# Favorability ratings.

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/favorability-ratings/746749>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [February 21, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/favorability-ratings/746749 "2016-02-21T23:24:36Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/favorability-ratings/746749/1 "2016-02-21T23:24:36Z")

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Data harvested from th[is old 538 article](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/) and HuffPo current ratings. Really just for considerations.

Early stage (Jan to June) favorability ratings with winner placed on top (Favorable/Unfavorable/net):

2012  
Obama 41/42/-1  
Romney 26/36/-11

2008  
Obama 43/28/+15  
McCain 35/30/+5

2004  
Bush 40/41/-1  
Kerry 28/27/+1

2000  
Bush 37/31/+6  
Gore 32/36/-4

1996  
Clinton 48/36/+12  
Dole 27/37/-10

1992  
Clinton 19/30/-11  
Bush 38/41/-3

1988  
Bush 34/35/-1  
Dukakis 34/18/+16

> [@Nate Silver](#):
>
> Overall, these early-stage favorability ratings have had a mixed track record as a predictor of election outcomes. The candidate with the better net-favorable rating in the early-going won the election in 1976, 1980, 1984, 1996, and 2008. But Mr. Clinton won the election in 1992, despite making a poor first impression on voters. On the flip side, Michael Dukakis had very promising favorability numbers early in the 1988 cycle, but they deteriorated over the course of the election cycle and he took a clear defeat.

HuffPo Current

Clinton 41/53/-8  
Sanders 50/38/+12

Trump 38/57/-19  
Cruz 36/47/-9  
Rubio 37/41/-4

The questions:

Imagining a Sander primary victory, do his numbers do a Dukakis and Kerry’s and crash under attack?

What direction do you expect everyone else numbers to go from here?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [February 22, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/favorability-ratings/746749/2 "2016-02-22T02:36:06Z")

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Wrong 538 link btw, in case anyone cares. Sorry. [Right one.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-romneys-favorability-ratings-matter/)

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**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\
**Post date:** [February 22, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/favorability-ratings/746749/3 "2016-02-22T15:15:35Z")

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Do you have any articles about favorability ratings from past primaries? That article is interesting, but it’s talking about favorability ratings in the general election, and it seems like things might be different in primaries. Look at Trump; he has a pretty good chance of being the nominee and he has the worst favorability rating of anyone right now.