# Factors in handicapping the democratic race to the White House post Super Tuesday. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510 "2008-02-06T14:05:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/121 "2008-02-09T17:30:50Z")
I just answered this in the other thread… I don’t hate Hillary or Chelsea or Bill. I don’t want to see another Clinton in the WH. mkay… Yeah - poor Hillary 😃 that’s a good one **spoke-**. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/122 "2008-02-09T18:49:29Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Are you equally as tired of Romney’s sons as you are of Clinton’s daughter, and if not, considering that they’ve been much further out in his campaign, why not? :dubious: [/QUOTE] Well, Shuster’s (claimed) objection to Chelsea was due to the fact (perception?) that the Clintons shield her from the press (“_slamming any reporter who seeks to chat with chelsea_” in his words), while she’s actively, directly, and personally contacting superdelegates (and others). Kind of promotes the feeling of “back-room” politics-as-usual. I don’t think Romney did any such thing…though I have to admit that I never paid Romney much mind and so might have missed it. Not that I care one way or the other, just pointing it out. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/123 "2008-02-09T19:47:12Z")
Add one more to the pot. . . [ul][\*][Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch endorses Barack Obama](http://www.boston.com/news/local/rhode_island/articles/2008/02/09/rhode_island_attorney_general_lynch_endorses_obama/).[/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/124 "2008-02-09T19:51:01Z")
I love these updates. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/125 "2008-02-09T20:00:27Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I love these updates. [/QUOTE] Then you’re going to REALLY love this one. . . It’s looking very good in Nebraska right now. Caucus-goers are returning with early results: (bolding mine) > [@](#): > > [http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/Cyk9](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/Cyk9) > > By Husker for Obama – 25 minutes ago > > At my caucus location, Obama supporters outnumbered Clinton supporters 4 to 1!! > > It was inspiring to see that people understand that this is our moment and it is true that “we are the ones we’ve been waiting for!” > > Out of 10 delegates the score card showed- > > ## **Obama - 8 Clinton - 2** > > By ObamaSince2004 – 7 minutes ago > > The results from my caucus were about the same. > > ## **Obama-7 Clinton-3** > > By P.Licavoli – 23 minutes ago > > "Just got back from Caucus Day Nebraska '08! **PICS** > > What an exciting experience! This was a first time for me. I attempted to become a delegate but after I saw about 30 other people vying, I just gave up. No big deal! > > I’ve got friends in other parts of town, here’s how it went down at Steamfitter’s Local 464: > > I arrived early. The main room was packed wall to wall. They opened up three overflow rooms! The turnout was amazing! One of my friends who came along registered as a democrat. During the re-alignment procedures, it was great seeing all the undecideds flock to the Obama side. I was surprised, as the individual that was elected as the leader was not as strong as I would have liked. Nevertheless, in our room alone **the final vote was 220 to 102 in favor of Obama, if I recall. Six delegates for Barack, three for Hillary**. > > My friend in South Omaha said their group had a total of about **450 people, with a 2/3rd split for Obama**. > > ## My girlfriend caucused in midtown and she reports that both Bob Kerry and Omaha’s mayor, Mike Fahey, were on-hand to caucus as well. Kerry, as you know, has endorsed Hillary. Fahey, on the other hand, has endorsed Obama. **The final vote was 900 for Obama, 200 for Hillary**." > > By Aaron – 21 minutes ago > I had to wait in line for an hour and there were some behind that surely waited more. It was very unorganized and a lot of complaining. Inside it took a long time (I’ve caucused twice in Iowa before and it was never this long–though there are far more people out this year). > > ## Inside, **the Obama crowd was overflowing everywhere and we outnumbered Clinton about 650-350. I believe we took the delegates 7-4**. Considering the makeup of my caucus site, I’d say that was very good for Obama. > > By jrector – 14 minutes ago > > Just got back from the Caucus. > > My precinct, #2, at North High School, was declared as a state of emergency. They expected 300 - 500 people to show up and instead over 1400 showed up. > > They filled the high school’s auditorium and the cafeteria. > > Final count: > > \*\*Omaba: 1378 > Clinton: 26 > > She didn’t get 15% of the vote, so all the delegates went to Obama.\*\* > > So far so good in NE. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/126 "2008-02-09T22:14:02Z")
