# Fall in crime linked to lead in petrol/gas ... **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 22, 2014, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674 "2014-04-22T13:05:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/1 "2014-04-22T13:05:33Z")
This issue is not going away, and I guess it’s because no one has yet come up with a comprehensive explanation as to why crime has been falling everywhere for 20 years or so. I guess we’re still talking about this because the correlation is tight, and consistent across different societies, social policies and timelines: > [@](#): > > Offending has fallen in nations whose governments have implemented completely different policies to their neighbours. > > If your nation locks up more criminals than the average, crime has fallen. If it locks up fewer… crime has fallen. Nobody seems to know for sure why. > > But there are some people that believe the removal of lead from petrol was a key factor. > > Lead can be absorbed into bones, teeth and blood. It causes kidney damage, inhibits body growth, causes abdominal pain, anaemia and can damage the nervous system Interesting graph on the US experience about 2/3 down the page: > **[Did removing lead from petrol spark a decline in crime?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615)** > > Many Western nations have experienced significant declines in crime in recent decades, but could the removal of lead from petrol explain that? The counterview is pretty compelling: > [@](#): > > But Roger Matthews, professor of criminology at the University of Kent, rejects that. He says biological criminologists completely miss the point. > > “I don’t see the link,” he says. "If this causes some sort of effect, why should those effects be criminal? > > "The things that push people into crime are very different kinds of phenomena, not in the nature of their brain tissue. " I guess he’s talking about poverty, life opportunities, etc > **[Did removing lead from petrol spark a decline in crime?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615)** > > Many Western nations have experienced significant declines in crime in recent decades, but could the removal of lead from petrol explain that? I notice also there’s a new scientific paper discussing high levels of lead in ancient Rome’s plumbing … Question: But for the cross-societal, cross-policy confirmation, you’d think the correlation a coincidence … what’s going on here? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/2 "2014-04-22T14:22:09Z")
The article seems to suggest a twenty year time lag between exposure to lead, and crime. Lead levels were almost at their lowest in 1970, and crime rates almost at their highest in 1990. It would also be interesting to know if criminals have higher levels of lead in their system than others. The correlation is interesting, but not compelling evidence of causality, as I think we agree. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/3 "2014-04-22T14:29:20Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The article seems to suggest a twenty year time lag between exposure to lead, and crime. Lead levels were almost at their lowest in 1970, and crime rates almost at their highest in 1990. It would also be interesting to know if criminals have higher levels of lead in their system than others. > > The correlation is interesting, but not compelling evidence of causality, as I think we agree. > > Regards, > Shodan Are we looking at the same graph? It pretty clearly shows that gasoline lead peaked around 1970 and violent crime peaked around 1990. When I read this study a while ago, I seem to recall that is showed that violent criminals tended to have grown up in envioronments that had higher levels of lead contamination; e.g. old building, or locations proximal to highways. I don’t recall if they tested individuals for lead. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/4 "2014-04-22T14:31:57Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > Are we looking at the same graph? It pretty clearly shows that gasoline lead peaked around 1970 and violent crime peaked around 1990. No, you are right. I misread the graph. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/5 "2014-04-22T14:40:42Z")
Previous thread discussing this: > **[Is the recent drop in violent crime due to banning lead in gasoline?](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=673972)** > > Noting that violent crime has dropped pretty much everywhere (in the world!) since the 90s, and this blog post suggests that the ban on leaded gasoline (by the EPA in the USA in the 70s and 80s, and most other countries by 2000) is perhaps the... ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/6 "2014-04-22T15:11:36Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > Previous thread discussing this: > > [Is the recent drop in violent crime due to banning lead in gasoline? - Great Debates - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=673972) Thanks for that, an interesting read. The timeline variations, and the high vs. low (lead) State, variations paint a pretty compelling picture. I also like the idea about decreased testosterone. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/7 "2014-04-22T15:12:14Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The article seems to suggest a twenty year time lag between exposure to lead, and crime. Lead levels were almost at their lowest in 1970, and crime rates almost at their highest in 1990. It would also be interesting to know if criminals have higher levels of lead in their system than others. Well if the theory is that higher lead exposures causes bad decision making, the criminals wouldn’t necessarily have higher lead in their systems; non-criminals may have made bad decisions in non-criminal ways. Maybe if someone also charted bankruptcy or teen pregnancy we should expect to see correlation as well? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/8 "2014-04-22T15:19:51Z")
I thought the book Freakonomics conclusively proved that the wider availability of abortion beginning in the 1970s caused the crime rate to start dropping roughly a generation later. (Yes, I’m exaggerating.) Isn’t there a lot of stuff we can correlate to the trend in crime? What about CFCs, for example? Or heavy metal hair bands from LA? ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/9 "2014-04-22T15:22:03Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I thought the book Freakonomics conclusively proved that the wider availability of abortion beginning in the 1970s caused the crime rate to start dropping roughly a generation later. (Yes, I’m exaggerating.) > > Isn’t there a lot of stuff we can correlate to the trend in crime? What about CFCs, for example? One reason the lead correlation is so interesting and compelling is that they looked at these rates in different countries. The correlation follows the same curve in countries that phased out lead at different times. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/10 "2014-04-22T15:26:56Z")
