FIFA World Cup 2026 - discussion etc

This is strictly my opinion, so take it for what it’s worth.

I have found that the easiest place to bet is on your smartphone or laptop. Download the bookmaking app, create an account, fund the account, and place your bet. DraftKings and FanDuel are the best apps that I’ve found.

The danger, of course, is that you can make bets anytime as long as you’re in a state where betting is legal.

Yes, certainly. Every casino these days has a Sportsbook section dedicated to accepting bets on sporting events. And don’t hesitate to ask questions of the folks behind the counter. Tell them that you want to bet X dollars on France or England or USA or Argentina or Spain or anybody else to win the World Cup and they will be happy to help you. They should be able to tell you what the odds and payouts are as well, if you ask them.

Too late! :laughing:, I saw them before you spoilered them and now I have a grudge against Nate SIlver for trying to jinx us :enraged_face:

That depends on the laws in Michigan, but probably. You may have also seen television ads informing you that betting online is now an option; a link to one such site, DraftKings, is included in your ESPN link.

Well, I tried! :laughing:

Actually, I see there are also a lot of mathematically “good” bets that will almost certainly lose. Austria, Scotland, Paraguay, Sweden, Ivory Coast, South Korea, Algeria and Egypt are all 500-1 or 1000-1 longshots that are paying at much better odds. Looks like Paraguay is your very best bet, paying at 4000-1.

About ten years ago, I started getting calls from a sports-betting outfit, probably in Las Vegas. I was sort of tempted to try and stump the guy, and see if I could ask for odds on some sport they wouldn’t have odds for. “What can I get for Sweden in the world curling championship?”

It was an interesting couple of calls. I told the guy at the start that I don’t bet on sports, but he kept talking. After a while, he seemed to be getting a bit miffed, almost combative. I said “don’t be mad at me; I told you at the beginning that I don’t bet.”

Also, host nations have often over-performed due to home boost factor.

USA went to Round of 16 in 1994.

France won it all in 1998.

South Korea went to semifinals in 2002, and Japan made it to the Round of 16.

Russia made it to quarterfinals in 2018, surpassing expectations.

So team USA may be a decent gambling bet this year to go to quarterfinals, although semifinal or final is being way too optimistic.

Yes, Silver is calculating a heavy dose of home nation advantage into those “short” 43-1 odds. He agrees exactly with the bookies on Canada at 250-1, incidentally.

I won’t be betting. I’ve never gambled aside from:

  • Had a 30 hour layover in Vegas and went into one casino to pull the slot machine lever a couple times.

  • Had jury duty in Detroit, which is right by Greektown Casino. Again, went in and played a little slots for fun. Won nothing. Got free soda, though!

Is that as far as Silver lists the odds?

On FanDuel, there are 12 countries that have listed odds at +250000. A $10 bet on any of these would pay out $250,010.00.

Do any of those guys have a chance? Probably not.

Germany also won their home tournament in 1974.

And England '66. Wembley Tor and all that.

Any team with less than a 0.1% chance of winning he just rounds down to zero, so you can’t evaluate any of the real minnows by his odds.

FWIW, Silver sees us as having basically equal chances of losing in the round of 32, losing in the round of 16, and advancing further. (plus still a 2% chance of not advancing past the group). So the US at 9:2 to make the quarters, as listed, would actually be a really good bet.

I wouldn’t call either of those “over performances”. Since then the US has made the round of 16 three times and the quarterfinals once, and France has been in the final three times since, and won in 2018.

Yes, but back in 1994 there wasn’t the MLS factor yet to boost US national strength, and the US had just gone 30 years or something like that with no World Cup appearance. So Round of 16 in 1994 was pretty impressive. Today, it’s par for the course.

Nitpick: the US did actually qualify for the 1990 Cup and went quietly in the group stage. (Before that it had been 60 years)

God damn is France’s starting 11 stacked. What’s the best front 4 of all time? 1970 or 2002 Brazil? 1954 Hungary?

Another nitpick: 40 years. 1950, the year of the U.S.'s one and only competitive victory over England.

So, now there are commercial breaks and five subs instead of 3. When are they going full American-style sport? Unlimited hockey-style substitutions, commercials at various stoppage times throughout the half, each team gets a few timeouts, etc.?