# Finland and Sweden appear poised for entry to NATO {2022-05-12} **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion, breaking-news\ **Created:** [May 13, 2022, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350 "2022-05-13T03:38:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/61 "2022-05-16T20:11:26Z")
I don’t know what the founding documents or “constitution” of NATO says (outside of knowing that admission decisions must be unanimous) I was thinking something similar except that it would entail NATO forming a “special” or “sub-” membership or something in which Sweden and Finland got article 5 benefits from everyone but Turkey, and Sweden and Finland would not be obliged to support Turkey. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/62 "2022-05-16T20:12:07Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > I’d expect they’ll do a 180 at some point after a few back channel negotiations. My god I hope so. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/63 "2022-05-16T20:33:26Z")
never mind ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/64 "2022-05-16T20:40:28Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I suppose the nations other than Turkey could start a new organization for mutual defense called NNATO. Or just have individual mutual defense pacts with the UK, Canada, USA, France, Germany, Poland, etc. etc. with joint exercises continuously going. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/65 "2022-05-16T20:41:36Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > I’d expect they’ll do a 180 at some point after a few back channel negotiations. AKA, Turkey gets something they want. I get really fucking tired of countries negotiating for individual gain by essentially holding hostages. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/66 "2022-05-16T20:52:15Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Or just have individual mutual defense pacts with the UK, Canada, USA, France, Germany, Poland, etc. etc. with joint exercises continuously going. Yes, this is more or less what I was alluding to upthread, and I don’t know how doable it is but ISTM that something like that might be necessary: “I don’t know what the founding documents or “constitution” of NATO says (outside of knowing that admission decisions must be unanimous) I was thinking something similar except that it would entail NATO forming a “special” or “sub-” membership or something in which Sweden and Finland got article 5 benefits from everyone but Turkey, and Sweden and Finland would not be obliged to support Turkey.” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/67 "2022-05-16T20:56:54Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > They have basically made everything worse for themselves, and are continuing to dig the hole even deeper. At this point I think it clear that Russia would like to just secure, to some extent, the Donbas and much of the Black Sea coast. They will then declare it annexed into Russia itself, and state that Ukrainian attacks on it will constitute an attack on Russia and will be responded to with nuclear force. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/68 "2022-05-16T21:02:28Z")
I don’t think that is going to stand very well. They can declare it, but it will have no legal status. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/69 "2022-05-16T21:15:40Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > Yes, this is more or less what I was alluding to upthread, and I don’t know how doable it is but ISTM that something like that might be necessary: Looks like it’s actually already underway, at least in part: > **[Ukraine, UK, Poland announce security pact amid heightened tensions](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/17/ukraine-uk-poland-announce-security-pact-amid-heightened-tensions/)** > > The tie-up is meant to deepen Ukraine’s relationships with the two European nations in matters of cyber security, energy security and countering disinformation, said the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2022, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/70 "2022-05-16T21:16:51Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > They will then declare it annexed into Russia itself, and state that Ukrainian attacks on it will constitute an attack on Russia and will be responded to with nuclear force. This. I’m thinking that they are trying to gain more territory here, before they make the annexation formal. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2022, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/71 "2022-05-17T01:22:46Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I don’t think that is going to stand very well. They can declare it, but it will have no legal status. Like they care. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2022, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/72 "2022-05-17T01:36:09Z")
They don’t care but the World does. At least I hope it does. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2022, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/73 "2022-05-18T15:31:42Z")
# Finland and Sweden formally submit NATO membership applications [https://www.npr.org/2022/05/18/1099679338/finland-and-sweden-formally-submit-nato-membership-applications](https://www.npr.org/2022/05/18/1099679338/finland-and-sweden-formally-submit-nato-membership-applications) This may actually take a few months to happen though. Countries like the US can be slow to get this through and Turkey may put up a few roadblocks to be negotiated. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2022, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/74 "2022-05-18T17:18:16Z")
And now, from the Russian perspective, the shit has well and truly hit the fan. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2022, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/75 "2022-05-18T19:05:28Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Countries like the US can be slow to get this through Better do it before 2024, or the U.S. might be pushing to admit Russia to NATO instead. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2022, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/76 "2022-05-18T20:32:51Z")
I think I read August was fairly likely unless they expedite it by some small miracle. But I doubt we’re talking even 2023. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2022, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/77 "2022-05-19T00:00:52Z")
This will take time and horse trading. I think it probably a good thing, but mainly through the principle of deterrence. ---
**Author:** ![Pushkin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ee59a6/32.png) [@Pushkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pushkin)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2022, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/78 "2022-05-19T21:33:18Z")
> [@Seanette](#): > > If NATO decided to not allow one country to override 30 others, not a lot he could do about it. Turkey seems to be Ukraine’s best source of drones, I’ve wondered once or twice before if they might stop selling them, they could stop doing so now to put a squeeze on everyone. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2022, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/79 "2022-05-19T21:48:38Z")
If they did that, the US could just give 100 Reapers to Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350/80 "2022-05-20T02:44:39Z")
I’d be rather more worried about Turkey re-opening the Straits to international warship traffic. Ukraine has done a good job whittling down the Russian Black Sea fleet; it’d be unfortuane if Russia could make good their losses and even increase their naval presence there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/finland-and-sweden-appear-poised-for-entry-to-nato-2022-05-12/964350.md?page=5)