# Ferguson, MO **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 12, 2014, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354 "2014-08-12T04:51:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 136
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2701 "2014-11-17T18:31:32Z")
You really are a moron, aren’t you? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2702 "2014-11-17T18:34:13Z")
Aww, poor enraged **Shodan**. It’s OK, you can lash out on me buddy. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2703 "2014-11-17T18:36:24Z")
Any thoughts on my post #2696, **Shodan**? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2704 "2014-11-17T18:48:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Any thoughts on my post #2696, **Shodan**? Yes - I think Wilson should not be indicted, and that rioters who throw bottles should be arrested. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2705 "2014-11-17T18:49:40Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Aww, poor enraged **Shodan**. It’s OK, you can lash out on me buddy. So it’s Yes. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2706 "2014-11-17T18:51:12Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Yes - I think Wilson should not be indicted, and that rioters who throw bottles should be arrested. And my attempt at thoughtful engagement is batted down. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2707 "2014-11-17T18:52:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It seems to me that the Ferguson PD is more likely to pull you over, and more likely to search you, if you’re black, _even though black people are statistically less likely to have contraband_. That doesn’t seem right to me You’ve misunderstood the numbers that you quoted. The likelihood of blacks and whites having contraband is unknown. The numbers you’re citing are the likelihood of blacks and whites who have been pulled over and searched having contraband. Those are not the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2708 "2014-11-17T18:56:34Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > You’ve misunderstood the numbers that you quoted. > > The likelihood of blacks and whites having contraband is unknown. The numbers you’re citing are the likelihood of blacks and whites who have been pulled over and searched having contraband. > > Those are not the same thing. Okay – I should have said “_even though **these** black people are statistically less likely to have contraband_…”. But this does nothing to affect my overall point – if the black people being searched are less likely to have contraband, _why are black people significantly more likely to be pulled over and searched_? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2709 "2014-11-17T19:04:46Z")
If in absolute terms blacks are more likely to have contraband than whites, then it would make sense to pull them over and/or search them more, even if the likelihood of contraband is lower for a given person being pulled over. As an extreme and illustrative example, suppose 0.01% of whites have contraband and 50% of blacks do. It would make sense to pull blacks over on lower degrees of other suspicisious indications, while you might pull over whites only if you actually see the contraband hanging out of their pocket. Which would give you a 100% success rate with whites and a lower success rate with blacks, but would have a statistical basis. [I should also note that your data as to the racial breakdown of Ferguson is incorrect, and understates the black/white ratio, thus overstating the stop and search disparity.] ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2710 "2014-11-17T19:06:12Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > And my attempt at thoughtful engagement is batted down. ☹ Would you like to explain how it is relevant to indicting or not indicting Wilson for shooting a man on foot who robbed a store, walked down the street blocking traffic with stolen goods in his hand, who then attacked a police officer and tried to steal his weapon? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2711 "2014-11-17T19:07:53Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > If in absolute terms blacks are more likely to have contraband than whites, then it would make sense to pull them over and/or search them more, even if the likelihood of contraband is lower for a given person being pulled over. Is there any evidence that this is the case? Are you just assuming that the Ferguson PD’s motives are pure here, or is there any reason to believe they’re justified in disproportionately pulling over and searching black motorists? > [@](#): > > [I should also note that your data as to the racial breakdown of Ferguson is incorrect, and understates the black/white ratio, thus overstating the stop and search disparity.] What data is incorrect? Please correct me. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2712 "2014-11-17T19:11:40Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Would you like to explain how it is relevant to indicting or not indicting Wilson for shooting a man on foot who robbed a store, walked down the street blocking traffic with stolen goods in his hand, who then attacked a police officer and tried to steal his weapon? > > Regards, > Shodan The discussion has veered far and wide in this massive thread, but it seems to me that data about the Ferguson PD’s possible disparate treatment of black people is relevant to a discussion about protesters who are protesting, among other things, supposed disparate treatment of black people by the Ferguson PD. If you don’t want to engage on this, fine, but it’s not reasonable to pretend that statistics about the Ferguson PD and black people are not relevant to this discussion. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2713 "2014-11-17T19:15:34Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > [I should also note that your data as to the racial breakdown of Ferguson is incorrect, and understates the black/white ratio, thus overstating the stop and search disparity.] The data came from [here](http://ago.mo.gov/VehicleStops/2013/reports/161.pdf), by the way. There’s a line “Local Population”, with white population 33.65% and black population 63.00%. