# Fermi Paradox solved. (Well by me...so...) **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 25, 2015, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524 "2015-09-25T22:47:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/41 "2015-09-30T20:46:43Z")
> [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > What is the motivation for us to build these self-replicating robots? Over the timescales and numbers of generations you’re talking about, they would change dramatically under Darwinian selection. Those who turned all the matter they encountered into more replicators would be favoured. Sounds like a good way to destroy the galaxy. There doesn’t have to be a motivation. As you yourself in your own post just admitted, you could get there incrementally. All that is required is that among a pool of technological beings on earth making various probes, some people make probes that are more voracious about self replication than others. If the probes, as they copy themselves, deliberately mutate themselves or self modify…well…you know the results. Life doesn’t have a purpose, it just exists because it can exist, and it’s only goal is to continue existing and spread itself wherever it can. The other motivation is a classic one. Let’s say the probes aren’t dumb, they have people smarter than you or I onboard (as digital intelligences, not apes in a can). “All these rules against \ suck. I wanna go somewhere the authorities can’t disrupt my flow, mon. Let’s build a starship and blow this joint.” Eventually, evolution will push towards beings who are just inherently restless and hate staying in a given star system, always wanting to push the frontier further. ---
**Author:** ![Telperion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telperion/32/509_2.png) [@Telperion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telperion)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/42 "2015-09-30T20:56:49Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > Eventually, evolution will push towards beings who are just inherently restless and hate staying in a given star system, always wanting to push the frontier further. I’m not so convinced. I feel like planets are going to start looking pretty much the same after you’ve explored a few million of them. Could well be that there are other dimensions that are more exciting to explore. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/43 "2015-09-30T21:08:18Z")
My solution for the Fermi paradox is by analogy to the first forms of life. Once you had life competing with non-life, it filled up all the niches life could fill up. There was no second origin of life because the first origin got there first and used the resources a second origin would need. On a geologic time scale, a civilization could colonize the entire galaxy in a short span - let’s say 10 million years, which is a speed of just 1% light. And once the galaxy has been colonized by one life form, the resources needed by a new one are already taken. Conclusion: there can only be one intelligent species per galaxy… and here we are. This assumes we don’t wipe ourselves out first, but it explains why we don’t see any other aliens. If they were there, we wouldn’t be. ---
**Author:** ![Don\_t\_Panic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/don_t_panic/32/398_2.png) [@Don\_t\_Panic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Panic)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/44 "2015-09-30T21:16:19Z")
> [@dracoi](#): > > Conclusion: there can only be one intelligent species per galaxy… and here we are. The guys living five potentially habitable exoplanets over from here are saying the same thing. “We’re special” has a terrible track record in the history of cosmology. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/45 "2015-09-30T21:50:35Z")
> [@Martian Bigfoot](#): > > The guys living five potentially habitable exoplanets over from here are saying the same thing. > > “We’re special” has a terrible track record in the history of cosmology. The point is, Martian, that a few million years is an eyeblink. Those “guys”, if they exist, it is vanishingly unlikely that they are at our development level or ahead of it. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/46 "2015-09-30T21:51:36Z")
> [@Telperion](#): > > I’m not so convinced. I feel like planets are going to start looking pretty much the same after you’ve explored a few million of them. Could well be that there are other dimensions that are more exciting to explore. Doesn’t change the fact that if there’s a pool of explorers, copying themselves with modifications every generation, some of those explorers won’t get bored and will be perfectly happy continuing to explore our dimension. Same basic natural selection as everything else that led to life. