# FIFA World Cup 2026 - discussion etc **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-soccer-fifa\ **Created:** [October 14, 2025, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962 "2025-10-14T15:43:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/101 "2025-11-21T00:12:40Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > what would England/France/Spain need to give up for it to be 50/50 with the US? The ten man better than eleven paradox has been deeply studied, but not solved. > **[Reddit - The heart of the internet](https://www.reddit.com/r/PremierLeague/comments/162wfbd/the_10_v_11_paradox/)** ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/102 "2025-11-21T00:37:56Z")
Only 156,000 people! > **[Curaçao makes soccer history as smallest nation by population to qualify for...](https://apnews.com/article/curacao-panama-haiti-world-cup-2026-ad26383b6c7276479d2a309a7970a5cb)** > > Curaçao has made history by becoming the smallest nation by population to qualify for a World Cup. It has secured a 0-0 draw with Jamaica to finish atop Group B with 12 points. ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/103 "2025-11-21T14:26:24Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Hmm if you were handicapping teams like you handicap players in chess, what would England/France/Spain need to give up for it to be 50/50 with the US? 1.5 players? That is 11v10 for the first half and then 11v9 for the second. I will note that England has never beaten the US in the World Cup. The US beat England 1-0 in 1950, and they tied in 2010 and 2022. The difference between the US and England is not as large as the English would have you believe. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/104 "2025-11-21T14:47:16Z")
I think I’m reasonably clear eyed about the US’s relative ability. I don’t know if there’s anyone on the current US roster that makes a 23 man squad for England. Probably Pulisic, maybe Robinson? Transfermark has the transfer value of the two squads as England - 1.3B, US - 156M. Sure, the US can get a result on even footing, but I wouldn’t take an even money bet. ---
**Author:** ![We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/We_re_wolves_not_werewolves)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/105 "2025-11-21T15:07:19Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > I remember South Korea beating Italy ([much glee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage#South_Korea_vs_Italy)), then Spain ([oh jammer!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage#Spain_vs_South_Korea)) to finally succumb to Germany (there the powers that be lost their nerve, thank Godott). The refereeing was unblievable, and yes, I had the same thought. Again and again. We shall see. I remember those games! It was so infuriating. Two really good teams just getting totally screwed by the refs. Nothing against S. Korea, they were a fun plucky team, but clearly did not deserve to win those games. ---
**Author:** ![iamatractorboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iamatractorboy/32/21261_2.png) [@iamatractorboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamatractorboy)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/106 "2025-11-21T15:28:14Z")
Spain were particularly hard done by. I think the Italy match has been blown a little out of proportion over the years. But Spain, totally robbed. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/107 "2025-11-21T16:26:09Z")
Looking at highlights can be pretty deceptive. Like the Italy game tends to leave out rough challenges by the Italians but leaves in all the SK rough stuff. That said, why is the first disallowed Spain goal controversial? Clear foul on the Spanish player. The second is a wildly bad call from the linesman, but the SK players stopped defending at the whistle so who knows if Spain would have actually scored. ---
**Author:** ![iamatractorboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iamatractorboy/32/21261_2.png) [@iamatractorboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamatractorboy)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2025, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/108 "2025-11-21T16:59:12Z")
Clear foul on the Spanish player? I’m assuming you mean SK player. I’ve just watched the highlights again and I have to completely disagree with you on that. The foul was nonexistent. The second one, where the lino adjudged the ball was over the line (a laughably bad decision)… hmmm, I really don’t think the SK defender was getting there for that one either. He definitely hadn’t given up, he turned and faced towards the attacker as the header into the goal was made. He didn’t jump but it’s clear it wasn’t because the whistle was being blown, he just knew he wasn’t getting there. The whistle only sounded at pretty much the exact moment the header was made. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2025, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/109 "2025-12-04T18:57:08Z")
US won’t rule out ICE raids at World Cup events. [White House won’t rule out ICE raids at World Cup matches](https://prosoccerwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/2025/12/04/white-house-wont-rule-out-ice-raids-at-world-cup-matches/87604371007/) What? Why is FIFA giving him their first peace prize, if not to keep this from happening!? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/110 "2025-12-05T19:13:00Z")
