2008/01/28/kathleen-sebelius/) from her 2006 run for re-election (particularly the 4th one down) and you’ll see what Obama might see in her as a running mate. [/QUOTE] Seconded! Ever since the SotU, I’ve been hoping she would win the spot. There is also [this:](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius#Early_political_career) > [@](#): > > In 1994 she left the House to run for state insurance commissioner and stunned political forecasters by winning — the first time a Democrat had won in more than 100 years. She is credited with bringing the agency out from under the influence of the insurance industry. She refused to take campaign contributions from insurers and blocked the proposed merger of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas, the state’s largest health insurer, with an Indiana-based company. The decision by Sebelius marked the first time the corporation had been rebuffed in its acquisition attempts." …and just recently [this:](http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics/story/470472.html) > [@](#): > > Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius opposes a bill that would allow a western Kansas coal-burning plant to expand under new restrictions on carbon emissions. > > “Kansas would be the coal capital of the country” if the bill passes, Sebelius said. > > The governor said the rules on carbon emissions were too generous to utilities, and could actually encourage more coal-powered plants that generate electricity. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/62 "2008-02-07T00:36:33Z")
Factors in handicapping the democratic race to the White House post Super Tuesday? How about these. . . [Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey on Wednesday endorsed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for president](http://www.ketv.com/news/15235459/detail.html) [U.S. Rep. Tim Walz (MN-01) announced his endorsement of Barack Obama for president, the campaign announced today](http://www.politicalvoiceblogs.com/2008/02/06/us-rep-tim-walz-d-mn-endorses-barack-obama-for-president/) [The Seattle Times endorses Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for president](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2004145661_obamaed27.html) [Seattle’s oldest daily, the Post-Intelligencer endorsed Barack Obama](http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/349715_prezed.html), saying, “In this history-making race, Sen. Barack Obama is the better choice over his worthy rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, because of the real prospects he offers for change in domestic policy, the tone of government in Washington, D.C., and the conduct of foreign affairs” [Washington’s largest labor group — the Service Employee’s International Union (SEIU), endorsed Barack Obama today](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004168055_webendorse07m.html) How’re those for factors? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/63 "2008-02-07T00:50:08Z")
Oh, and let’s factor in Obama’s amazing grass roots fund raising. . . [Thanks to you, we have raised more than $3 million **since the polls closed on February 5th**.](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGGpp) $3 million in less than 24 hours! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/64 "2008-02-07T01:12:15Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] I’m quite certain he’s not, as evidenced by how he described the person who would be his running mate at the debate in Los Angeles. Does that sound _at all_ how he would describe Hillary Clinton? Pshaw! Not in a million years. Actually, the only person he’s really acknowledged as being on his short list is Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius. Now _that_ would be the dream ticket in my book! Take a look at some of [her ad campaigns](http://holdfastblog.com/2008/01/28/kathleen-sebelius/) from her 2006 run for re-election (particularly the 4th one down) and you’ll see what Obama might see in her as a running mate. [/QUOTE] But he hardly needs help in Kansas. I was a big fan of Richardson, but his chance has come and gone. Now I’ve jumped on [Phil Bredesen’s](http://www.tennesseeanytime.org/governor/Budget.do) wagon. (I forget who first brought him up, but it’s not my idea, I just think it’s a great one.) Compatible on the issues. Fiscally responsible. Strong on education, healthcare, and the environment. Popular Southern White male governor. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/65 "2008-02-07T01:57:50Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Oh, and let’s factor in Obama’s amazing grass roots fund raising. . . [Thanks to you, we have raised more than $3 million **since the polls closed on February 5th**.](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGGpp) $3 million in less than 24 hours! [/QUOTE] That is so telling. Heck my wife and I matched $500 with our cousins in Boston this morning 😃 This whole race is about to flop in Obama’s favor…Clinton was expected to grab the states and delegates she did- now is the time for Obama to make his run. Let’s watch and see. ---