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/47 "2015-09-30T21:51:48Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > There doesn’t have to be a motivation. As you yourself in your own post just admitted, you could get there incrementally. All that is required is that among a pool of technological beings on earth making various probes, some people make probes that are more voracious about self replication than others. If the probes, as they copy themselves, deliberately mutate themselves or self modify…well…you know the results. > > Life doesn’t have a purpose, it just exists because it can exist, and it’s only goal is to continue existing and spread itself wherever it can. > > The other motivation is a classic one. Let’s say the probes aren’t dumb, they have people smarter than you or I onboard (as digital intelligences, not apes in a can). “All these rules against \ suck. I wanna go somewhere the authorities can’t disrupt my flow, mon. Let’s build a starship and blow this joint.” > > Eventually, evolution will push towards beings who are just inherently restless and hate staying in a given star system, always wanting to push the frontier further. But we do have a strong motivation to _prevent_ this from happening. We are ethical beings who do not want to see the galaxy destroyed and all those lifeforms extinguished. Self-replicating physical machines are not something somebody can make inadvertently. We would have to deliberately build them at enormous cost and effort. Knowing how incredibly stupid and dangerous that would be, I don’t see why anyone would. If we were to create a superintelligent AI capable of creating replicator-bots, the issue would be the so called control problem. If its goals are misaligned with ours, then who knows what it might do. Since it would be unlikely to face any competition though (for very long at least) its hard to see how the kind of ‘selection in favour of expansionism’ you describe could come about. Again I would say it would come down to the motivation of said AI overlord. So the ‘paradox’ becomes ‘why haven’t aliens built superintelligent machines which inexplicably want to destroy the galaxy.’ ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/48 "2015-09-30T22:35:26Z")
> [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > But we do have a strong motivation to _prevent_ this from happening. We are ethical beings who do not want to see the galaxy destroyed and all those lifeforms extinguished. Self-replicating physical machines are not something somebody can make inadvertently. We would have to deliberately build them at enormous cost and effort. Knowing how incredibly stupid and dangerous that would be, I don’t see why anyone would.’ For one thing, it would make us (well, whoever is alive when this is done) immortal, or near immortal (universe appears to be dying but it’s trillions of years away). For another, different people have different ethics. I see nothing ethically wrong with “destroying” the dead matter of the galaxy. I see it as bringing it all to life - you would store on digital data files the original state of all the planets and moons and asteroids you tear down, so it’s not like they are really gone. You would be able to recreate them if you wanted. If you find a planet that actually has life on it, I wouldn’t destroy it, I’d just occupy all the dead rocks in the same planetary system and observe the life non-invasively from a distance. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/49 "2015-09-30T23:01:39Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > For one thing, it would make us (well, whoever is alive when this is done) immortal, or near immortal (universe appears to be dying but it’s trillions of years away). For another, different people have different ethics. I see nothing ethically wrong with “destroying” the dead matter of the galaxy. I see it as bringing it all to life - you would store on digital data files the original state of all the planets and moons and asteroids you tear down, so it’s not like they are really gone. You would be able to recreate them if you wanted. If you find a planet that actually has life on it, I wouldn’t destroy it, I’d just occupy all the dead rocks in the same planetary system and observe the life non-invasively from a distance. But your descendants who stopped at converting only the dead matter would be superceded by all-consuming destructo-bots. Is that what you want? Cos that’s what’ll happen. ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/50 "2015-09-30T23:23:10Z")
> [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > But your descendants who stopped at converting only the dead matter would be superceded by all-consuming destructo-bots. > Is that what you want? Cos that’s what’ll happen. Maybe. Maybe not. That’s the other thing. If “I” consume all the ecological niches, there won’t be a niche for the destructo-bots. Also, defending a star is probably vastly easier than attacking it - any starship decelerating has to emit a flare of gamma rays as bright as a star to run the matter conversion drive you have to use. (by matter conversion I just mean a catch-all term for fusion, antimatter, or even black holes. Some way of burning matter for energy). So you can see them coming, and the payload on a starship has to be small and light, or it would have required too big of a rocket to launch. So you just send out a “who goes there” radio message and zap em with a big x-ray laser if you don’t like the answer. