# Ferguson, MO **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 12, 2014, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354 "2014-08-12T04:51:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 190
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3781 "2015-01-24T00:54:38Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > To elaborate: [How Many Police Kill Black Men? Without Database, We Can't Know | STLPR](http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/how-many-police-kill-black-men-without-database-we-cant-know) > > Klinger [criminology professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis] doesn’t mince words: “The ProPublica thing needs to be shut down. They cherry picked the three years that had the worst disparity instead of being honest about the whole picture" > … > "The ProPublica analysis is absolute garbage because it is based on the FBI’s supplemental homicide reports. I told them, don’t do it because the stats are horseshit.” > > Hope the word “horseshit” is black/white enough? > > Looking at the bigger, 15-year picture, Moskos found that black youths were nine times more likely than white youths to be killed by officers. Including Hispanics among whites cut the ratio to 5.5:1. Including victims of all ages reduced the ratio to 4:1. One reason that the three-year period cited by ProPublica gave such a high ratio is that only one non-Hispanic white was killed in 2010, skewing the figures. > > That’s quite a bit closer to rate of crime ratios, wouldn’t you say? But funny enough you keep quoting the 21 times crap, and not what others found. Wonder if you have an agenda? As ProPublica notes, the disparity is growing – 15 years ago, the disparity was lower than it is today. The disparity in recent years is significantly larger than the disparity in longer-past years. It would be interesting to see the year-by-year data (as opposed to “the last 3 years” vs “the last 15 years” put together) – extrapolating from the collective data, it looks like the disparities from the last 3 years were at least twice as large as from a decade ago or more. And as Klinger notes, we need a national database of all police shootings, along with demographic details. As far as my agenda, it is only to find the truth. I am as pure as the driven snow; a truth-seeking missile fired from the submarine of justice. As always, I thank you, my loveliest friend **Terr** [kiss], for our spirited sparring on substantive issues. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3782 "2015-01-24T01:00:32Z")
I detect a note of sarcasm. Testing: please wait. 731 millihicks on the RadioShlock Snarkometer. Roughly, a buttload. Metric. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3783 "2015-01-24T02:06:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As far as my agenda, it is only to find the truth. Then I will be expecting you to quote the 5.5:1 and 4:1 ratios instead of 21:1 “horseshit” one. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3784 "2015-01-24T02:40:34Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Then I will be expecting you to quote the 5.5:1 and 4:1 ratios instead of 21:1 “horseshit” one. The 21 is true for the last 3 years. The disparity was lower farther back – so it’s getting worse. And the comparison is between young black men and young white men, not young white/hispanic men. The trend of the disparity (getting worse over the last several years) might even make this a worse problem, not a less severe one. You forgot to return my [kiss]. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3785 "2015-01-24T02:44:54Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The 21 is true for the last 3 years. The disparity was lower farther back – so it’s getting worse. And the comparison is between young black men and young white men, not young white/hispanic men. > > The trend of the disparity (getting worse over the last several years) might even make this a worse problem, not a less severe one. > > You forgot to return my [kiss]. 21 is not “true” - the professor who reviewed it called it “horseshit”. But you will persist in lying. I didn’t expect any better. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3786 "2015-01-24T03:00:00Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > 21 is not “true” - the professor who reviewed it called it “horseshit”. But you will persist in lying. I didn’t expect any better. Yes, it’s true for the last 3 years. It’s not true for the last 15 years (and no one has said it was). That it’s gotten worse is worrying. A professor calling something “horseshit” doesn’t necessarily make it false. I’m not lying, my adoring, oh-so-kissable friend. The numbers I’ve stated are facts. Adorable **Terr** , it’s possible to disagree without accusations of lying. This is a complicated world. Isn’t it just so much sweeter to consider that I might be a nice, honest, patriotic, and hard-working person that just sees things differently than you? ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3787 "2015-01-24T04:26:53Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The numbers I’ve stated are facts. The numbers you stated are cherrypicked horseshit from a datasource that covers a tiny fraction of the country. As confirmed by a professor of criminology at a university. But you will keep using it, because integrity is a foreign concept you you. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3788 "2015-01-24T04:28:55Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > The numbers you stated are cherrypicked horseshit from a datasource that covers a tiny fraction of the country. As confirmed by a professor of criminology at a university. But you will keep using it, because integrity is a foreign concept you you. At least you’ve shifted from “lying”. 🙂 I’ll take it, my aspersion-casting, adorable and intimate friend! You make me smile. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3789 "2015-01-24T07:36:05Z")
