# First Dem debate field set **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 13, 2019, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499 "2019-06-13T22:16:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2019, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/1 "2019-06-13T22:16:47Z")
No real surprises here except maybe that Williamson made it > **[The lineup for the first 2020 Democratic debate is set | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/13/politics/2020-first-democratic-debate-lineup/index.html)** > > The Democratic National Committee announced on Thursday which 20 Democratic presidential candidates qualified for the first set of debates, providing clarity to the June matchup that will feature the first high-profile clashes of the party's... 3 guys were left out ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2019, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/2 "2019-06-13T22:58:38Z")
So if I’m reading this right, there’s two debates, each with a mix of those high and low in the polls? This sounds like it’ll be a mess. And those who get in the first debate will probably get a bigger boost. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2019, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/3 "2019-06-13T23:27:31Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > So if I’m reading this right, there’s two debates, each with a mix of those high and low in the polls? This sounds like it’ll be a mess. And those who get in the first debate will probably get a bigger boost. It’s one debate split across two evenings. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2019, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/4 "2019-06-13T23:43:58Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > It’s one debate split across two evenings. Well, that’s what they’re calling it. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/5 "2019-06-14T00:50:01Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > So if I’m reading this right, there’s two debates, each with a mix of those high and low in the polls? This sounds like it’ll be a mess. And those who get in the first debate will probably get a bigger boost. Assigned to nights by random selection. We could see Biden and Sanders who are the two leaders in the polls not debate each other. You could also see the second night being skewed toward those leading in the polls and everybody ignores the first night. It’s a tough problem. The GOP with a wide field in 2016 used straight up poll averages to rank order candidates. The debates were on the same night with the early round conflicting with a lot of meal times being those behind. The problem was that there wasn’t really a statistically significant difference between the last candidate in the main debate and most of those on the undercard. They put the frontrunners in one debate and then pretended that the meaningless differences in poll averages meant something. There was a strong element of randomness hidden behind the supposedly non-random metric they used. A candidate that couldn’t make the main debate was mostly screwed. The DNC is taking a different tack. In effect, they are giving more voice to those with lower initial name recognition and less money to juice polling to still get an early audience on the big stage. It’s a technique. It’s one that has issues. The GOP approach has issues too. I’m not sure there’s a clearly better option that makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/6 "2019-06-14T01:31:06Z")
Not completely random. Those polling 2% or higher will be split between the two nights. [https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/24/democrats-undercard-june-1344368](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/24/democrats-undercard-june-1344368) > [@](#): > > Eight candidates have a polling average at or above 2 percent right now: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. With the newly announced rule, four would be guaranteed to appear on the first night, and four would be guaranteed to appear on the second night. Not impossible to have four one night include none of Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. But at least Harris would have to be on the other card and that draw is highly unlikely. Also very unlikely to be Biden and no other of the pack aiming to be his challenger. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/7 "2019-06-14T01:36:11Z")
Having just read the article, I see the selection is not actually fully random. The top 10 and lower 10will be separately assigned to the two nights, thereby guaranteeing top 10s on both nights. > [@](#): > > NBC will divide the 20 Democrats vying to take on President Donald Trump into two groups: those with a polling average at 2% or higher and those whose polling average is under 2%. > > NBC, according to a DNC aide, will then do a random selection, dividing up the top tier and lower tier into the two nights to ensure an even mix of candidates on each debate stage. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/8 "2019-06-14T01:36:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not completely random. Thanks. I missed that around the stories that mostly focused on rules changes for inclusion in the third debate. That certainly helps the DNC intent compared to what the initial announcements were. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/9 "2019-06-14T02:25:05Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > 3 guys were left out I’m happy to drop Bullock, Messam, & Moulton. Hickenlooper, Ryan, & Bennet wouldn’t really be missed either. I think I’d be down for dropping all the boys but five. You can keep, say, Sanders, Inslee, Castro, Yang & DeBlasio. Tell the others to go home, and nothing of value would be lost. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/10 "2019-06-14T02:40:31Z")
I’ve been ninja’d many times but for some ungraspable reason this felt different. The top of my head calculation is there’s a 40% chance that the top 2 candidates are together, 12% chance of the top 3 being on the same night and a 2.4% chance of the top four directly facing off. So it should be mixed up pretty good. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/11 "2019-06-14T13:40:38Z")
**foolsguinea** , are you seriously suggesting to drop the front-runner? And leave Yang in in his place? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/12 "2019-06-14T13:54:30Z")
Yang’s got “vision”. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/13 "2019-06-14T18:03:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **foolsguinea** , are you seriously suggesting to drop the front-runner? And leave Yang in in his place? Yang is more interesting than Biden, let’s be honest. Yang would almost certainly be a \*far \*worse president than Biden, but it’s not like either of them are really going all the way, whatever they say. But fine, you can have Biden as a sixth. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/14 "2019-06-14T18:07:20Z")
Sanders, Biden and Harris in night 2 along with Yang and Mayor Pete lineups here > **[NBC announces lineup of Democrats for each night of first 2020 debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/nbc-announces-lineup-democrats-each-two-nights-first-2020-debate-n1017676)** > > To decide the matchups, candidates' names were drawn manually at NBC News' headquarters in New York. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/15 "2019-06-14T18:30:49Z")
Well, what do you know. If Warren had been night 2 it would have been all the top five there but now she is kind of stuck on the night filled solely with people polling 3% and less. It could be turned into an advantage but I have fear she’ll have trouble shining surrounded by yahoos swinging for the fences. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/16 "2019-06-14T18:37:57Z")
It’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The loud whining from the Bernie Bros has caused the DNC to do everything possible to try to avoid bias. I think the Republicans has it right with the kiddie table debates. But, it’s still just the end of June. Hopefully some of the vanity candidates will start dropping out and a few should be looking at the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/17 "2019-06-14T18:52:16Z")
the lower polling people could drop out if they look bad in the debates. or if they run out of money as well. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/18 "2019-06-14T19:26:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, what do you know. If Warren had been night 2 it would have been all the top five there but now she is kind of stuck on the night filled solely with people polling 3% and less. It could be turned into an advantage but I have fear she’ll have trouble shining surrounded by yahoos swinging for the fences. The only yahoo on night 1 is Gabbard; the rest are either weak or under-performing. I thinks she’s better off going first instead of getting crowded out by the other front runners. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/19 "2019-06-14T19:34:45Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the lower polling people could drop out if they look bad in the debates. or if they run out of money as well. IMHO the first candidates to drop out should be those who didn’t make the debate. Next should be the low polling candidates who perform poorly during the debates. I think the ideal situation would be that by the time the Iowa caucus gets here the field will be in the high single digits, then around 4 or 5 by Super Tuesday and 2 or 3 after that. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2019, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499/20 "2019-06-14T19:38:41Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The only yahoo on night 1 is Gabbard; the rest are either weak or under-performing. I thinks she’s better off going first instead of getting crowded out by the other front runners. Well it depends on what the rating numbers look like. There is a chance that a lot of people won’t watch Night 1 because Warren is the only one polling over 3% there. Whereas Night 2 has Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Buttigieg. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/first-dem-debate-field-set/835499.md?page=2)