# Famous missed opportunities in history, or, hindsight is 20/20 **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 24, 2005, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827 "2005-04-24T02:33:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/21 "2005-04-25T14:10:00Z")
Sir Francis Drake futzing around instead of taking the capital of Spain. Truman not agreeing to help Ho Chi Minh win Vietnam’s independence from France. JFK not having the bubble top installed on his limo when he went to Dallas. The US not taking out Osama when it had the chance before 9/11. The US government ignoring the warning signs that AQ was planning an attack in September of 2001. The Japanese not making a second (or was it a third?) bombing run at Pearl Harbor, because they were worried about the US carriers showing up. The cops not arresting Jeffery Dahmer the first time they were called to his place. ---
**Author:** ![Agrippina](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8797f3/32.png) [@Agrippina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agrippina)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/22 "2005-04-25T14:17:25Z")
The _SS Californian_, only 15 miles away, turning off it’s wireless while the _Titanic_ sent out distress calls. ---
**Author:** ![AmericanMaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@AmericanMaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AmericanMaid)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2005, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/23 "2005-04-25T14:17:47Z")
The Versailles Treaty. It wasn’t a peace treaty, it was a revenge treaty that set the board for WWII. Wilson had the right idea. Too bad America didn’t support him. ---
**Author:** ![empty\_filing\_cabinet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7bcc69/32.png) [@empty\_filing\_cabinet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/empty_filing_cabinet)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/24 "2005-04-26T00:49:09Z")
1. Hannibal, choosing the indirect strategy of breaking the Roman empire through sustained pressure, rather than directly knocking over Rome on his initial roll through Italy. 2. Israel could have rescued the Muslim Bosnians from genocide when the effete Europeans flaked out. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/25 "2005-04-26T01:37:16Z")
Every country in Europe falling like dominos when the Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assasinated. ---
**Author:** ![cornflakes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9d8465/32.png) [@cornflakes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cornflakes)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/26 "2005-04-26T05:35:24Z")
> [@AmericanMaid](#): > > The Versailles Treaty. It wasn’t a peace treaty, it was a revenge treaty that set the board for WWII. Wilson had the right idea. Too bad America didn’t support him. Beat me to it. A less desperate Germany would not have turned to the Nazis. How about the failure of the West to act on the rift between the Soviet Union and China, and instead play out the Cold War with the attitude that “all Communists are the same”? ---
**Author:** ![GrizzRich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/7ba0ec/32.png) [@GrizzRich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrizzRich)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/27 "2005-04-26T05:45:33Z")
Sony not allowing Beta to be open-marketed. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/28 "2005-04-26T12:53:45Z")
The minor German official deciding to allow Lenin to cross German territory to get to Russia after the first Russian Revolution. No Lenin, no communism (the communists within Russia at the time were disorganized and confused). ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/29 "2005-04-26T13:08:06Z")
> [@Tuckerfan](#): > > The Japanese not making a second (or was it a third?) bombing run at Pearl Harbor, because they were worried about the US carriers showing up. Can you explain just what this would have done? The US fleet at Pearl was devastated. You can’t even use decimated, since not even 10% of the fleet was combat capable. ALL the BB’s were sunk. Even the Nevada, which was still combat capable. Smaller combatants were less devastated, but still in disarray. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/30 "2005-04-26T13:19:34Z")
> [@OtakuLoki](#): > > Can you explain just what this would have done? The US fleet at Pearl was devastated. You can’t even use decimated, since not even 10% of the fleet was combat capable. ALL the BB’s were sunk. Even the Nevada, which was still combat capable. Smaller combatants were less devastated, but still in disarray. But the surviving vessels were quickly repaired and put back in service, so the US didn’t have to rebuild it’s Pacific fleet from scratch. Had the entire fleet docked at Pearl been wiped out, it would have taken the US longer to engage the Japanese in the Pacific theater, thus allowing them to strenghten and expand their grip in the Pacific. As it was, the US took a terrible beating from the Japanese until the Battle of Midway, when we were finally able to gain the upper hand on them. Another missed opportunity was the Germans not assuming that the Enigma machine codes would be broken at some point, and continuing to use them throughout the war. The US and Britain also missed out on jet engine development, starting only after the German programs were well underway. Had the US and Britain understood the potential of the jet engine, they could have fielded jet planes during the war, and drove the Germans from the skies much sooner. Hitler not allowing the army to finish retreating Allied forces at Dunkirk. ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/31 "2005-04-26T13:24:48Z")
The thing that I disagree about is that since the key to Midway wasn’t the small combatants, but the carriers, there was no way that any number of attack runs at Pearl would have taken those out. Whether the US would have put the birdfarms to sea to save Midway without sufficient forces to cover them is a legetimate question, though I suspect that enough escorts could have been scrounged from the mainland bases to make the decision to stand at Midway basically unchanged. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/32 "2005-04-26T13:33:58Z")
