Feasability of Interstellar Travel

Riboflavin:

To back up a ways, thanks for showing some actual numbers to back up your previous statements. I am well aware of the physics of space travel, that is to say, the frictionless environment, etc. Perhaps I would have been more clear if I said that if you were to use the Shuttle, the fastest manned craft we have, and tried to go to AC, it would take a long time. One last caveat: I neglected to mention that I repeated this from a Discovery show on this subject, one that discussed most of the methods described in this thread- the Orion nuclear drive, light sail, and ramscoop at least. Pretty lame, I admit, to throw something like that out without more backing. However, for what it’s worth, the show came basic conclusions: it’s a long ways off. I’m still not fully convinced that we could do it that quick. Perhaps I’ll find some time to crunch the numbers.

Scylla:

Humans have throughout time reached barriers to resources because of a lack of technology. We either figured out a better way to get the resources we need, or found a replacement. I don’t recall at the moment the author, but I’ll do some digging and find out. This topic deserves it’s own thread, I believe, and so I will start it.

-Dave


It’s not how you pick your nose, it’s where you put the boogers

What follows is what I came up with while I was reading the previous two threads. Some of it is a repeat of what has already been said, but I thought of it before I read it so it counts.

Boris B:

This was actually a big arguement during the formulation of our current rocket technology, but a simple application of the fundamental laws of physics will suffice. For every reaction there is an equal and opposite reaction. Therefore, the space shuttle moves at constant acceleration and increasing velocity all the way out of the atmosphere and in space. Think of it like this, as the space shuttle moves forward its motive force, fuel and engines, moves in step - it does not move relative to the space shuttle and nothing has changed from that perspective. Who’s confused?

Riboflavin:
I believe we are roughly on the same page with that whole calculation thing except where you refer to a return trip. That just won’t be done.

Atrael:

No, it’s not looking good for fission/fusion technologies to take us anywhere.
Fission/fusion would be a far better answer that our current liquid/solid fuel thrust technologies due to the available energy density. I’ve not been to Astronomics 8.01, but the fission/fusion (which incidentally release about the same amount of energy as far as I know - it’s all E = m c^2 stuff) of a couple atoms of hydrogen yields astronomically much more energy per gram than that produced by the burning of hydrogen. However, whatever is finally used will undoubtedly include at least a couple of sling-shots around the sun.

Scylla: At what distance are binary stars called binary stars? Wouldn’t a binary star have to be much closer to the Sun to be called that? I’ve really got no idea.

Jab1:

What do you mean may be? I AM a cosmic force.

There are several technologies which have been developed or are under earnest research that will contribute greatly to humankind’s exploration of the universe. Firstly off the top of my head is the idea of negative energy. I’m not even going to pretend I understand it (and I know a lot of stuff, just read the steak thread), but you can read all about it in the January 00 issue of Scientific American. In summary it describes how it is possible to created artificial worm holes and/or “warp” technology. Unfortunately, with what they (certainly not me) understand about it, these phenomena would require more energy than is contained in all of the universe. Oh well, at least they’re working on it. Previously Scientific American, in one of their quarterly dedicated issues, focused quite a bit of discussion on space technology. From this we learn that there is some guy who attempting to build a 1-mile wide sail out of ionized plasma. In some such way, this sail will be able to take advantage of the solar wind, the stream of our sun’s ejecta. This sail has many benefits over the traditional idea of sail namely much less mass and it will be immune to holes made by space dust. Thirdly, noone is discussing the use of a-bombs any more. The discussion has moved on to the the use of actual, living, breathing anti-matter. Further: On the Discovery Channel we learn that a realistic expectation of reaching Alpha Centauri is something along the line of 100 years. 100 years for the passengers and longer for their relatives/descendants left on the Earth. I don’t know what the conversion would be, but I know that they’ve already tested the phenomena of time distortion by flying an atomic clock around the world on a jet (not very fast relatively/relativisticly speaking). When the clock was returned to the starting point it was compared to its sister clock and found to be off. For a watch that is supposed to lose one second every million years (something like that) any difference is significant.

My thoughts on extraterrestrial life: Yes, there is life outside of our solar system. Does it look like us? Superficially no, but it’s body chemistry will undoubtedly be based on the properties of either water at temperatures we are used to or based on liquid methane a few degrees kelvin.

Has anyone read the Rama series by Arthur C. Clark?

I keep hoping the guys at CERN are going to develop anti-grav technology. It’d be a cinch to get anywhere after that.

To further the conversation, what does anyone know about the X-33 or X-34 projects? It currently costs $20,000 to launch 1 kilogram into geostationary orbit. The X-3x programs promise to bring that figure down to $2,000 in the VERY near future and maybe within’ 5 years. Matter of fact, there’s a company that is already selling tickets for space rides. Who would move to the Moon or Mars if given the opportunity? Once it is less cost-prohibitive to actually launch equipment into space the whole industry of asteroid mining is poised to actually MAKE MONEY IN SPACE. Then, of course, there’s these guys at P.E.R.M.A.N.E.N.T.


Snap into a slim jim!!!

