# Factors in handicapping the democratic race to the White House post Super Tuesday. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 6, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510 "2008-02-06T14:05:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/161 "2008-02-10T13:50:26Z")
[QUOTE=Desert Nomad] Except Obama and the other pulled their names from the Michigan ballot (why didn’t Clinton?). If these delegates get seated as is, it will be a stolen election… but I guess that is normal in the US now. So much for democracy. [/QUOTE] It’ll be a sad day if that happens. To put it in a little more academic terms, it’ll be a Bullshit day if that happens. I’d support a do-over but not a simple seating… ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/162 "2008-02-10T15:27:17Z")
This just in. . . [ul][li][The Baltimore Sun endorses Barack Obama](http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/bal-ed.endorse10feb10,0,7419495.story). [/li][quote] When Marylanders vote in Tuesday’s presidential primary, both Democratic choices are promising a new political era for this century, and each has the intellect and the skills to deliver. Hillary Clinton, with her years in Washington and most recently in the Senate representing New York, brings rich experience. She is tough and keenly focused, pragmatic and driven. But Barack Obama, her Senate colleague from Illinois, offers a more compelling vision for the country that he would lead. He wants to forge a new reality in Washington where consensus replaces confrontation. And he has shown a remarkable ability to enroll a diverse array of Americans in his cause, convincing a new generation that it too has a stake in Washington. That’s why **The Sun strongly endorses Mr. Obama as the Democratic nominee for president**. [/quote] [/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/163 "2008-02-10T19:13:53Z")
Texas is getting on the O-train. . . [ul][\*][The San Antonio Express-News says: Obama better choice for Democratic nod](http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/editorials/stories/MYSA021008.02O.Obama2ed.23f14e3.html).[/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/164 "2008-02-10T20:56:23Z")
[Latest from Maryland and Virginia](http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/10/652929.aspx): > [@](#): > > Sunday, February 10, 2008 > > After last night’s contests, we now head into Chesapeake Tuesday, and two new Mason-Dixon polls show Obama with comfortable leads in Maryland and Virginia. > > In Maryland, it’s Obama 53%, Clinton, 35%. And in Virginia, it’s Obama 53%, Clinton 37%. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/165 "2008-02-10T21:05:39Z")
Early caucus returns from Maine, with 11% of precincts reporting: Obama 51%, Clinton 48% ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/166 "2008-02-10T21:23:21Z")
Anecdotal returns: > [@](#): > > By Bill 30 minutes ago > > Reporting in from York, Maine. Large turnout for the caucus. 260 last time and 671 this time. Start was delayed about 75 minutes for registering Independents and new voters. > > Votes: > 428 Obama > 236 Hillary > 7 Uncomitted > Delegates to the State Convention awarded > 32 Obama > 17 Clinton > > * * * > > By Mark L 25 minutes ago > > There were so many people there that instead of closing the doors at 1 they stopped the line at 2 and let them all in. There was a huge crowd. My precinct had 131 for Obama and 61 for Clinton. The other one had 220+ for Obama and 60+ for Clinton. Iam happy to see Fairfield held for Obama > [@](#): > > [http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/022070.html](http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/022070.html) > > **Obama takes Yarmouth, Cape; huge crowd at Portland caucus** > > CAPE ELIZABETH — Sen. Barack Obama cruised to an easy win in the Cape Elizabeth caucus on Saturday, defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton by a vote of **72 to 28 percent**. > > More than 680 people turned out to participate in the caucus, more than double the number of those that showed up in 2004, according to Jamie Wagner, the chairman of the Cape Elizabeth Democratic Committee. > > The large crowd delayed the start of the caucus by more than an hour. > > **Obama won by a final tally of 556 to 217**. That total includes the 94 Democrats who voted absentee. > > The Illinois senator also won in Yarmouth, defeating Clinton by a three-to-one margin. The final vote there was **484-139** , Obama. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/167 "2008-02-10T21:38:06Z")
Definitely a good weekend for Obama. Looks like the Hillary camp is starting to sweat, another shakeup today. The delegate totals are still confusing- RCP has 1123-1120 Clinton, MSNBC has 943-895 Obama, CNN has 1139-1106 Clinton. I think CNN is Clinton News Network- they persist in showing FL and MI as Clinton victories on their maps. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/168 "2008-02-10T22:02:43Z")