**Author:** ![kevja](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@kevja](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kevja)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/66 "2008-02-07T02:14:36Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] Clinton’s camp is admitting that they’ll be outspent in the coming weeks and that Obama is making more money than they are. [This article](http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iU_P23eyGmxqE8EEa7ba6r86BpIwD8UKVA1O0) also mentions the possibility of Hillary dipping into the Clinton’s personal kitty to make up the difference. It’s not saying that she is, just that it exists and she could. [/QUOTE] It’s not disputed that she borrowed 5 million dollars of her moneyto stay in the race. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/67 "2008-02-07T02:24:07Z")
That article posted before I saw the admission break. In fact, I think I posted about it right after 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/68 "2008-02-07T03:23:27Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Surprisingly, there is quite literally nothing in the way of primaries and caucuses in the six weeks between March 11 and April 22. I’m sure the Dems won’t be this swift on the uptake, but if they had a clue, they’d get Michigan and Florida to hold caucuses during that period, to pick delegate slates that everyone could agree were legitimate. The whole point of holding primaries early was to impact the nomination race. But if they held caucuses in that six-week gap (e.g. FL on 3/25, and MI on 4/8), they’d be the only game in town for a couple weeks apiece, and probably do more to determine the outcome than if they’d gone early. And all within the rules, too. It would seem like win-win for everybody, except maybe Hillary if she insists on trying to seat the delegate slates from the zeroed-out Dem primaries in MI and FL. [/QUOTE] [Well …](http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/politics-1/1202329441260400.xml&storylist=newsmichigan&thispage=1) > [@](#): > > The Democratic National Committee is pressuring Michigan and Florida to hold Democratic presidential caucuses so the delegates they’ve lost for holding January primaries can be seated at the national convention, a top Michigan Democrat said Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/69 "2008-02-07T14:03:54Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Oh, and let’s factor in Obama’s amazing grass roots fund raising. . . [Thanks to you, we have raised more than $3 million **since the polls closed on February 5th**.](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGGpp) $3 million in less than 24 hours! [/QUOTE] The numbers people are talking about - $3 million or $5 million-plus or whatever in a day - are just incredible. Over the next few days I think the press will start doing more stories about Obama’s momentum. ---
**Author:** ![jaydotbeedot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/54ee81/32.png) [@jaydotbeedot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jaydotbeedot)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/70 "2008-02-07T14:14:32Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] The numbers people are talking about - $3 million or $5 million-plus or whatever in a day - are just incredible. Over the next few days I think the press will start doing more stories about Obama’s momentum. [/QUOTE] As of Thursday morning, Obama’s site is saying $7m since Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/71 "2008-02-07T14:23:56Z")
Bah - $3 million, $5 million - that’s a drop in the bucket. It’s over _$7 million_ dollars this morning. :eek: $7,067,270 I guess another factor in handicapping this race will turn out to be a [potentially BIG problem](http://haussamen.blogspot.com/2008/02/uncounted-rio-arriba-county-ballots.html) in the still-too-close-to-call New Mexico. > [@](#): > > [Three] ballot boxes spent the night at the home of Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, whose state-lawmaker husband, Sen. Richard Martinez, endorsed Hillary Clinton. But Richard Martinez told Santa Fe New Mexican reporter Kate Nash that the boxes actually spent the night in the homes of three polling-place managers. He gave Nash no explanation for why the results from those ballots weren’t reported to the state party last night and why they were instead kept overnight in officials’ homes. Wanna know who those votes ended up favoring? > [@](#): > > [Votes from three polling sites in Rio Arriba County](http://www.koat.com/news/15230516/detail.html) – at Espanola Middle School, Hernandez Elementary School and Chimayo Elementary School – were finally released Wednesday evening, widening Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lead to 1,092 votes. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/72 "2008-02-07T14:41:20Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Bah - $3 million, $5 million - that’s a drop in the bucket. It’s over _$7 million_ dollars this morning. :eek: $7,067,270 I guess another factor in handicapping this race will turn out to be a [potentially BIG problem](http://haussamen.blogspot.com/2008/02/uncounted-rio-arriba-county-ballots.html) in the still-too-close-to-call New Mexico. Wanna know who those votes ended up favoring? [/QUOTE] Big Sigh…What a sham. I’ll need to look into this and read more about it. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/73 "2008-02-07T15:04:27Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Bah - $3 million, $5 million - that’s a drop in the bucket. It’s over _$7 million_ dollars this morning. :eek: $7,067,270 I guess another factor in handicapping this race will turn out to be a [potentially BIG problem](http://haussamen.blogspot.com/2008/02/uncounted-rio-arriba-county-ballots.html) in the still-too-close-to-call New Mexico. Wanna know who those votes ended up favoring? [/QUOTE] All the problems that New Mexico has had can be squarely placed on the incompetence of the New Mexico Democratic Party. They were the ones running this primary, not the state. Some of the problems: 1. Overconsolidation of precincts. The worst was Rio Rancho (a suburb of Albuquerque), where they tried to stick 45 precincts into one high school. 