Scylla,

So your only reason for saying that we should colonize Mars now is that future generations would possibly look back and wonder why we didn’t? But what you write assumes that the ‘future generations’ are as interested in space travel as you are; perhaps what they’ll do is look back and remember us as the generation that could have made the first fully immersive virtual world and chose to waste time going to rocks instead.

Unless you can come up with a reason why these future generations will be so space-obsessed that they see a man landing on the Mars as the only worthwhile achievement we could have made, you may as well spend your money on pyramids and hope they’re impressed by that.

While NASA likes to spin up all of the things that come from spin-offs, advances in microelectronics were going on before the Apollo program and continued to occur after it. Claiming that the trip to the moon is responsible for the computer age is simply silly and completely unfounded in fact.

Actually, history hasn’t taught us that at all. What frontiers were the US and Western Europe expanding into during the 20th century, the period of greatest prosperity and scientific advance in human history?

If a frontier society is such a strong motivator for innovation, why is the rate of innovation so much higher in non-frontier areas like the US and Western Europe than the rest of the world? Why have the great advances in science come from large cities and not frontier towns?

While the resources of the Earth are finite, it’s not like they’re just about to run out. Even if we run out of new ore to mine and new oil wells to dig, we can recycle the vast quantities of natural resources already extracted for quite some time before the small amount lost through such processes catches up with us. Recycling is a lot cheaper than bringing things to Earth from orbit.

Which has no bearing on why we need to go to Mars now. If that statement is so true, we’d be better off improving our technology for going into space rather than making one-shot Apollo-style missions that do nothing for a sustained presence in space.

Comparing the dollar value of one thing to other projects doesn’t magically make that one thing worthwhile. The question is not ‘could we spend $6 billion on this’, it’s ‘is spending $6 billion to make a visit to Mars the best use of the resources allocated to the space program.’ An investment in cheaper ground to orbit travel and self-sustaining space habitatis is, IMO a much better investment than a joyride to Mars.

Of course, Columbus could make a case that his voyage would produce great economic benefits, and in fact it did. You have been unable to make the same case for landing on Mars.

If you’re worried about what the US in the 21st century will be remembered for, you’ve got another 100 years before the deadline is up.

This question doesn’t even make a bit of sense. We can afford not to do it by simply not doing it; it’s not like it prevents any big disaster or provides us with any long-term benefit.


Kevin Allegood,

“At least one could get something through Trotsky’s skull.”

  • Joseph Michael Bay

Scylla,

Please provide an example of humans using up all of their resources. What actually happens is that collecting a given resource gets too expensive, which motivates people to either use an alternate resource or recycle the one they used before. It’s not like making a sword means that the iron involved can never be used for any other purpose ever again. Even with something we consume like oil, synthetic oil will be cost-competitive with natural oil when natural oil hits a price of ~$50/barrel, which will happen long before we’ve run out of oil.

Stuff in the asteroid belt, to say nothing of the gas giants, is hardly cheap when you factor in shipping costs. Unless you get a magical free drive for transporting the stuff, it will generally be cheaper to recycle things on Earth than to go cavorting around the solar system for the resources you need.


Kevin Allegood,

“At least one could get something through Trotsky’s skull.”

  • Joseph Michael Bay

Scylla,

Who is the person besides Zor? I only said that a gravitational slingshot couldn’t give you an appreceable fraction of the .43c we were talking about, not that gravitational slingshotting is completely useless.

You keep repeating this, but it is OBVIOUSLY untrue. While you can get those kinds of increases from a relatively slow start, once you achieve higher speeds you have to get closer and closer to the body in question for the same factor of speed gain, which means that at some point to get your ‘hundredfold increase’ you’d have to pass within the surface of the sun which, aside from vaporizing your spacecraft, means the gravitational field starts getting weaker since some of the sun’s mass is outside of your craft.

And, of course, there’s the simple fact that if you start off at .01c, it is completely beyond the bounds of physical possability to increase your velocity 100-fold.

I thought you earlier said that this would require an 18g burn? Also, given your tendancy to misremember things from books (such as claiming that Sagan supported your contention that a 10-year trip was possible), please quote us exactly what the book says on the topic. I’m interested both in how close of an approach is required and how much fuel you have to burn; maintaining 1g acceleration for even a month’s time means that you’re burning quite a bit of fuel. That combined with the fact that you’ve still got to have .1c worth of deltavee for the trip still means that you’ve got to have an outrageous amount of fuel in the ship, even with a perfectly efficient Orion drive .1c of fuel requires 50 times as much fuel mass as ship mass, and an orion drive is far from 100% efficient.

Does this table also mention how close of an approach is required for slingshotting? How close of an approach do you have to make to get the .05c figure?

.05c gets you to AC in 86 years. You still need quite a bit more acceleration to make the trip in 50 years.

Right; while light sail trips are practical (your time figure is right for a 100% efficient setup, but in actual practice you’d need a far longer burn or stronger laser at both ends to get around the various losses), they require an enourmous power generation setup, something which we don’t have right now.