Well, now, you just hold up there with casting asparagus! He’s got himself a university professor who says that **Terr** ’s right! And you don’t have one, looks like, so he’s one to nothing on you! Now, maybe if you can dig up some hack from Mother Jones University who’ll pretend to agree with you, you could even up some. But without that, you’re boned. Slink away cringing, pretty much all you got. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3790 "2015-01-24T11:20:22Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > The numbers you stated are cherrypicked horseshit from a datasource that covers a tiny fraction of the country. As confirmed by a professor of criminology at a university. But you will keep using it, because integrity is a foreign concept you you. I once started a Pit thread about **Terr** to say that for someone who prattles often about statistics, **Terr** ’s knowledge about even the most basic facts is non-existent. There might be matters on which he’s competent to contribute, but anything related to statistics isn’t among them. Lots of people have never taken a formal course in statistics. But many of those nevertheless have at least a tiny smidgen of mathematical intuition. And among those who have no capacity whatsoever for a mathematical viewpoint, there’s always a faint hope that they won’t go Dunning–Kruger, and will listen to their betters. No such hope for **Terr** , who may be Mr. Dunning-Kruger Effect in person. And an insulting asshole as well, with garbage like “because integrity is a foreign concept you you.” > [@Terr](#): > > [QUOTE=iiandyiiii] > The data set is pretty _ **large** _, but it’s just a tiny proportion of all the data. America is big. Right, so the “21 times” is meaningless. [/QUOTE] Hi, **Terr**. I’ve taken the liberty of emphasizing the most relevant word in **iiandyiiii** ’s post. If you’re sincere about trying to acquire a 6th grade-level background in statistics, I’d suggest you start here. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3791 "2015-01-24T11:30:07Z")
If one isn’t an expert on something, the best course would be to look at what the experts - such as, for example, professors of criminology - are saying. **iiandyiiii** ’s claim that statistics from the last 3 years are more informative than longer term ones with a larger sample is akin to the claims of global warming deniers that one slightly cooler year proves them right. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3792 "2015-01-24T13:21:31Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > If one isn’t an expert on something, the best course would be to look at what the experts - such as, for example, professors of criminology - are saying. How about the professors at ProPublica? 🙂 Different experts say different things. > [@](#): > > **iiandyiiii** ’s claim that statistics from the last 3 years are more informative than longer term ones with a larger sample is akin to the claims of global warming deniers that one slightly cooler year proves them right. Another fine straw man. The last 3 years of data tells us more about the last 3 years. Comparing it to the last 15 years tells us about the trend. The fact that, according to this data, the disparity in police shootings of young black men is getting _larger_ is troubling, in addition to the size of the disparity. As the professor says, police departments should record and supply complete data about shootings. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3793 "2015-01-24T14:58:54Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Another fine straw man. The last 3 years of data tells us more about the last 3 years. Comparing it to the last 15 years tells us about the trend. How about the the fact that 2010 is the outlier (which is why the 2010-2012 period was cherrypicked), and if you took instead the “last two years” - 2011 to 2012, the ratio would be much lower? Would that establish “the fact” that “according to this data, the disparity in police shootings of young black men is getting _smaller_”? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3794 "2015-01-24T15:06:04Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > How about the the fact that 2010 is the outlier (which is why the 2010-2012 period was cherrypicked), and if you took instead the “last two years” - 2011 to 2012, the ratio would be much lower? Would that establish “the fact” that “according to this data, the disparity in police shootings of young black men is getting _smaller_”? One year-to-year change probably doesn’t constitute a trend – we’ll see how it looks with a few more years of (hopefully) more comprehensive data. But good job for interpreting data in a specific way such that it kind of looks like it supports your point (the very thing you’re accusing me of doing)! ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3795 "2015-01-24T18:08:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > One year-to-year change probably doesn’t constitute a trend – we’ll see how it looks with a few more years of (hopefully) more comprehensive data. But good job for interpreting data in a specific way such that it kind of looks like it supports your point (the very thing you’re accusing me of doing)! I was doing exactly what you were doing, to illustrate a point. Cherrypicking. I see it got through. Next step is admitting you’re wrong. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3796 "2015-01-24T20:29:35Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I was doing exactly what you were doing, to illustrate a point. Cherrypicking. I see it got through. Next step is admitting you’re wrong. Wrong about what, my delectable little piglet? The 21 number is factual – from the last 3 years, love. It’s not the only number we should look at (and it shouldn’t be ignored, obviously), but it may be part of a trend. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2015, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3797 "2015-01-24T23:54:57Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The 21 number is factual – from the last 3 years, love. And extremely cherrypicked. Because the first of those 3 years was an extreme outlier. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3798 "2015-01-25T00:25:53Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > And extremely cherrypicked. Because the first of those 3 years was an extreme outlier. Perhaps, my dear, luscious friend. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3799 "2015-01-25T06:55:37Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > And extremely cherrypicked. Because the first of those 3 years was an extreme outlier. I repeat the question: "Boiled down, what? Are you denying that any unjust disparity exists, or only that it is exaggerated? " ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2015, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354/3800 "2015-01-25T08:17:25Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > …Rachel Maddow cannot convene a grand jury… Yes, she could! Its just not yet the right time to reveal herself. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354.md?page=189) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ferguson-mo/695354.md?page=191)