[ul][li][Judge Patricia M. Wald, former Chief Judge of the D.C. Circuit and recently a member of the Iraq Intelligence Commission endorses Barack Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/Cyfd).[/ul] [/li][quote] I have spent more than 40 years of my near-80 in public service as a federal judge, international judge, Justice Department official, and public interest lawyer. A veteran of the woman’s movement since its infancy in the 1960’s, an ardent Democrat, and an equally ardent supporter of women’s rights-to-choose, to work, to live as we see fit, and yes, one day to elect a woman President, I hail the advances in my life-time that have resulted in Senator Clinton’s dramatic bid for our nation’s highest office. But legions of women my age have fought for the opportunity to be judged on our skills, talents and abilities, not on our gender. Perhaps we were naive, but we believed if we were allowed to enter the game alongside men, we would prove our worth. That is the standard by which, I believe, Senator Clinton’s candidacy should now be judged. Which is prelude to why I support Barack Obama and why, with a troop of wonderfully gritty older women, I spent 8 days on the icy streets of Cedar Rapids, Iowa – with a return to the hustings in Delaware last week – campaigning for Senator Obama. [/quote] ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/127 "2008-02-09T23:06:57Z")
Just got back from my WA caucus. 3:1 for Obama. Obama is receiving 6 delegates from my precinct to the county convention, Clinton gets 2. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/128 "2008-02-09T23:18:40Z")
[QUOTE=Knorf] Just got back from my WA caucus. 3:1 for Obama. Obama is receiving 6 delegates from my precinct to the county convention, Clinton gets 2. [/QUOTE] 🙂 Keep’em coming! ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/129 "2008-02-09T23:22:20Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Keep’em coming! [/QUOTE] Ok, my pleasure! [ul][li][The Cleveland Plain Dealer, the largest newspaper in Ohio, has endorsed Barack Obama for President](http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/02/plain_dealer_endorses_obama_mc.html#obama).[/ul][/li] 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/130 "2008-02-09T23:26:34Z")
I just got back from our caucus (central WA). Although I can only conclusively say that my precinct gave 2 delegates to Obama, 0 for Hillary (12 people, 10/1 OBama/Clinton split, 1 uncommitted), my sense was that the room was at least 2/3 for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Aguecheek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a9adbd/32.png) [@Aguecheek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aguecheek)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/131 "2008-02-09T23:31:53Z")
[QUOTE=Digital Stimulus] Glad to hear it, and glad that I was the one who tipped you off about only the caucuses counting here in WA. [/QUOTE] And many thanks for that! Just got back from the caucus - it was huge. Probably about 1,000 people there. Before they started, they asked everyone who’d caucused before to raise their hand. And no joke, only four people did. I sat back and watched our precinct do its thang. 26 people there - 20 for Obama, 4 for Clinton, 1 Edwards, 1 Uncommitted. No one changed their mind. 4 delegates for Obama, 2 for Clinton. The coolest part was the demographics of the Obama people: two younger couples, about 2 mid-thirties women by themselves, a 50-ish dad and his 18-ish daughter (she voted), 3 older women by themselves, 3 older men by themselves, and (the best part) an older couple in their mid-sixties with whom I talked before at the monthly neighbourhood association meeting. From talking with him before, I would have sworn he was conservative, but he was there with his wife, for Obama. Just goes to show. Only one black guy in the group, but then the whole area is pretty solidly white, so no surprises there. I’m missing a few from the total, but there was 20. The Clinton people were a 70-ish couple, and two late forties women by themselves. It was fun, although loud and tiring. And my wife voted Obama. ETA: For every Hillary sticker I saw on someone, I probably saw about 5 Obama ones, if not more. Oddly, every table had a large “Hillary” campaign sign on it, probably placed there by a precinct supporter. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/132 "2008-02-09T23:35:25Z")
[QUOTE=Aguecheek] And my wife voted Obama. [/QUOTE] Great! I see a lot of people turning out for him, let’s hope he can pull it off in the end! I know he can! We had the phones going like crazy today for Obama - such support, such die hard support! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/133 "2008-02-09T23:42:10Z")
A recent [CNN poll](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/20008.matchups.schneider/index.html) shows Clinton beating McCain by 50% to 47% – within the 3% margin of error – but Obama beating McCain by 52% to 44%. A _Time_ poll shows similar results. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/134 "2008-02-09T23:45:31Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] A recent [CNN poll](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/08/20008.matchups.schneider/index.html) shows Clinton beating McCain by 50% to 47% – within the 3% margin of error – but Obama beating McCain by 52% to 44%. A _Time_ poll shows similar results. [/QUOTE] So in terms of hanicapping what does that tell people reading those numbers? That Obama has a better chance of winning against McCain right? How would/should a superdelegate look at those numbers? ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/135 "2008-02-09T23:52:58Z")