Kevin Allegood,

“At least one could get something through Trotsky’s skull.”

  • Joseph Michael Bay

Zor,

Your dismissal of different drive types as having ‘no practical effect at all’ begs the question of what constitutes a practical effect? If a 100 year trip is an acceptable trip, you can get to the nearest stars fairly easily with any of these methods. If you’re sending a self-sustaining habitat, people in deep freeze, or long-lived people(amazing what advanced medicine will do for you) then long mission times are perfectly acceptable.

Pushing a rocket to the moon with chemical fuels is also like pushing a car to the moon with a fire hose, you just use a much stronger hose.

I don’t know exaclty how big a ‘gazillion’ is, but we’ve built kilowatt lasers and the laser Scylla described is only terrawatt sized, meaning we’d only need to build a laser a million times more powerful than that. The only real problem with constructing a laser of that size is having a power supply for it, which is an infrastructure problem and not an engineering or fundamental science problem.

Focusing a laser over long distances is not an incredibly difficult engineering problem. It’s a lot simpler than containing a ton of antimatter or magically using ZPE for fuel, both of which you talk about like they’re just around the corner.

Where are you getting this number from? A perfectly efficient 10 ton antimatter-powered rocket would need 5 tons of fuel (50%matter/50% antimatter) to make the trip, and there’s no way you’re going to get better than 100% efficiency.

You’re forgetting that you also have to accelerate your fuel. A 25% efficient 10-ton antimatter rocket would actually require 38 tons of fuel for the trip, and that’s using the nonrelativistic rocket equation.

Did the same person write your entire post? Earlier you implied that building lasers a million times as powerful as those used today was a pipe dream, yet now you’re claiming that it’s no problem to store something like 10^23 times as much antimatter as we do now. Currently, we store a few atoms of antimatter, not a few tons.

Your response is very strange to me; you dismiss lasers as worthless because we’d have to scale them up, yet you claim that drives carting around tons of antimatter (which is a much bigger scaling up) are more sensible, and then further this by talking about getting energy by ZPE. Your definition of ‘reasonable’ seems, well, unreasonable.

This one partly at you, partly at everyone else:

these are all interesting theoretical constructs that currently don’t appear to be possible and, if they were possible, wouldn’t be buildable by our engineering methods anytime in the next few centuries. The actual forms of these things in theory is also generally useless for space travel.

The Alcuberrie warp drive requires more energy than the mass-energy of the entire universe and can’t be started or stopped. Wormholes are microscopic and require negative matter (which does not appear to exist) to prop open to a large scale, and would be disrupted by a ship passing through. ZPE is just another one of those neat theories that’s in the popular press now, and will be forgotten about in a few years. ‘Space Folding’ is just pure technobabble.


Kevin Allegood,

“At least one could get something through Trotsky’s skull.”

  • Joseph Michael Bay

Riboflavin:

Allow to take a few liberties in the hopes of advancing the discussion.

  1. Concerning the gravitational slingshot: We’re starting to go over the same ground again. The slingshot I described takes you “well inside the orbit of Mercury,” whatever that means. The screaming dive towards the sun at 1g is to gain momentum. As you approach the sun closely angular momentum pulls you along and your “orbit” describes a parabola, subjecting your ship to somewhere around 18 gees, depending on how close, how fast, etcetera.

  2. Besides this point we seem to be pretty much in agreement concerning technology and timing. We agree 100% on the light sail, and are close enough on an Orion type ship that I don’t care to pursue it any further. Orion would basically take a lifetime. Cool?

Let’s talk about Mars:

I think you make my points for me. Create a virtual world? Why, so we can play Quake3?
How is that better than Mars?

I don’t want to suggest we go to Mars so that future generations think we’re cool. I point out how stupid they might think we were for not going.

You asked for examples where man uses up his resources. How about Lumber in England? How about Mayan slash and burn agriculture which basically wiped out that civilization? How about Buffalo? Rainforests, overfishing, etc. etc. and these are just "renewable " resources.

I think you agree that at some point in the near future we are going to start having problems with nonrenewable resources, like fossil fuels and metals. I agree that recycling and synthetics will slow down our wasting thereof, but I think your estimates to it’s efficiency in the face of our society’s exponentially growing consumption are somewhat naive.

As I mentioned, you make my point for me. History does teach us about exploration and subsequent golden ages. Europe was at the vanguard of technological development and wealth during the imperial era, and those same countries became second rate powers when their expansion ceased. One could argue that they’ve been in decline since. Surely you’ll agree that the British Empire is just a shadow of it’s former self?

The frontier here in the U.S. led to the real propagation of the industrial age. Did you think a transcontinental railroad was easy to do? It was laughed at as impractical and unnecessary, but clearly that technology helped found the industrial age, and the great wealth of the US, by making transportation cheap.

Mars Direct is not a one shot glory trip. It is the founding of a continuing foothold for mankind on another planet.

We need this technology to continue mankind’s expansion, and to fuel his need for more and more natural resources.

We also need it to get all of the human races eggs out of one basket. Perhaps we may destroy ourselves with Nuclear War or disease, or go the way of the Dinosaurs if another huge asteroid hits. It would be nice to have a start elsewhere.

