# Factors in handicapping the democratic race to the White House post Super Tuesday. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510 "2008-02-06T14:05:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/81 "2008-02-07T18:59:44Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Already pre-pandered to delegate rich Florida. [/QUOTE] You’re referring to Clinton, I suppose? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/82 "2008-02-07T19:47:43Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Wanna know who those votes ended up favoring? [/QUOTE] Out with it. Are you saying that Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, or her husband, fraudulently altered the voting results to favor Senator Clinton? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/83 "2008-02-07T19:55:19Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Out with it. Are you saying that Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, or her husband, fraudulently altered the voting results to favor Senator Clinton? [/QUOTE] Can it be completely and with out a doubt ruled out? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/84 "2008-02-07T19:58:47Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] !!! **That** should be interesting! Florida has always been a primary state – we would need out-of-state advisors just to teach us how to **run** a caucus! [/QUOTE] No reason not to run it just like a primary. These days, the primary-v.-caucus distinction in nomenclature seems to address who runs it (state v. party) rather than style of voting (secret ballot v. open, interactive). ETA: Wikipedia’s referring to [Tuesday’s New Mexico voting](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Mexico_Democratic_caucuses%2C_2008) as a caucus. And as others have noted here, it was primary-style voting, but run by the party rather than by the state. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2008, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/85 "2008-02-07T20:06:49Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Out with it. Are you saying that Rio Arriba County Democratic Party Chair Theresa Martinez, or her husband, fraudulently altered the voting results to favor Senator Clinton? [/QUOTE] I’m saying exactly what I posted. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/86 "2008-02-08T19:21:21Z")
More factors in handicapping the race: [ul][li]California’s **pledged** delegate count is still up for grabs. [/li][quote] [Nonpartisans' ballots to be checked](http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-vote7feb07,0,5576323.story) "Spurred by confusion over Tuesday’s voting, acting Los Angeles County Registrar Dean Logan said Wednesday that his office will examine more than 94,000 ballots cast by nonpartisan voters to determine how many votes for presidential candidates may have gone uncounted. Logan said he also will try to determine whether the uncounted ballots would make a difference in the way delegates are apportioned between the Democratic presidential candidates and, if so, **will seek legal approval to count as many as possible**." . . . “We are going to go back and look at those ballots and make a determination of how many made a presidential selection without marking a bubble,” Logan said. “ **If we can clearly identify the voters’ intent, we will seek legal authority to count those votes**.” [/quote] [li][Kentucky Congressman John Yarmuth Endorses Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGMXp)[/li][li][Washington state Governor Chris Gregoire endorses Barack Obama for President](http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/6420ap_wa_gregoire_obama.html)[/li][li][Iowa Governor Chet Culver endorses Barack Obama for President](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGGkz)[/li][\*][TIME Poll: ‘Clinton More Beatable than Obama’](http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1711123,00.html)[/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/87 "2008-02-08T19:37:22Z")
[ul][\*][Wisconsin Congressman Dave Obey is endorsing Barack Obama for president](http://www.wsaw.com/home/headlines/15445826.html)[/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/88 "2008-02-08T19:44:58Z")
It’s all good news **Shayna** , glad you are keeping the west coast in check! My wife and I may head up to Maine on Saturday to see him AGAIN. We have relatives in Bangor. The only thing is if it is snowing we won’t go…it’s 7 hours. This is really shaping up nicely for Barack. This morning on Good Morning America, Newt Gingrich was on…Dian Sawyer said to him, "_Well Newt, you have accurately picked the last two months in this democratic presidential race. You said Obama would have a surge and Bill Clinton wouldn’t help Hillary…what are you saying now…"_ He basically said Obama may already have the momentum to bring him to the nomination. And that Hillary doesn’t have the staying power in this election as she once did. 😃 Nice. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/89 "2008-02-08T19:56:47Z")
I hate to rain on the parade, but [The Prince of Darkness](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/karl_rove_on_the_democratic_race.html) says Hillary has the edge: > [@](#): > > I think it’s going to be Senator Clinton because I think Senator Obama’s best shots are largely behind him. That is to say, between what has been voted on through Tuesday night and what comes in February, he has had more caucus states where he does well and he has had most of the states that have substantial African-American populations, where he has done extremely well. > > But, look, it’s going to be a very close contest. I suspect that it’s ultimately going – the margin of victory is going to be decided by how the Super Delegates split. That is to say, the delegates that are actually elected in caucuses and primaries will be closely divided, probably with a small advantage to Senator Clinton, maybe with a small advantage to Senator Obama. But I think ultimately what happens among those Super Delegates will provide the margin of victory and give a little bit of acceleration to the winner by giving him or her a slightly larger margin. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/90 "2008-02-08T20:07:24Z")