[QUOTE=Aguecheek] And my wife voted Obama. [/QUOTE] Woo Hoo HOO! Go **Mrs. Aguecheek**! Anecdotal evidence of a WA landslide coming in. . . > [@](#): > > [North Seattle](http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/02/stranger_caucus_watch_seattle_north_of_s) > > 43-1376 (Wallingford) was a landslide for Obama. > > * * * > > Precinct 43-2043 (Wallingford). I Just finished at John Stanford Int’l Elementary School. Obama definitely won the day. There were 8 precincts, each with 80-100 people. In my precinct, it went 14 Hillary, 75 Obama. In terms of delegates, 1 Hillary and 4 Obama. > > * * * > > 43-2113 first round: Obama-5, Clinton-1, undecided-1 > > * * * > > Count in the 1286 68 Obama, 16 Clinton, 2 undecided! Obamarama! > > * * * > > 43-1351 (Fremont) > Final Count > Obama - 109 > Clinton - 33 > Uncommitted - 2 > > Delegates awarded > 7 - Obama > 2 - Clinton And so on and so on. > [@](#): > > [South Seattle](http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/02/stranger_caucus_watch_seattle_south_of_s) > > 43-2000 At Tops/Seward school. Tons of people show up, mostly for Obama. Our little sub-precinct went 101 Obama, 24 Clinton. 5 undecideds > > * * * > > 1855 at Lowell. . . 150 people for our precint, 6 delegates for Obama, 2 for Clinon. > > * * * > > 5 delegates Obama, 2 for Hillary at Precinct 34-1513 at the Sanislow School in West Seattle > > * * * > > 43-1986 - 75 Obama, 25 Clinton, resulting in 3 delegates elected for Obama and 1 for Clinton. Etc., etc., etc. > [@](#): > > [Outside Seattle proper](http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/02/stranger_caucus_watch_beyond_seattle) > > Precinct 233, Bellingham, WWU Viking Union > > Obama 130, Clinton 12. We were all packed into a little room, so if we were committed we could leave to make room for more people. Discussions lasted for awhile, but basically a hilarious Obama landslide. > > * * * > > District 42, Precinct 213 (Bellingham, Lettered Streets E-J) @ St. Paul’s Episcopal School > > Obama 9 > Clinton 2 > > * * * > > I just got back from Tiffany Park Elementary caucusing in precinct 11-2581. It was really crowded as they had 8 precincts in a tiny gym. Ours went 5-2 in favor of Obama. It’ll be interesting to see what happened elsewhere in the state and what the final, official results will be. I can’t wait!!! ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/136 "2008-02-09T23:58:25Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] 🙂 Keep’em coming! [/QUOTE] WA 27-321 (first tally):Clinton 24 Kucinich 1 (immediately switched to Obama) Obama 91 Uncommitted 8 This is not the final tally (the Elder Ottlet was due at work, so we had to leave early), but it didn’t look as if many minds were being changed by the discussion. If these results hold, it means 12 delegates will be going to the county convention for Obama vs 3 for Clinton, with 1 uncommitted. (I heard a report on CNN this morning to the effect that Obama should do well in the SoW because Seattlites are affluent and well-educated. This precinct is in central Tacoma, blue-collar, and decidedly under the median in education and income.) ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2008, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/137 "2008-02-09T23:58:49Z")
From the Seattle Post Intelligencer: > [@](#): > > [http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/350752\_caucuses09.html?source=mypi](http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/350752_caucuses09.html?source=mypi) > > Early reports showed especially strong support for Sen. Barack Obama. The Illinois senator was sweeping two solidly Democratic Seattle neighborhoods Saturday, one of them a neighborhood that President Clinton visited for a fundraiser eight years ago. > > Official results from both parties were expected after 6 p.m. > > In Madrona’s 37th District, Obama was piling up landslide majorities. He had 79 supporters to just 13 for Clinton in Precinct 2885. > > It was also a landslide in Precinct 1915, with 81 Obama supporters to just 23 votes for Clinton. In Precinct 2861, the count was 70-19, and in Precinct 1985, Obama swept by a 78-22 margin. > > “Rethink what you’re doing; do not make a choice based on the emotion of the moment,” argued a Clinton supporter in one precinct. > > The numbers were similar at Magnolia’s District 36, meeting at Catherine Blaine Elementary School. > > A crowd estimated at up to 900 people turned out, and at one point caucus-goers were lined up far outside the door to get in. In one of the larger precincts, a moderator asked how many participants were at their first caucus, and about 90 percent of the hands went up. > > In the district’s Precinct 1683, about 50 participants voted four to one for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/138 "2008-02-10T01:27:28Z")
CNN has Washington at 67% Obama, 32% Clinton. With 35% counted. Ouch… ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/139 "2008-02-10T01:32:18Z")
And they’ve called Nebraska; **Obama 69 / Clinton 31**. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/140 "2008-02-10T01:39:36Z")
Washington is called for Obama now, too. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=8)