Mars, unlike the moon has resources that can eventually be exploited to make a base there self-sufficient. Pursuing the goal will lead us to cheaper and cheaper forms of spaceflight, and perhaps put the wealth of the asteroids within reach.

You mention that that money should be used for space habitats. If you refer to the International space station let me tell you that that’s a joke of waste and inneficiency.

Skylab had more space than the space station will when completed. It’s basically a makework task for the space shuttle, and will ultimately cost more than the proposed mars direct program when and if it’s ever finished.

If you don’t think that our lunar program paid great dividends in the form of miniturization, electronics,computers, medicine, and aviation than I have to say that you’re being both unfair and unrealistic.

Lastly, we should go for the glory of doing it. Why not? Why build a Cathedral? Why circumnavigate the globe? why cross the Atlantic by airplane nonstop? These things prove technology and show mankind and his achievements at their finest.


Often wrong… NEVER in doubt

Riboflavin, you’re really confusing me now. First you talk about how a gravitational slingshot cannot supply any significant fraction of the speeds we’re aiming for, and then you turn around and blast me for basically saying the same thing? :confused:

:::scratches head:::

At the risk of sounding arrogant, I really have to ask you, do you understand the scale of the problems we face? Let’s toss the gravitational slingshot idea out of the picture for a second (which I think we agree on), and consider fusion first. The mass of fusion propellant required to send a school bus pass Proxima Centauri, not even slowing it down, is 100 billion kilograms (see NASA BPP lab site), and even that will still take 900 years. So does that fall within the widest definition of “practical”? Nope, I don’t think so.

Now let’s consider light sails next. Again, the scale will blow you off the charts. Scylla mentioned a terrawatt laser, and perhaps it’s my fault to not have discredited him right there. You see, the super high power lasers you hear of today operate in extremely short pulses, and you should know that the unit of watt is joules over second. If your terrawatt laser operates with a nanosecond pulse, then it’s basically putting out as much power as a kilowatt continuous wave laser.

The truth is it’s physically and theoretically (with what we know today) impossible to construct a continuous wave laser that even operates in the terrawatt range. Notice that I use the word “even”, because the light sail proposals we have require 10,000 terrawatts :eek: of continuous power, and just one terrawatt is enough to supply all the power the world is consuming today (hence the offhand use of gazillion). Yes, there are other proposals that only consume 10 gigawatts of microwave, but even that is way beyond the scope of an * engineering problem *, not to mention the corresponding spacecraft is spread across a kilometer and only weighs 16 grams.

Now we can move on to the focusing of our laser, which you dismiss as “not an incredibly difficult engineering problem”. Again, please take another look at the scale of the problem. The Fresnel lens required for the lasers I mentioned above is at least 1000 kilometers in diameter. The first one also requires a 1000 kilometer target too (i.e. your light sail). Pardon me, but antimatter is much easier in comparison, and it is one place where the scale up problem is not as impossible as it seems. For your information, the reason why scientists aren’t focusing on the mass production of anti-matter is because the few atoms we have today are more than enough for research purposes. The scale is not as hard to climb as any fusion drive or light sail, though it’s true neither will get any budget from congress for sure.

Okay, on to ZPE now. I fully agree that we’ll probably never use warp drives, worm holes, or space folding for space travel. As for ZPE being “another one of those neat theories that’s in the popular press now”, that, I cannot agree. I have openly stated earlier that ZPE is on the fringe of sci-fi, however, it is certainly not something that’s totally imaginary. If you read my post, you’ll see that I am not looking at ZPE as an infinite power source. Studies in ZPE could lead to new revelations about the nature of inertia and gravity, which contrary to popular conception, we basically don’t know jack about. A breakthrough in our understanding of inertia and gravity could alter our approach to space travel altogether.

Finally, I must point out that you have made a fundamental mistake in applying any rocket equation to antimatter drives. To my benefit, that allows me to throw the results of all your calculations out the window :smiley: Hello? Exactly what fuel are you accelerating? Does that ring a bell?

I’m sorry for this post to come through with so much fire on it. It just really gets on my nerves when you not only shoot down my entire post but me as well. Please don’t take this personally, because some of this is for Scylla and his Orion spacecraft and light sails as well :smiley:

Alright, take your shots now :slight_smile:

I said that a gravitational slingshot would not provide a significant fraction of the .43c required for a 10 year trip to AC and disputed Scylla’s figure of .05c. I did not, however, claim that gravitational slingshotting was useless contrary to what you’re saying. Whether some propulsion method is ‘useful’ for a trip depends on how long of a trip one is talking about, and I mentioned this in my previous post. Are you talking about a 10 year trip, 50 year trip, 100 year trip, 1000 year trip, or what? Before you can dismiss a method of propulsion as useless, you must first determine how long of a trip you want to take.

Please provide a link if you want me to look at a particular site; it’s far too easy for me to search and find a different site and end up arguing over which site we’re talking about rather than the issue at hand. I suspect that the NASA fusion engine being discussed is far from an optimal drive; if you’re talking about perfectly efficient matter/antimatter engines then we can certainly talk about perfectly efficient fusion engines.