[Clinton is replacing her campaign manager.](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4269776&page=1) ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/169 "2008-02-10T22:31:42Z")
Latest numbers in Maine- 57%-42% in Obama’s favor, with 44% of the vote in. > **[Election Center 2008: Primary Results - Elections & Politics news from...](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#ME)** > > CNN.com delivers the latest election results by county for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. It’s a favorable look for Obama, especially with Maryland and Virginia up for grabs on Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/170 "2008-02-10T22:42:37Z")
Hm… the link didn’t work for me. But this one does: > **[Election Center 2008: Primary Results - Elections & Politics news from...](http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=ME)** > > CNN.com delivers the latest election results by county for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/171 "2008-02-10T23:00:40Z")
More numbers- still 57-42, still Obama, 59% of the vote in. Looks like a win… And even Hillary’s campaign has admitted that they won’t do well in Virginia, Maryland, or DC. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/172 "2008-02-10T23:05:25Z")
Yeah, they’ve decided to focus on the big states with a significantly larger number of delegates that are coming up later; Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Then, with whatever they can win there, use those numbers with the stolen MI and FL delegates and the beholden superdelegates to shove her candidacy down the throats of the DNC. She’ll fail. And I’m going to enjoy watching it happen. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/173 "2008-02-10T23:10:22Z")
Even speaking as a former Mainer – do you think it’s similar enough to New Hampshire that this can be seen as momentum shift, i.e., a few weeks later the tide has changed among the same pool of voters? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/174 "2008-02-10T23:13:11Z")
[QUOTE=cricetus] Even speaking as a former Mainer – do you think it’s similar enough to New Hampshire that this can be seen as momentum shift, i.e., a few weeks later the tide has changed among the same pool of voters? [/QUOTE] Absolutely, I’ve been on the phone with relatives in Bangor and they have felt a change in popular opinion in the last several weeks. All of them Mainers, all still live up theyah. Either way you stick it, it’s not looking very good for Hill - and of course, I’m with **Shayna** ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/175 "2008-02-10T23:20:17Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Yeah, they’ve decided to focus on the big states with a significantly larger number of delegates that are coming up later [/QUOTE] Worked for Giuliani 😃 ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/176 "2008-02-10T23:22:22Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] Worked for Giuliani 😃 [/QUOTE] Ouch. That’s painfully accurate. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/177 "2008-02-10T23:30:12Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] Worked for Giuliani 😃 [/QUOTE] Dare we hope it works as well for Clinton? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/178 "2008-02-10T23:51:57Z")
[QUOTE=cricetus] Even speaking as a former Mainer – do you think it’s similar enough to New Hampshire that this can be seen as momentum shift, i.e., a few weeks later the tide has changed among the same pool of voters? [/QUOTE] Is Maine a caucus a la Iowa, or is just an election run by the state? Obama does better in the former because his supporters are more enthusiastic even if less numerous, but the latter really would be indicative of a change in momentum. So would the former, really, it’s just easier to spin. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/179 "2008-02-10T23:54:28Z")
They are caucuses, and good point… although I wonder if you know how caucuses work? Because people DO vote, although much less formally, and therefor a victory indicates your supporters were also more numerous. You do not have more influence in a caucus because you are more enthusiastic. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2008, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510/180 "2008-02-10T23:55:16Z")
[QUOTE=Menocchio] Is Maine a caucus a la Iowa, or is just an election run by the state? Obama does better in the former because his supporters are more enthusiastic even if less numerous, but the latter really would be indicative of a change in momentum. So would the former, really, it’s just easier to spin. [/QUOTE] Maine is caucuses. Regardless of what type of election they have there has already been a change in momentum. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/factors-in-handicapping-the-democratic-race-to-the-white-house-post-super-tuesday/436510.md?page=10)