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2015, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/51 "2015-09-30T23:36:13Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > The point is, Martian, that a few million years is an eyeblink. Those “guys”, if they exist, it is vanishingly unlikely that they are at our development level or ahead of it. Yep, my thinking exactly. It would be like postulating that Columbus-the-Italian is crossing the Atlantic, and just happens to run into Columbus-the-Aztec halfway across. The odds that one of them is not first are just insignificant even on a galactic scale. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/52 "2015-10-01T00:03:08Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > Also, defending a star is probably vastly easier than attacking it Not in my experience. Once you take down the Dyson sphere, they’re pretty much sitting ducks. Send in the nano-swarm to clear the area, then a massive EMP to disable them and it’s job done. Lovely matter for supper. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/53 "2015-10-01T00:18:29Z")
Wait but why did a good article on the Fermi paradox discussing this scenario, where there could be a massive bottleneck after a society develops technology but before they become inter planetary or inter stellar. > **[The Fermi Paradox - Wait But Why](https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html)** > > The Fermi Paradox: There should be 100,000 intelligent alien civilizations in our galaxy — so why haven't we found any of them? Here is a good video too. Even if FTL travel is not possible, we can still colonize the galaxy in a couple million years which isn't very long on a universal scale. ---
**Author:** ![Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/regallag_the_axe/32/445_2.png) [@Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Regallag_The_Axe)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/54 "2015-10-01T00:35:18Z")
Maybe there is a technological civilization out there somewhere, and we haven’t seen them because they have no interest in leaving their home planet. The assumption that any technological civilization will eventually take to the stars may not be valid. ---
**Author:** ![Don\_t\_Panic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/don_t_panic/32/398_2.png) [@Don\_t\_Panic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Panic)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/55 "2015-10-01T00:55:00Z")
> [@dracoi](#): > > It would be like postulating that Columbus-the-Italian is crossing the Atlantic, and just happens to run into Columbus-the-Aztec halfway across. The odds that one of them is not first are just insignificant even on a galactic scale. It’s not, because we’re nowhere near beginning to cross the cosmic Atlantic. We may never do it. It’s like Columbus the Italian staring out over the ocean trying to spot something over the horizon, and Columbaztek doing the same on the other side. I aliens are looking in our direction, chances are that they’re not noticing us. Same for the other direction. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/56 "2015-10-01T01:46:17Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > One reason is that the universe was 8 billion years old because our sun was formed. Now there wouldn’t have been any metals in the early stars and their planets, but I think earth-like planets would have existed long before earth did. Sure, but there are various processes along the way that take a long time. On Earth, IIRC, to go from very simple proto-cells to the first multicellular life took over 3 billion years. Perhaps this is an astonishingly _quick_ time for a whole series of unlikely events to happen, and Earth is indeed first out of the block. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/57 "2015-10-01T02:36:49Z")
> [@Mikeisskeptical](#): > > What is the motivation for us to build these self-replicating robots? . . . What was the motivation to put the data plaque on the Voyager probe? We’re the kind of species that carves our names on the stones of the Great Pyramid. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/58 "2015-10-01T02:47:28Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > What was the motivation to put the data plaque on the Voyager probe? > > We’re the kind of species that carves our names on the stones of the Great Pyramid. Yes, but as far as I know, the voyager plaque does not attempt to turn all of the matter in the galaxy into little plaques. Building self-replicating, galaxy colonising robots and firing them off in all directions is way beyond our technology for the foreseeable future. If it wasn’t, it would be irresponsible and dangerous beyond belief. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/59 "2015-10-01T03:07:24Z")
Maybe the answer to the supposed paradox lies in the anthropic principle. We know we are in a galaxy where there has only been one technological species, because in galaxies with multiple such species, sooner or later, somebody has the monumentally dumb idea of releasing self-replicating robot colonists all over the place. We therefore would not exist if anyone had gotten there significantly before us. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2015, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524/60 "2015-10-01T03:12:49Z")
Or… > **[Fish](https://xkcd.com/1377/)** > > \[Astronomer peers into telescope\] \[Jaws theme begins playing\] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fermi-paradox-solved-well-by-me-so/732524.md?page=4)