I’m quite aware of the scale, thanks again.

Yes, which is why neither Scylla or I were talking about a nanosecond-pulse terrawatt laser. In my previous post I mentioned specifically that we’re talking about a laser roughly a million times more powerful than the ones made today, so I don’t see any reason for you to go into the basic physics lecture above.

Please tell me exactly which laws of physics make a terrawatt laser theoretically impossible. I will be rather impressed if you are able to do so. And I never claimed that terrawat lasers were something that could be built today, so your comment about them not being buildable today is a nonsequitor.

Since Scylla and I both mentioned that this laser would be consuming 3-6 times the current power output of all of the power plants on Earth, I don’t see why you’re saying it again and acting like you’re stating new information.

So you’re saying that the curent power output of the earth is way beyond the scope of an engineering problem, yet you’re saying that producing tons of antimatter when we produce single atoms today is trivial.

It’s especially interesting since your antimatter powered ship will be using far more energy than the total output of Earth’s power plants, yet you think that IS within the scope of an engineering problem. Even more interesting, you think that a project that takes some 10^1 times the Earth’s current power output is laughably silly, yet one that will take 10^23 times the Earth’s current production of antimatter is completely feasable.

When you don’t have gravity or atmospheric friction to worry about and you don’t need a continuous sheet, it’s pretty easy to make the mass phenomenally small. Much easier than scaling up antimatter production by a factor of 10^23.

In case you were unaware of this, you don’t have to make a continuous lens to focus a laser. The effective diameter of the lens has to be large, but that doesn’t mean that you need a gigantic piece of glass to do it. The problems of constructing such a lens are rather trivial compared with those required to scale up antimatter production by a factor of 10^23.

Pardon me, but you’re wrong. Large structures are fairly easy to build when you don’t have an atmosphere or gravity to contend with.

Whether scientists are focusing on antimatter production or not, moving from producing single atoms to producing tons is not a simple matter. If you think something as easy as building a kilometer-wide sail is difficult, why do you think that increasing our production of antmatter by something like 10^23 times is trivial?

According to you. I think that scaling up by a factor of 10^23 (current-needed levels of antimatter production) is a little bit harder to manage that scaling up by a factor of 10^3 (moving from a meter-sized sail to a kilometer sized one).

A breakthrough in any one of many areas could potentially change the practicalities of space travel, but I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for cold fusion or ZPE to completely alter our understanding of the way the world works.

Scylla,

I agree, let’s stop debating the finer points of propulsion mechanisms; we have some minor quibbles over some exact numbers but basically agree.

We should build it for the glory of building it. Why not? These things prove technology and show mankind and his achievements at their finest. Sound familiar? It’s a rephrasing of your last paragraph.

And the reason for creating a virtual world is so that people can experience things that they never could in the course of their lives. I somehow think that future generations would appreciate a technology that lets every single one of them walk on Mars a bit more than one that lets them remember that some other people walked on Mars a few generations ago.

So it’s you’re opinion that they’ll think that we’re stupid for not doing something that you can’t give any real reason for doing? Personally, I think that if future generations do consider space travel highly important, they’ll look back on propaganda exercises like the Apollo program and wonder why we wasted effort getting a man to the moon and then leaving rather than building a real infrastructure for future space development.

It backs up my point; lumber in England was used up when it was cheaper to use that lumber than import it, but the Brits never came close to wiping out all of the lumber in their empire. After that experience, they began using modern lumber harvesting techniques, replanting new wood to replace the old.

Unless I’m badly misremembering history, it was the Spanish and the diseases they brought along with them that basically wiped out that civilization. Various groups at various times in history used slash and burn africulture when they could easily move around, then switched to more sustainable forms of agriculture when it became too expensive to keep running away from burnt areas.

One specific species qualifies as a resource? What did we get from Buffalo that we don’t get from other animals?

Last I checked, we still have rainforests.

Last I checked, there are still many fish in the sea. When a given area gets fished out, people begin fishing in other areas until the fish population in that area recovers.

And we’re not out of any of them, so I guess it proves my point. Also, I’d be interested in an explanation of how asteroid mining is going to help us in getting agricultural products, rainforests, or fish.

Define ‘problems’. It’s not like we’re going to run out of them, and recycling is not all that difficult. When oil gets expensive enough, people will ditch gas cars in favor of some other power system. When steel gets expensive enough, people will either recycle steel or use alternate materials.

Out society does not have exponentially growing consumption of resources. The US actually uses less raw materials per capita now than in the past, and as other countries move towards the technological level of the US, their resource consumption will follow the same pattern. Since the population is not growing exponentially (contrary to the factless propaganda of ZPG and other fruitcake groups), and is expected to either level off or even begin to decline within the next 50 years or so, I don’t really see how resource usage can be growing exponentially.

Which had more to do with the easy availability of resources from exploration, something which interstellar travel or landing a guy on Mars doesn’t give us.