I would just like to point out that heavy metal hair bands from LA hit the scene in the US earlier, and it took some time for them to catch on in other countries – meaning that Motley Crue isn’t off the hook yet in my book. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/11 "2014-04-22T16:06:57Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > One reason the lead correlation is so interesting and compelling is that they looked at these rates in different countries. The correlation follows the same curve in countries that phased out lead at different times. and with quite different social policy ideas on policing and criminalising. I still like the falling testosterone idea: > [@](#): > > A man born in 1970 had about 20 percent less testosterone at age 35 than a man of his father’s generation at the same age. “When I saw another group reproducing our results,” says Travison, “that was convincing to me that we were seeing a true biological change over time, as opposed to just some measurement error.” > [@](#): > > For instance, 90 percent of American men have evidence of chlorpyrifos in their urine. > [@](#): > > Carbaryl is another possible culprit… [http://www.globalresearch.ca/health-and-the-environment-testosterone-levels-fall-worldwide/30129](http://www.globalresearch.ca/health-and-the-environment-testosterone-levels-fall-worldwide/30129) ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/12 "2014-04-22T17:17:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well if the theory is that higher lead exposures causes bad decision making, the criminals wouldn’t necessarily have higher lead in their systems; non-criminals may have made bad decisions in non-criminal ways. Maybe if someone also charted bankruptcy or teen pregnancy we should expect to see correlation as well? If you could separate out the other factors. Which would be just as difficult as for crime. I don’t know if it would be possible to separate out populations into bad-decision-makers and non-bad-decision-makers in general. But perhaps they could compare those who went bankrupt, with criminals, and see if they had matching lead levels, or damage from lead poisoning. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/13 "2014-04-22T17:17:40Z")
Low testosterone makes a man **more** likely to commit crimes?! I would’ve guessed the reverse, considering what “'roid rage” does. ---
**Author:** ![BrokenBriton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@BrokenBriton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrokenBriton)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/14 "2014-04-22T17:44:12Z")
I think you read it wrongly. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/15 "2014-04-22T18:25:32Z")
I thought the problem with a bunch of these explanations is that it doesn’t describe what actually happened. That it isn’t the case that a younger, non-violent generation grew up and displaced their violent elder statesmen. What happened is that _everyone_ stopped being so violent. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/16 "2014-04-22T18:55:48Z")
Here are a few more: Changing demographics - less kids between 15 and 23 - the crime years The availability of video games Crime displaced to the internet Changes in crime reporting, insurance policy terms Mass market electronics getting cheaper, less high value stuff to steal Better car security Here is one that is a bit off the wall: it is all due to our police getting better at catching criminals and our politicians passing laws to put more bad people in jail so they cant commit crime. Take your pick! My theory is that it is the rise of the Internet. What was street crime has now moved into social media and scams. Robbing a store has now become robbing someone on ebay. A lot of this crime is simply not recorded. Crime hasn’t gone away, it has simply moved. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/17 "2014-04-22T19:00:16Z")
I’m sure none of those things occurred to the researchers. You might want to write to them. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/18 "2014-04-22T19:45:29Z")
Many things have been suggested as leading to an increase or decrease in crime: > **[Correlates of crime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_and_correlates_of_crime)** > > The correlates of crime explore the associations of specific non-criminal factors with specific crimes. > The field of criminology studies the dynamics of crime. Most of these studies use correlational data; that is, they attempt to identify various factors are associated with specific categories of criminal behavior. Such correlational studies led to hypotheses about the causes of these crimes. > The Handbook of Crime Correlates (2009) is a systematic review of 5200 empirical studies on crime that... ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/19 "2014-04-22T20:56:54Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > Here are a few more: > > Changing demographics - less kids between 15 and 23 - the crime years > > The availability of video games > > Crime displaced to the internet > > Changes in crime reporting, insurance policy terms > > Mass market electronics getting cheaper, less high value stuff to steal > > Better car security > > Here is one that is a bit off the wall: it is all due to our police getting better at catching criminals and our politicians passing laws to put more bad people in jail so they cant commit crime. > > Take your pick! > > My theory is that it is the rise of the Internet. What was street crime has now moved into social media and scams. Robbing a store has now become robbing someone on ebay. A lot of this crime is simply not recorded. > > Crime hasn’t gone away, it has simply moved. The chart attached to that article was violent crimes. Only your first list item would have anything to do with that, I would think. And the story talked about this happening across different countries, so it doesn’t have to do with better police or longer sentences because both those vary from country to country. ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2014, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674/20 "2014-04-22T21:49:54Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > I thought the problem with a bunch of these explanations is that it doesn’t describe what actually happened. That it isn’t the case that a younger, non-violent generation grew up and displaced their violent elder statesmen. What happened is that _everyone_ stopped being so violent. Yeah, but I thought it was pretty well established that crime is a young man’s game. Old criminals are either dead, retired, or in jail. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fall-in-crime-linked-to-lead-in-petrol-gas/686674.md?page=2)