2. Unrealistic expectations. The party chair expected a high of 40,000 voters (after more than 100,000 had voted in 2004.) So besides overconsolidation, that also means they ran out of printed ballots. 3. Shorter hours. State-run elections have the polling places open from 7 to 7; the party had their hours from noon to 7. 4. Out-of-date party rolls (which they should have gotten from the county clerks or the Secretary of State.) That, along with the crowding, explains why there are 17,000 provisional ballots. Again, though, the date for changing voter registration to Democrat was January 4th, and the state offices did their part in getting their rolls up-to-date in time. So the party has only itself to blame. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/74 "2008-02-07T16:16:38Z")
I received this e-mail today from an attorney poll-watching organization I belong to: > [@](#): > > The biggest “success” that I had as a poll watcher is that when they > closed the machine in the 71st ED, the inspector read Obama’s number > as “30” when it was actually 130. I happened to be standing there, so > I quickly pointed out and may have prevented the loss of 100 votes. That kind of stuff probably balances out in the end, but it is still a good show of how messed up the process is. I heard California was terrible. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/75 "2008-02-07T17:58:20Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Big Sigh…What a sham. I’ll need to look into this and read more about it. [/QUOTE] There WAS a huge blizzard in Rio Ariba county just prior to Tuesday. Road closures and such lead to a lot of improvising. Also, this “caucus” was funded by the state democratic party, and not government run. I won’t rule out shenanigans, but some of the irregularities are explainable. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/76 "2008-02-07T18:18:21Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] [Well …](http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/politics-1/1202329441260400.xml&storylist=newsmichigan&thispage=1) [/QUOTE] !!! **That** should be interesting! Florida has always been a primary state – we would need out-of-state advisors just to teach us how to **run** a caucus! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/77 "2008-02-07T18:19:04Z")
Let’s play out a few scenerios … Obama does well, quite well, in the next series, and HRC does well in OH and TX. Leaves them still neck and neck and they stay neck and neck. The election is decided by either superdelegates deciding without a clear mandate or by seating delegates from FL and MI or in a brokered convention. (Even new caucuses there would be enough to make some upset at a perceived change of the rules mid-game.) Democrats lose to McCain either way. The levels of disaffection with the process would be very hard to offset. Obama does just as well in the next series _and_ pulls off an upset in either TX or OH or minimally a virtual tie in each. Superdelegates start to flock to Obama and the pressure builds for HRC to drop. She does. HRC pulls off keeping the next few as even or she goes ahead and she takes TX and OH as expected. HRC wins in a similar process. In short, Obama _needs_ to both do well in these next several and upset in either TX or OH to really win, and HRC needs to stop his momentum in the next several states and take both of those to really win. Anything other than those options will let one get the nomination but very likely lose the general. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/78 "2008-02-07T18:30:10Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Let’s play out a few scenerios … Obama does well, quite well, in the next series, and HRC does well in OH and TX. Leaves them still neck and neck and they stay neck and neck. The election is decided by either superdelegates deciding without a clear mandate or by seating delegates from FL and MI or in a brokered convention. (Even new caucuses there would be enough to make some upset at a perceived change of the rules mid-game.) Democrats lose to McCain either way. The levels of disaffection with the process would be very hard to offset. [/QUOTE] I don’t think that really matters that much in the general. It’s determined by who can best appeal to the **swing** voters, who mostly will have observed the parties’ nominating processes with detachment. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/79 "2008-02-07T18:38:27Z")
It just occurred to me . . . If Obama and Clinton are still running neck-and-neck after Texas, and the Michigan and Florida parties decide to run caucuses . . . then Florida and Michigan Dems suddenly become **real** important! The whole primary campaigning season passed us by . . . it was rather boring . . . but that would change. The nation’s attention would be (briefly) focused on these states, especially delegate-rich Florida. Fun, fun, fun! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/80 "2008-02-07T18:50:17Z")
Already pre-pandered to delegate rich Florida. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=5)