What exactly is meant by ‘second rate powers’? All of Western Europe is richer and more technologically advanced than they were back in the ‘good ol days’ of Empire.

Only if your only criteria for how good a nation is is how much land area it controls. Britain enjoys more technological advancement, higher standards of living, and is more secure from war than she ever was during the colonial era. Even if we factor in the whole area once covered by the British empire, it’s still more technologically advanced, more wealthy, and has a population with a higher standard of living than any previous period.

Ummm… and when the idustrial age was propgated to an area, that area ceased to be a frontier. You’ve also neglected to explain how in the Early 20th century the US became the wealthiest, most technologically advanced, and most militarily powerful nation in the world while not adding new lands. In fact, during the early 20th century, the US divested herself of many of her colonies and refused to expand into areas her armies controlled during WW1 & WW2.

It is a one-shot glory trip. The base established will not be self-sustaining, and will require almost all of its supplies to be ferried over from Earth.

You have not demonstrated that this mission is the best, or even a very good way, of achieving that goal.

A base which is not self-sustaining will die off

Riboflavin:

I must learn how to use that quote thing properly.

It occurs to me that your basic argument here is that there are better things to do with the 7 billion than send a person to Mars. Correct?

Since you didn’t comment on my thoughts concerning the International Space Station, is it safe to assume that you agree that it’s a white elephant too?

If so, here’s the deal. I’ll take 10 billion and do a couple of trips to Mars. You know get the base set up, and stuff. You can have the other 10 billion and create a virtual world. Ok?

We’ll see who gets the girls :slight_smile:

Seriously, am I to believe you think the space station is a better idea than Mars?

In all fairness to you, I think your starting to split hairs. You have proven yourself to be intelligent and thoughtful in your responses. Did you honestly think that I was referring to the standard of living when I said that The British Emire had been in decline since the end of its expansionist phase? I think you know what I mean. We are talking about land yes, and economics, and military power.

I agree that artificial hearts and computer chips did not spring forth whole from the brow of the lunar program like Athena from Zeus. Clearly the lunar program helped. The way basic science works is somebody investigates or invents something and somebody else does something new with it. But you knew that.

When NASA invented the avionics and falesafe systems for the Apollo they weren’t thinking about airline safety. Rather, a former Nasa employee working for Boeing realized that some of the technology might have other applications (which of course is why Boeing hired him.) If you are going to argue that the space program didn’t advance sciences and new technologies to a large degree we might as well quit now.

Actually humanities use of resources and energy has been expanding exponentially for the past two centuries. The fact that we have not yet run out of certain resources is a moot argument. If you are in a lifeboat and you have 5 days of water, does this mean that on day 3 you don’t have a problem lurking?

I’m going to interpret that you mean that mankind will cycle through his use of resources, in much the same way that the exponential increase in coal usage suddenly dropped off with the onset of fuel oil about 80 years ago. Is this what you mean? If so, you have a valid point. I believe that there is a law of diminishing returns once our civilization reaches a certain a point though. Recycling can only take you so far if it’s not 100% efficient, and I don’t think it ever can be. There comes a time, especially if you posit fusion as an eventual alternative to fossil fuels when we will need to look beyond the boundaries of this planet.

The Mars direct proposal of which I have read a summary is only a one shot deal if there is no follow through. It is the logical first step to building a self-sufficient base. Since you agree that mankind has all it’s eggs in one basket so long as we only inhabit earth, doesn’t it follow that we should get started as soon as possible so that Mars can be self-sufficient that much sooner?

Do you beleive that a self-sufficient Mars base could just be launched en toto? What would you propose besides Mars direct?

The delta vee problem of moving asteroids is actually quite minor. You can use part of the mass of the asteroid as “fuel,” ionic, nuclear, the “salt water” or other variations of an Orion type drive also lend themselves readily to this purpose.

The exploitation of space is to our society, as railroading was 100 years ago.

Walking on a virtual Mars might be cool, but it’s nothing compared to the real thing.

Ultimately it’s about as satisfying as surfing the web for dirty pictures compared to actually having sex.

By the way, thank you for saving me the trouble concerning anti-matter and lasers.

Besides debating fine points for the fun of it, don’t you actually agree that a “real” space program is in every one’s long term best interests?

Both the ISS and the space shuttle (as a lift vehicle of consequence) are a farce. Isn’t Mars Direct with an eye towards a permanent base a worthy goal?

What do you seriously propose instead?


Often wrong… NEVER in doubt

I don’t know what Riboflavin may propose, Scylla, but personally I think we ought to give serious consideration to constructing the sort of orbital tether envisioned by Arthur C. Clarke in The Fountains of Paradise. (Did I get that title correct? It’s been a while . . . ).

I think we should do it because it seems to me to promise the greatest long and short term benefit to humanity with a comparatively small (at least, reasonable) investment up front. Humanity’s relationship with the cosmos will (must) change considerably when the prospect of going into space changes from a high-g blast of several minutes to a day-long (or longer) journey (with several stops for acclimation) that anyone with a middle-class vacatiion budget can afford, without having to be in prime physical condition.