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2714 "2014-11-17T19:19:48Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Is there any evidence that this is the case? Are you just assuming that the Ferguson PD’s motives are pure here, or is there any reason to believe they’re justified in disproportionately pulling over and searching black motorists? I am not aware of any such evidence. Possibly the Ferguson police are all secret Klan members. All I’m saying is that the actual numbers don’t prove that there is not rational, non-bigotted basis for the disparity, and that the difference between the way you presented it and the reality is highly significant in this regard. > [@](#): > > What data is incorrect? Please correct me. According to [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferguson,_Missouri#2010_census), the white black ratio in the 2010 census was 29.3% to 67.4%. Further, this has been changing fairly rapidly, since in the 2000 census the ratio was 44.8% to 52.4%. Which has 2 implications, 1) that it’s likely that the white/black ratio by 2013 is still lower yet, and 2) that it’s likely that the ratio is even more unbalanced among the younger population, which is the demographic most likely to be stopped and searched. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2715 "2014-11-17T19:22:11Z")
Because trying to get sympathy for allegedly disparate treatment from a case where there doesn’t seem to be any disparate treatment is kind of dumb. Especially when at least one “leader” says they are going to protest whether there is any disparate treatment or not. And doubly especially when the idiots are trying to get special exemptions from breaking the law. Like saying “no tear gas even if we throw bottles at you” or “we get to pick places where it’s safesies” or “that guy from out of town in the green hat doesn’t have to disperse and you can’t arrest him” and the rest of the bullshit. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2716 "2014-11-17T19:23:02Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Where do the Rules of Engagement say that people who throw bottles at the police should not be arrested? > > Oh, that’s right, they don’t. You find it necessary to lie to make your point. I’m shocked. They don’t explicitly say that. But don’t they say something about water bottles and the throwers thereof? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2717 "2014-11-17T19:24:32Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I am not aware of any such evidence. Possibly the Ferguson police are all secret Klan members. All I’m saying is that the actual numbers don’t prove that there is not rational, non-bigotted basis for the disparity, and that the difference between the way you presented it and the reality is highly significant in this regard. Huh? The way I presented this was “black people are disparately stopped and searched, even though they have less contraband then white people who are stopped and searched”. Do you disagree with this statement? > [@](#): > > According to [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferguson,_Missouri#2010_census), the white black ratio in the 2010 census was 29.3% to 67.4%. Further, this has been changing fairly rapidly, since in the 2000 census the ratio was 44.8% to 52.4%. Which has 2 implications, 1) that it’s likely that the white/black ratio by 2013 is still lower yet, and 2) that it’s likely that the ratio is even more unbalanced among the younger population, which is the demographic most likely to be stopped and searched. And according to [this](http://ago.mo.gov/VehicleStops/2013/reports/161.pdf), which I linked to in the post, in 2013 the numbers were 33.65% and 63%. A rapid change does not imply that the newcomers are younger – such a rapid demographic change sounds like it could more easily be explained by movements among the regional populations, which would tell us nothing about age. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2718 "2014-11-17T19:24:40Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The data came from [here](http://ago.mo.gov/VehicleStops/2013/reports/161.pdf), by the way. There’s a line “Local Population”, with white population 33.65% and black population 63.00%. That population is 16 and older, which probably accounts for the difference. Big issue is what the age of white population in Ferguson. If you look at your table, you’ll see that the black/white stop ratio decreases with increasing age - it’s 8.74 for 18-29 and down to 4.67 for “over 40”. I imagine if you split “over 50” and “over 60” and so on, it would decrease even further. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2719 "2014-11-17T19:27:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Huh? The way I presented this was “black people are disparately stopped and searched, even though they have less contraband then white people who are stopped and searched”. > > Do you disagree with this statement? No, but as shown earlier, that statement is not particularly meaningfull, while your initial statement was meaningful (though incorrect). > [@](#): > > And according to [this](http://ago.mo.gov/VehicleStops/2013/reports/161.pdf), which I linked to in the post, in 2013 the numbers were 33.65% and 63%. Your link says it’s taken from the 2010 census. I explained the discrepancy from Wiki in my prior post. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > A rapid change does not imply that the newcomers are younger – such a rapid demographic change sounds like it could more easily be explained by movements among the regional populations, which would tell us nothing about age. A rapid change does imply that the newcomers are younger. That’s invariably the case. Older people are the ones who stay put. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/2720 "2014-11-17T19:34:10Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Big issue is what the age of white population in Ferguson. If you look at your table, you’ll see that the black/white stop ratio decreases with increasing age - it’s 8.74 for 18-29 and down to 4.67 for “over 40”. I imagine if you split “over 50” and “over 60” and so on, it would decrease even further. I don’t see how this better explains things, or exculpates the cops from any charges of treating black people disparately. Young black people are still pulled over at a vastly higher rate than white people. Further, we can look at the “Reason for stop” line: black people are disparately pulled over for moving violations at about a 4 or 5 to 1 ratio, but for equipment, license, or “investigation” reasons by more than a 10 to 1 ratio. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354.md?page=135) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354.md?page=137)