The draw’s finished, so the groups are set pending the last qualifications. With the expanded field there’s no real group of death. The USA’s group is probably going to be: USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye which is probably going the be the most even group top to bottom, but no top teams. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/111 "2025-12-05T19:14:35Z")
Brazil!?! Why does it always have to be Brazil? ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/112 "2025-12-05T19:14:48Z")
I was pleasantly surprised to see that Trump was awarded the FIFA Peace Prize. Two months ago, I would never have felt such a thing was possible, or even extent. > **[FIFA gives President Donald Trump a peace prize in a departure from its...](https://apnews.com/article/trump-world-cup-fifa-peace-prize-e14f95b8adaa197c869cad407b6ef604)** > > FIFA gives its new peace prize to President Donald Trump. It’s an unusual break from tradition for the sport-focused soccer organization, whose president has become a close ally of Trump. ---
**Author:** ![EinsteinsHund](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/einsteinshund/32/8400_2.png) [@EinsteinsHund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EinsteinsHund)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/113 "2025-12-05T19:15:51Z")
Germany with Ecuador, Cote d’Ivoire and Curacao. Probably the first time we had no European rival in the group. Sounds easy on paper, but I don’t know these three teams very well. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/114 "2025-12-05T19:17:02Z")
Canada is facing Qatar and the Swiss. It beats Croatia, Belgium and Morocco. But we will have to see if the result is better. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/115 "2025-12-05T19:24:53Z")
Yeah, on paper, Curacao seems to be a laughably weak opponent in a group, but who knows, maybe they could pull a 2016 Iceland. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/116 "2025-12-05T19:25:33Z")
Ecuador is 9th in the world on ELO, higher than Germany. Finished 2nd in CONMEBOL qualifying. Basically zero show Germany doesn’t finish at least 2nd in the group though. ---
**Author:** ![EinsteinsHund](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/einsteinshund/32/8400_2.png) [@EinsteinsHund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EinsteinsHund)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/117 "2025-12-05T20:04:55Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Ecuador is 9th in the world on ELO, higher than Germany. I don’t know the ELO system, but in Fifa’s world ranking, Ecuador is 23rd while Germany is 9th. Cote d’Ivoire is 42nd. But I can’t quite tell if the Fifa ranking is based on a sound model either. At least Germany never lost to any of their three rivals (although I doubt that we even ever played Curacao). ---
**Author:** ![EinsteinsHund](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/einsteinshund/32/8400_2.png) [@EinsteinsHund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EinsteinsHund)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/118 "2025-12-05T20:17:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Yeah, on paper, Curacao seems to be a laughably weak opponent in a group, but who knows, maybe they could pull a 2016 Iceland. The highest win I remember was Germany-Saudi-Arabia 8-0 in the group stage of the 2002 WC, when Miro Klose scored the first three of his record setting 16 WC goals. Can we expect a similar score against Curacao? Their coach Dick Advocaat even had a brief, unsuccessful spell as coach of my favorite club, Borussia Mönchengladbach, but he’s been everywhere. ETA: I forgot a fun fact, Dick Advocaat will be the oldest coach in a WC ever at age 78, succeeding Otto Rehhagel for Greece. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/119 "2025-12-05T20:38:04Z")
FIFA rankings are notoriously terrible and I think ELO better reflects the actual ability of the teams, but no system is perfect, obviously. Curacao actually isn’t the lowest ranked team in the tournament by either FIFA or ELO (New Zealand in the former and Qatar in the latter). Curacao is the first game for Germany, so that’s the most likely you’ll see a score run up for GD, but expecting 8 is a lot. Now, New Caledonia can still qualify and they’re be by far the lowest rated team in the tournament if they made it (141 ELO / 149 FIFA), so maybe if that happens we’ll see a massive blowout. ---
**Author:** ![EinsteinsHund](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/einsteinshund/32/8400_2.png) [@EinsteinsHund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EinsteinsHund)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962/120 "2025-12-05T21:02:01Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Curacao is the first game for Germany, so that’s the most likely you’ll see a score run up for GD, but expecting 8 is a lot. Yeah, I don’t expect or even demand such a high victory, I’d be glad if we only made it out of the group stage after missing the knock out games in 2018 and 2022. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fifa-world-cup-2026-discussion-etc/1023962.md?page=7)