Doing some quick-n-dirty calculations, I see that a load hanging at the far end of the tether will already be moving with a bit less than 4000 mph angular velocity. If it free falls from the midpoint of the tether (~22500 mi.) to the outer end, it would gain even more velocity from the centrifugal force imparted by the Earth’s spin, which at the outer end would actually be (IICC) slightly more than 1g. More importantly, the release point would be around 50000 mi. in space. This could reduce the cost of transferring resources to the moon to a toll of possibly just dollars a pound. Mars would be a longer trip, but not that much more expensive, if we wanted to pre-supply a mission.

inertia wrote:

Any two stars in orbit around each other are deemed a binary star system. The stars have to be close enough together that their mutual gravity far exceeds that of other neighboring stars and the “background” gravity of all the other stars distributed throughout the galaxy.

Since the Oort Cloud appears to be almost a light-year in radius, there’s no reason to assume that two stars in a binary star system couldn’t also be separated by nearly a light-year. However, the orbital period at that distance would be so astronomically long (pardon the pun) that we wouldn’t be able to observe the system going through even a tiny, barely-measurable fraction of a revolution within a human lifetime.

It is worth noting that Proxima Centauri is separated from the main Alpha Centauri system by over 1/10 of a light-year, yet it is still considered gravitationally bound to it.


The truth, as always, is more complicated than that.

Thanks Tracer, I missed that question.

George:

It’s a good idea. I think they are calling it a skyhook these days.

Unfortunately, it will most likely remain science fiction at least as far as earth is concerned. We don’t know of any material strong enough to support even itself over the kind of distance we’re talking about.

I remember reading that given the strength of known materials today the top of the skyhook would need a cable with something like a 50 kilometer diameter. (don’t quote me, just remember that it was so big it was ridiculous.)

The idea might work on the moon or other planets where gravity is less, and you have no atmospheric problems.

Yeah, I originally used that word in my post, but changed it to avoid confusion with the “skyhook” weather balloons.

[quote]
Unfortunately, it will most likely remain science fiction at least as far as earth is concerned. We don’t know of any material strong enough to support even itself over the kind of distance we’re talking about.
[/quote}

Scylla, have you happened to read Fountains of Paradise? Here’s a link to a review.

[http://www.sbfonline.com/15b7.htm]
(http://www.sbfonline.com/15b7.htm)

It’s been a good number of years (it came out in 1979) but even then, I think Clarke’s point was that fibers then available, or about to come on line, make such a structure quite feasible. In the book, it was the geopolitical crap that was the obstacle.

I know synthetic fibers have come even farther in the last 20 years. I believe we could start the project with a single Shuttle mission, carrying a satellite that would climb into high orbit, then unwind an extremely thin but strong central filament that would descend to a point in the atmosphere (and out to deeper space, of course) where it could be caught and anchored. It might require a second mission and satellite, which would bring the first pair of robots up to make the initial ‘wrap’ of the central filament. After that, I believe the skyhook itself would be able to provide sufficient strength.

Also, as I believe a recent shuttle mission demonstrated, its continuous passage through the Earth’s magnetic field might supply more than enough energy to power the elevator, which would effectively drop the price of a trip to no more than a plane ticket. Eventually, it might even drop as low as a bus ticket.

George:

No I haven’t read Clarke’s book, but am pretty familiar with the concept.

I’ll try to dig up the discussion I read on the subject, which includes discussion of advanced materials.


Often wrong… NEVER in doubt

Tethered satellites are a great idea, in theory. However, the theory assumes the existence of materials strong enough to support cables twenty-two thousand miles long, suspended vertically. Nanotubes might have that sort of strength. Maybe. Not a sure thing, and besides, how much fuel you gonna squirt up to orbit through a nanotube? Hundreds of nanotubes? Millions of nanotubes? Sounds like you are gonna need cable binding, and additional hardware on your cable. That means more weight.

Then the pressure needed to pump your fuel up the tube. Now you’re really gonna need binding and reinforcements. More weight. Reservoirs and pumping stations? Elevators, and differential hoists? Induction motors? The weight benefits of nanotubes begin to fade, and the likelyhood of the structure being feasible fades along with it. There are no materials known now which have tensile strength anywhere in the same order of magnitude needed for this type of technology. It’s just another space warp, so far. The original premise was today’s technology and trips to the stars in fifty years. Now we are hedging about Mars trips, and Beanstalks, and light sails, none of which are today’s technology, or trips to the stars.

<P ALIGN=“CENTER”>Tris</P>

How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it a leg.
–** Abraham Lincoln**

It’s been asked several times what we would get out of a manned mission to establish a base on another planet/moon.

While I don’t believe there would be any immediate benifit, what about the discovery of new elements?..I mean, even when we went to the moon, do you really believe that a few tons of material let’s us know everything about another body in space?..How do you know that there isn’t an element found on the moon, or Mars, that won’t lead to more inexpensive fuels for our rockets, or maybe negate gravity or something…if we don’t go and look, we’ll never find it…I do think that discussing a trip to another star, or even Mars is a bit advanced for right now. (much like planning a trip to the moon before the Wright Brothers flew) I do believe that either a more permanant space station, or a moon base is something that we could achieve now if we (as a society) wanted.