Man, I WISH there was a Rally I could get to. I’m so envious. But good for you for continuing to get out there and keep the support for him visible! The great news about Congressman Obey’s support, is twofold. First, as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, he is one of the most powerful Democrats on Capitol Hill. Second, he’s a former Edwards supporter, which means his endorsement could potentially draw a lot of the former Edwards people over to Obama’s side along with him. > [@](#): > > [http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?bid=1&pid=282335](http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?bid=1&pid=282335) > > “America desperately needs a new president who can reach across old barriers to form new alliances that can produce a new era of optimism and a healthier respect for the needs of others. I had originally supported John Edwards for President, but with his withdrawal I am voting for Barack Obama.” This bodes very, very well for Obama. Also, this little gem is hidden down near the bottom of that article. . . > [@](#): > > The unions are making their moves: The Transport Workers Union, which represents 140,000 workers nationwide and has long been one of the savviest political players on economic issues, just announced that, “With Senator Edwards out of the race, our officers found it an easy decision to lend our support to the Obama campaign.” So yet another big Union endorsement, as well. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/91 "2008-02-08T20:08:13Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I hate to rain on the parade, but [The Prince of Darkness](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/karl_rove_on_the_democratic_race.html) says Hillary has the edge: [/QUOTE] And you would trust his view because… ? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/92 "2008-02-08T20:12:55Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] And you would trust his view because… ? [/QUOTE] I think he knows how voters think. He may be reprehensible, but I have respect for his opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/93 "2008-02-08T20:18:38Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I hate to rain on the parade, but [The Prince of Darkness](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/karl_rove_on_the_democratic_race.html) says Hillary has the edge: [/QUOTE] Simply put, he’s wrong. He’s projecting what he’d _like_ to believe is true, because it gives Republicans the best shot at maintaining their stranglehold on our government. [KFI-AM640](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KFI)’s Bill Handel told his listeners this morning that, since he’s not allowed to vote in the Republican Primary for the candidate of his choice, McCain, because he’s registered as an “independent”, he voted in the Democratic Primary for the candidate he thinks McCain has the best chance of beating; Hillary Clinton. Republicans are not only _praying_ she’s our nominee, they’re actively working towards that end, including planting the seed in people’s minds that she’s got the advantage. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/94 "2008-02-08T20:21:43Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I think he knows how voters think. [/quote] That explains the last midterm elections. 😉 I think Rove is more into pushing an agenda than analysis and I would never take his word at face value. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/95 "2008-02-08T20:23:58Z")
They’re almost coming in too fast to keep up with. . . [ul][li][Nebraska superdelegate and chairman of the DNC’s Native American Caucus, Frank LaMere, endorses Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGMXd)[/ul] [/li][quote] "We, as Native Americans, have always stood four square with the Democratic Party and they have always stood four square with us. We will continue to do so in 2008 as we elect a Democratic President to restore the national vision that has been blurred during the last eight years. I ask your help in this endeavor. All in this country know that Native people continue to suffer disproportionate need. In light of the service and sacrifice of or young men and women during times of war it is hard to reconcile why this should be. We must continue to pray that things be better for the children, the elders, the sick and incarcerated, all of the dispossessed among us. We must pray for those who have no voice. More importantly, we must continue to hope. Our forebears have taught us that the survival of the generations to come is dependent on our willingness to hope and to change things for the better. To this end, there is a man who talks of this audacity of hope and of the need for change. He is Barack Obama. He has engaged the Indian Nations with his message and we have listened. It is now time to act. " [/quote] We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/96 "2008-02-08T21:38:17Z")
[Former Clinton superdelegate from New Jersey moves over to the undecided column](http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--delegates-nj0208feb08,0,5374058.story). > [@](#): > > 3:57 PM EST, February 8, 2008 > > NEWARK, N.J. - Recent remarks by Hillary Clinton and former President Clinton prompted one of New Jersey’s superdelegates to reconsider her support of the former first lady and move to an undecided status. > > . . . > > Democratic superdelegate Christine “Roz” Samuels of Montclair said she changed her preference for Hillary Clinton after the former president’s comments about Obama’s stance on the Iraq war, and after Hillary Clinton’s comments about Martin Luther King. > > “I’m disappointed in a few things that were said a few weeks ago by President Clinton,” she said. “I’m going to have to revisit what I’m going to do between now and when we vote.” ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/97 "2008-02-08T22:33:12Z")
Ok, what’s wrong with this sentence? [Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and John McCain (R-AZ) are Washington’s top Democratic hopefuls, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll.](http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7009975261) 😃 But in spite of the mis-characterization of McCain as a “Democratic hopeful,” the news is good. . . > [@](#): > > Obama leads rival Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 53 percent to 40 percent in the state. And in Virginia: > [@](#): > > [http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/02/obama\_leads\_in.html](http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/02/obama_leads_in.html) > > Barack Obama holds a sizable lead over Hillary Clinton in Virginia, the biggest prize for Democrats on what is being dubbed the “Potomac Primary” on Tuesday, according to a new poll. > > Insider Advantage says that Obama has a 52 percent to 37 percent lead ---
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/98 "2008-02-08T23:27:20Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Man, I WISH there was a Rally I could get to. [/QUOTE] I just came back from the Seattle rally. It was fantastic. My hands hurt from clapping so much. And I think think think my wife’s been pulled from the HRC camp. And she’s going to caucus tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2008, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/99 "2008-02-08T23:57:07Z")
[QUOTE=Aguecheek] I just came back from the Seattle rally. It was fantastic. My hands hurt from clapping so much. And I think think think my wife’s been pulled from the HRC camp. And she’s going to caucus tomorrow. [/QUOTE] Oh **Aguecheek** , that is awesome! Have her watch [this video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdDzvmY1XPo), a 20 minute presentation by Lawrence Lessig, Law Professor at Stanford, and see if you can’t push her over the edge (if you think that type of approach would speak to her). And of that doesn’t work, just go for the jugular with [this one](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmUUYo9o9eg). 😃 I watched part of the rally via live stream online, and it was incredible! Lucky, lucky you! ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/100 "2008-02-09T00:04:13Z")
And they just keep acomin’. . . [ul][\*][Bangor Daily News Endorses Barack Obama for President](http://bangornews.com/news/t/default.aspx?a=159891&template=print-article.htm).[/ul] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=6)