# Fears vs. expectations: who’s gonna be President when all is said and done? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2020, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379 "2020-11-12T01:06:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/1 "2020-11-12T01:06:16Z")
This was brought up in one of the longer threads, but it was, of course, one small part of a much bigger whole, so I thought I’d separate out the question here. It seems a significant discussion to me, because there can be a lot of daylight between what you’re _afraid_ will happen and what you _actually think_ will happen. Please try to take the poll question in the spirit in which it was intended; I tried to figure out a wording that would cover any and all nitpicks and eventualities, and it’s like trying to outwit a genie. ETA, I made a small grammatical tweak to the poll, and it erased the two votes I saw. If you’ve already put your vote in, you might want to try again. _Poll ([view on site](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/1))_ ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/2 "2020-11-12T01:32:51Z")
1/31/20? Huh? That was ten months ago… ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/3 "2020-11-12T02:14:58Z")
💢 Okay, when I said to take the question in the spirit it was intended, I _really_ meant it! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/4 "2020-11-12T02:16:35Z")
Biden. Zero doubt. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/5 "2020-11-12T02:50:12Z")
I feel this kind of question hides the nuance though. Sure biden will be president, 100%. However, amid reports of firings at the CIA and Pentagon, and all these silly legal challenges, I’m still concerned there’s a small chance of an _attempt_ to ignore the election result. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/6 "2020-11-12T03:25:28Z")
Indeed, but that was my point: to compare possibility (which I fully acknowledge can cause damage to the country on their own) and end result. ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/7 "2020-11-12T03:29:52Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I feel this kind of question hides the nuance though. > Sure biden will be president, 100%. However, amid reports of firings at the CIA and Pentagon, and all these silly legal challenges, I’m still concerned there’s a small chance of an _attempt_ to ignore the election result. Trump can try to ignore the results, but he will officially be a trespasser in the White House past 12:00 noon on January 20, and a Biden spokesman has said that the government is capable of removing trespassers from the White House. Besides, I predict he will go to Mar-A-Lago over Christmas holidays and simply not return to the White House. He’ll be too embarrassed to show his face when the inauguration takes place. ---
**Author:** ![mikecurtis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mikecurtis/32/3284_2.png) [@mikecurtis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mikecurtis)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/8 "2020-11-12T03:48:52Z")
Are you really Michael Cohen? > **[Michael Cohen predicts Trump won’t return to White House after Christmas at...](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/525494-michael-cohen-predicts-trump-wont-return-to-white-house-after-christmas-at-mar/)** > > President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen predicts Trump will not return to the White House after spending Christmas at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.Cohen spoke with MSNBC host Ari Me… ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/9 "2020-11-12T04:02:18Z")
I’m not really sure what the point of the distinction is. My expectation is that Trump will go into overdrive with the corruption as much as he can in the remainder of his term, effectively leveraging the office to benefit parties who will, in turn, benefit and enrich him later on. Then he’ll pardon himself at the last minute. Isn’t that bad enought? ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/10 "2020-11-12T04:17:48Z")
Trump’s crack(ed) legal team will have a few more attempted lawsuits alleging voter fraud swatted down in the courts, selection of electors will go off as scheduled, and that will be that. I’d frankly love to see Trump forcibly evicted from the White House. It’ll make a fabulous coda to the inevitable movie. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/11 "2020-11-12T04:19:10Z")
> [@cochrane](#): > > Trump can try to ignore the results, but he will officially be a trespasser in the White House My concern is the possibility of not _only_ Trump ignoring the results. I can take some solace from the fact that even most Trump allies are treating him like a crazy uncle at this point. Humoring him, and still being respectful, but not explicitly supporting anything he’s saying. ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/12 "2020-11-12T04:31:38Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > Then he’ll pardon himself at the last minute. Isn’t that bad enought? He can’t pardon himself against state charges such as he might face in New York. The President’s pardon powers only cover federal crimes. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/13 "2020-11-12T04:41:24Z")
> [@](#): > > Who will wield executive power in the United States? Whoever the Lady in the Lake throws the sword to. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/14 "2020-11-12T05:23:30Z")
If Trump didn’t have enough popular support to win his re-election legally, how is he going to find enough popular support to seize power illegally? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/15 "2020-11-12T06:03:39Z")
It doesn’t work like that. You don’t need popular support to seize power, just the support of certain key figures. Let me be absolutely clear: I’m 95% sure such an attempt **won’t** happen. And I’m 99.9% sure if it did happen, it would fail horribly and immediately. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/16 "2020-11-12T07:05:10Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > It doesn’t work like that. You don’t need popular support to seize power, just the support of certain key figures. I disagree. If you’re trying to seize power illegally, people are going to try to stop you. And ultimately, it comes down to a question of who can bring more firepower. And while Second Amendment types like to claim they can overthrow the government, they wouldn’t be able to stand up against real military forces. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/17 "2020-11-12T07:46:51Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > If you’re trying to seize power illegally, people are going to try to stop you. And ultimately, it comes down to a question of who can bring more firepower. And while Second Amendment types like to claim they can overthrow the government, they wouldn’t be able to stand up against real military forces. Firstly, I have said repeatedly that I don’t think that an attempted coup could be successful in the US. When I said 99.9% chance of failing “horribly and immediately”, the remaining 0.1% is just the chance that it still fails but takes some time. Note that I put the chance of Biden being president at 100%. Once again: **I also think** **a coup would not be successful**. But secondly, what I was correcting was your point that you need popular support to seize power. Perhaps this was just a bad choice of words? Because _seize_ power itself implies “non-democratic”. If your point is just that you need sufficient _crazy mob_ support, which is a separate thing to support in an election, then I would argue Trump has it. Easily 20-25% of the country would be happy to see Trump illegally stay on; heck, I think CNN said that 70% of Republican voters apparently believe that the election was fraudulent. From looking at examples around the world, 20% is plenty of crazy populace support. The more important support is of the military and the treasury anyway. There’s no way Trump is going to get that, and that’s why, in the crazy hypothetical where this all happens, it would fail. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/18 "2020-11-12T08:00:34Z")
If Trump has 20% of the people on his side then he has 80% of the people on the other side. And in a fight between 20% and 80%, the 20% loses. If this was 2024 and Trump was coming to the end of his second term but the majority of people wanted him to stay in office, then he might be in a position to say, “Screw that 22nd Amendment. I’m going to stay President.” ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 8:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/19 "2020-11-12T08:14:20Z")
I could not have been more clear. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2020, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379/20 "2020-11-12T08:37:49Z")
If the military, the justice department, the secret service, the courts, the Congress, etc. all recognize Biden as president, then Trump will have no power. And that’s exactly what I expect to happen. I’d worry if Trump had managed to secure personal loyalty from those he would need to back a coup. He hasn’t. In fact, many of them despise him and will be happy to see him gone. And military leaders have made it clear that they won’t get involved in politics. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fears-vs-expectations-who-s-gonna-be-president-when-all-is-said-and-done/925379.md?page=2)