In my opinion, it’s like living all your life in one country…that doesn’t mean that you know everything about the world…just your little part of it…the same hold true for exploration of other planets/moon in space…how do we know how little we know unless we try and find out.

I don’t mean to say that we should drop everything, and pour the national budget into the space program, but I do think that just because you can’t put a finger on a solid benifit doesn’t mean there won’t be one.

Although it’s an old truism, “Nothing ventured, nothing gained” is at least partially correct.

Ahh… Thanks for bringing this thread back up people. I thought it was lost for a while there…

Now Riboflavin, I’m just going to say I will agree to disagree with you. It is my humble opinion that anti-matter propulsion will be the choice of space travel, barring any significant breakthroughs in our understanding of inertia and gravity. It is also my opinion that ZPE cannot even be remotely compared to cold fusion. Furthermore, I also feel that you will agree with me on both issues if you have access to the same information as I do. Yes, yes, yes, this is all pretty snobbish, but it’s my opinion damnit :slight_smile:

Now about my definition of practical, I think it’s as clear as any English word can be defined. If I say 10 years is practical, you can argue for 11. If I say 100, you can argue for 101 too. The point is we’re not going to get any where with this kind of argument. So, at this moment in time, I will casually define practical as 8 years, being 2 consecutive terms for a US president. I do not believe that 50, 100, or 1000 years falls within the range of practical, at least not right now. I will also casually define “right now” as the period of time lasting the next 100 years. Now are we all kosher?

The link to the NASA BPP lab’s tour is here, which I have already linked to in my earlier posts. Perhaps it just escaped your attention.
http://www.lerc.nasa.gov/WWW/PAO/warp.htm

p.s. Your calculations to the upper limit of anti-matter propulsion are still incorrect. No, I’m not going to explain that and try to convince you. Yes, this post-script is completely useless in terms of that and does not further any point in this discussion. So sue me.

Riboflavin:
In your response to Zor you say to everyone else that warp drives, worm holes, space folding and ZPE are impossible due to available energy restrictions. I can’t help but think you are speaking to me because I’m the only one who has mentioned warp drives or worm holes even though I have already said, “…these phenomena would require more energy than is contained in all of the universe.” Thanx for the recap though.

Scylla:
I believe Riboflavin’s problem with the proximity to the Sun is that even way out here in Earth orbit out astronauts take great precautions against being fried Krispy Original by solar radiation. Then there’s that whole heat thing to worry about. The surface of Mercury isn’t covered with boiling lead for no reason ya’ know.
Also, the trip to Mars needs to be made in a more sober fashion than our trip to the moon was made. If we decide instead to build a reliable space infrastructure, the thought of going to Mars in the future will be little more than an after thought. Something along the lines of “Hey, ya’ wanna’ go to Mars?” “Sure, lets go.” A much more practical approach would be to demonstrate colonization technology on the Moon while Mars is being terraformed, but that’s a whole different thread … or maybe not.

Zor:

From this question I gather that you do not realize that anti-matter has mass. It most certainly does, but an opposite charge. An anti-electron is called a positron. An anti-proton is called…er…an anti-proton, but it’s got a negative charge. You get my point. So when Ribomeister speaks of accelerating fuel, he is speaking of the mass of the anti-matter/matter (idealistically of course because you’d have to have huge power supplies and magnets to keep this stuff under wraps.)

Riboflavin and Zor:
Both you guys keep repeating that going from producing single atoms of anti-matter to producing tons of the stuff is along the lines of 10^23 magnitude more difficult. Correct me if I’m wrong, but 6.023 * 10^23 atoms of antimatter would produce 1.0079 [the atomic mass of an average H atom] GRAMS of antimater (remembered from my chemistry degree.) Therefore we get (# grams in a 4 tons of matter [or anti-matter, it all has the same mass]) * (6.023 * 10^23 atoms [the definition of a mole if anyone is paying attention]).

George:
There has been a lot of work done lately with carbon fibers particularly since the discovery/invention of buckyballs. Someone has figured out how to form hollow tubes of carbon atoms. Very, immensely, impressively strong. However, the current talk is of using skyhooks not to promote something from the ground, but from low earth orbit to higher earth orbit. This proposition still saves tons O’ cash.
Now that I’m thinking about it, I’ve also read that the Japanese had plans for a mile high building. If we were to go to an elevated point, a mountain somewhere perhaps, near the equator (the equator is closer to space than the poles) and build as tall a structure as our current technology allowed to lend support from the bottom and at points along the way we could provide additional support via helium ballons (God knows we’ve got the helium [it’s in Texas in a big tank, you look it up I know it’s there]) along the way I think it just might be possible right now. The guy with the record skydiving height (I went skydiving this weekend) took a helium balloon damn near into space. Has anyone got a Guiness Bee…er…Book handy?

Zor:

You’ll never understand me, I’m an enigma.


Be <b>Nice</b> or I’ll kick your butt.