> [@OtakuLoki](#): > > The thing that I disagree about is that since the key to Midway wasn’t the small combatants, but the carriers, there was no way that any number of attack runs at Pearl would have taken those out. Whether the US would have put the birdfarms to sea to save Midway without sufficient forces to cover them is a legetimate question, though I suspect that enough escorts could have been scrounged from the mainland bases to make the decision to stand at Midway basically unchanged. Right, Midway was the first (if not only) Naval battle where the combatant ships never saw one another, and the way I’ve always seen it discussed that if the entire fleet at Pearl (sans carriers, of course, since those were out to sea at the time of the attack) was lost, the US would have been screwed for a considerable period of time before they could go after the Japanese. I’m not familiar with what escort ships wold have been available at the mainland fleet to pull from, but given the edginess of America, immediately following the attack, I’d imagine that commanders would be reluctant to pull them so far away from the American mainland, in case the Japanese decided to attack there next (which was thought to be likely). The Pacific Theater also got only 15% of the US military production until Germany fell. FDR and the others feeling that Germany was a more serious threat than the Japanese were. So if the US had shifted more materiel to the Pacific theater to shore up the losses at Pearl, it would have hampered their efforts at going after Germany. This would have lengthened the war, possibly considerably, if Germany had had time to increase the number of advanced weapons at her disposal. That’s not to say that the Allies couldn’t have gone on to defeat the Axis powers, but it would have taken a lot longer and cost many more lives. ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/33 "2005-04-26T13:45:49Z")
Now we’re really going far off into ‘what-if’s.’ 😉 But, the press for a Japanese attack at Midway was in response to the Doolittle Raid, since the Japanese high command believed that the bombers had to have been launched from there. (Launching land-based bombers from carriers? Nahhhh) And I don’t know whether the raid would have happened or not without sufficient escorts. An interesting quandary. Personally, I’m going to base my gut reaction on Yamamoto’s thinking: He was pretty damned accurate, after all: “I’ll be able to run wild in the Pacific for six months,” is how what he’d said is usually translated, and since that was based on a comparison of industrial potential at least as much as military potential… \ On the OP’s topic, what might have happened had the Washington Treaty limiting BB’s and heavy combatants also included carriers? After all, one reason the Japanese had such a relatively large carrier fleet was because they decided to keep their started battle cruiser hulls as carriers, the one heavy combatant fleet element that wasn’t limited by the treaty. ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/34 "2005-04-26T13:49:19Z")
BTW, a neat and informative site about the Pacific War: [Nihon Kaigun](http://www.combinedfleet.com/kaigun.htm). ---
**Author:** ![TwoTrouts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a9adbd/32.png) [@TwoTrouts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TwoTrouts)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/35 "2005-04-26T14:13:33Z")
Missed opportunities: Both \*Tom Selleck \* and \*Nick Nolte \* turned down the role of _Indiana Jones_. ---
**Author:** ![wonderwench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/35a633/32.png) [@wonderwench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonderwench)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/36 "2005-04-26T14:18:38Z")
- The guy who sold DOS to Bill Gates is probably still kicking himself. - IBM not insisting on exclusivity rights for the distribution of DOS in the Microsoft licensing deal. - Apple not licensing its OS in the mid-80s. - Xerox Parc and the entire PC industry; just about every major innovation came out of the Parc, and Xerox punted on the commercial development. … - Christianity had the chance to develop healthy archetypes for male and female spirituality in the form of a man-wife relationship. Instead, the Church adopted a celibate son and a virgin mother. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/37 "2005-04-26T14:19:38Z")
> [@TwoTrouts](#): > > Missed opportunities: Both \*Tom Selleck \* and \*Nick Nolte \* turned down the role of _Indiana Jones_. And James Caan turned down the lead role in _Kramer vs. Kramer_, but the problem with mentioning an actor turning down a role in a film is that many times a film wouldn’t have _worked_ with a different actor in the role. ---
**Author:** ![SiXSwordS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/49beb7/32.png) [@SiXSwordS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SiXSwordS)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/38 "2005-04-26T14:24:48Z")
> [@Tuckerfan](#): > > Hitler not allowing the army to finish retreating Allied forces at Dunkirk. I’m guessing this could be an entire topic by itself. If the Union Army had pursued Robert E. Lee and the army of Northern Virginia after Gettysburg, the war might have ended much, much sooner. (1864 saw some of the bloodiest fighting of the war including important Confederate victories such as [cold harbor](http://americancivilwar.com/statepic/va/va062.html).) ---
**Author:** ![wonderwench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/35a633/32.png) [@wonderwench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonderwench)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/39 "2005-04-26T14:27:32Z")
- The GOP getting down and dirty in 1992 and exposing Clinton for the slimey, lying creep that he really is. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2005, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827/40 "2005-04-26T14:44:41Z")
On December 14, 1963 the Beatles Fan Club held a convention to make up for the unavailability of the sign on goodies. About 3,000 people turned up and although the 4 Beatles were happy to sign anything put in front of them most people turned up with nothing and merely shook hands with the Fab Four. An autographed copy of _Please Please Me_ or _With the Beatles_ sells for up to $80,000. Afterwards the moptops played for the 3,000 fans. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/famous-missed-opportunities-in-history-or-hindsight-is-20-20/300827.md?page=3)