# Five Years of Iraq: Where Do We Stand, How Do We Leave? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 19, 2008, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929 "2008-03-19T12:58:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/41 "2008-03-22T01:44:13Z")
[Sam Stone, this afternoon](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9600883&postcount=35): > [@](#): > > As for Iraq…The security and economic situation continues to improve. Hey **Sam** : if you’re going to post elsewhere about how well things are going in Iraq, care to actually defend that POV here? ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/42 "2008-03-22T09:32:59Z")
People aren’t going to like this but the only realistic solution that I can see to an end to this is to dismantle the country into its three main constituents and let the population migrate to its particular “homeland”. It IS ethnic cleansing.it IS unfair and unjust but I just cant see any other solution. I dont believe that the police will ever be trained up as a fair,honest and impartial force. And I dont believe that the religious and ethnic groups will stop murdering each other until they are physically seperated. And I dont believe that any sort of a military victory is possible. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/43 "2008-03-22T09:49:44Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] [Sam Stone, this afternoon](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9600883&postcount=35): Hey **Sam** : if you’re going to post elsewhere about how well things are going in Iraq, care to actually defend that POV here? [/QUOTE] I didn’t say things are going well. I said they are improving. And they are. Are you seriously suggesting that conditions today are worse than they were before the surge? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/44 "2008-03-22T10:38:03Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] I didn’t say things are going well. I said they are improving. And they are. Are you seriously suggesting that conditions today are worse than they were before the surge? [/QUOTE] No. But I am saying, if you’d care to read my response to you above, that in many ways, things are no better. And ‘no better’ = ‘are NOT improving,’ just to hammer home the obvious. Also, ‘_continues_ to improve’ - your actual language - implies not just improvement, but that things were already improving, and now they’re improving some more. You can’t continue something until after it’s started. So there you go again, **Sam** , making things sound better in Iraq in some other thread than you’re willing to defend in the Iraq thread. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/45 "2008-03-22T10:42:28Z")
I ran through all those metrics in Q.9 of the questionnaire. The only one where _continued_ improvement could be noted was with local schools. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/46 "2008-03-22T10:46:41Z")
[QUOTE=Lust4Life] People aren’t going to like this but the only realistic solution that I can see to an end to this is to dismantle the country into its three main constituents and let the population migrate to its particular “homeland”. It IS ethnic cleansing.it IS unfair and unjust but I just cant see any other solution. I dont believe that the police will ever be trained up as a fair,honest and impartial force. And I dont believe that the religious and ethnic groups will stop murdering each other until they are physically seperated. [/quote] The problem is, 2/3 of Iraqis want Iraq to continue to be a unified, centralized nation (see Q.13 of the [survey](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/14_03_08iraqpollmarch2008.pdf) we’ve been talking about.) Unless that 2/3 is overwhelmingly Shi’ites who want their turn to boss the Sunnis and Kurds around (which is possible, I’ll admit, the poll didn’t break down the responses by race/sect, which it should have), we’re well past the point where we can say we know better. They know the consequences better than we do; they’ve already lived those consequences. Two years ago, I argued for partition because absent partition, I fully expected we’d see the sort of violence of 2006 and the first half of 2007, but maybe _they_ couldn’t see it coming. Now it’s already happened, and if they don’t want partition, I don’t feel there’s any remaining case for imposing one on them. > [@](#): > > And I dont believe that any sort of a military victory is possible. It isn’t so much not possible, as not meaningful. This is a civil war (being fought by dirty means, rather than by massed armies), and unless we’re taking sides in it, ‘victory’ is a meaningless term for us. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/47 "2008-03-22T15:07:58Z")
I saw a reporter on the TV yesterday ,who just returned from Iraq. He says they get 1 hour of electricity every day. Every day. Man thats progress. There were demonstrations across the country due to the 5th anniversary of our quick little neocon war. How much coverage did it get in your area? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/48 "2008-03-24T17:28:39Z")
[**Iraq Global Policy Org Poll Aug 2007**](http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/resist/2007/09bbciraqipoll.pdf) (warning: PDF) Interesting findings amongst many: > [@](#): > > Q1.Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days? > > Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? > > **Quite bad/very bad: 60%, up from 29% in 2005** > > Q4 Do you think your children will have a better life than you, worse, or about the same? > > **Better 33%, Worse 42%** > > Q5 Now thinking about how things are going, not for you personally, but for Iraq as a whole, how would you say things are going in our country overall these days? Would you say things are going very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? > > **Quite bad/very bad: 78%, up from 53% in 2005** > > Q8. From today’s perspective and all things considered, was it absolutely right, somewhat right, somewhat wrong, or absolutely wrong that US-led coalition forces invaded Iraq in spring 2003? > > \*\*Absolutely Right/Somewhat Right: 37%, down from 47% in 2005 > > Somewhat Wrong/Absolutely Wrong: 63%, up from 60% in 2005\*\* > > Q9. I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate (insert item here) as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? > > \*\*The security situation > Very Good/Quite Good: 43%, down from 61% in 2005 > Very bad/quite bad: 56%, up from 38% in 2005 > > The supply of electricity > Very bad/quite bad: 93%, up from 54% in 2005 > > The availability of clean water > Very bad/quite bad: 75%, up from 42% in 2005 > > The availability of medical care > Very bad/quite bad: 67%, up from 36% in 2005 > > Your family’s economic situation > Very bad/quite bad: 63%, up from 30% in 2005 > > The availability of fuel for cooking or driving > Very bad/quite bad: 92%, down from 88% in 2005\*\* > > Q11 What about the country as a whole - in the past six months has the security situation in Iraq become better, become worse, or stayed about the same? > > **Become better 11%, Become worse 61%** > > Q12 How effective or ineffective have the reconstruction efforts been in the area where you live since the war of spring 2003? Have they been very effective, quite effective, quite ineffective, or very ineffective? > > **Quite Ineffective/Very Ineffective: 72%, up from 40% in 2005** > > Q14. I am going to name a number of organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a great deal of confidence, quite a lot of confidence, not very much confidence, or none at all? > > **US and UK occupation forces > Not very much confidence/None at all: 85%, up from 78% in 2005** > > Q16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Kamel al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister? > > **Disapprove 66%** > > Q18 Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the United States and other Coalition forces have carried out their responsibilities in Iraq? Have they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job? > > **Quite a Bad Job/A Very Bad Job: 80%, up from 59% in 2005** > > Q19 Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq? > > **Somewhat Oppose/Strongly Oppose: 79%, up from 65% in 2005** > > Q20 As you may know, the United States has increased the number of its forces in Baghdad and surrounding provinces in the past six months. For each item I name, please tell me if you think this increase of U.S. forces has made it better, made it worse, or had no effect. > > **Security in the areas where these forces have been sent > Worse: 70%, better: 18%.** > > **The pace of reconstruction in Iraq > Worse, 67%** > > Q22 Overall, do you think the presence of US forces in Iraq is making security in our country better, worse, or having no effect on the security situation? > > **Worse: 72%** > > Q23 Thinking about the political action of other people, do you find each of these items to be acceptable or not acceptable? > > **Attacks on Coalition forces: Acceptable 57%** – highlights mine. Conclusions yours to make. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/49 "2008-03-24T18:17:50Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] Are you seriously suggesting that conditions today are worse than they were before the surge? [/QUOTE] I would seriously suggest conditions today are worse than they were before the **invasion.** And all but certain to remain so for years to come. And in Iraq it’s even worse! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/50 "2008-03-24T18:32:32Z")
**Sam** would surely say that (a) that was before The Surge had had a chance to work, and (b) The Surge has improved things in Iraq; before that, the way the U.S. was doing things was fucked up, but now our approach is unfucked. One problem with that is, the war’s supporters (including **Sam** , IIRC) have been through a number of iterations of “until X months ago, American policy in Iraq was fucked up, but _now_ we’ve figured things out and are doing it right, and this time things are really truly getting better.” A second problem is that there’s no indication whatsoever that even the improvements that **Sam** cites between August and February are a step towards extricating the U.S. from the loop in Iraq. The whole point of The Surge - or so we were told; apparently we were lied to, again (I’m shocked; I bet you are too) - was that the temporary security improvements we’d provide would create a window of opportunity for _political_ reconciliation, which would be the basis for improvements in Iraq that would outlast The Surge. Now, of course, we’re being told that The Surge is a success because it’s created temporary security improvements, but we can’t withdraw many troops because then the violence would start right back up again. A third problem is that it certainly looks like the benefits of The Surge are starting to weaken. The Sunni Awakening councils whose alliance with us has been the key element in reducing Iraqi violence are quitting, going on strike, or are about to do so, because the Shi’ite-dominated police and military [are turning down their applications to enlist](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/21/iraq.alqaida). (The failure of reconciliation is putting Iraq back in the hot seat.) In Fallujah, [order is being maintained by a Saddam-style strongman](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/23/AR2008032301990.html), with our acquiescence. And [the Green Zone was being shelled for most of the day yesterday](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/23/AR2008032300339.html). A fourth problem is that the Bush (and undoubtedly the McCain) Iraq strategy is unmoored from any connection to the larger issues of our relationship with the Islamic world and our plan for quelling Islamic terrorism. (Not to mention unmoored from any constraints on money, the needs for our troops in Afghanistan and possibly elsewhere, the wearing-out of our volunteer army through successive deployments with too little rest and retraining time in between, and all the rest of that.) Our occupation of Iraq inspires the jihadists; it’s an own goal in the War on Terror. It gives them a great testing lab to try out new techniques of asymmetrical warfare; again, it’s an own goal in the War on Terror. ---
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/51 "2008-03-24T18:53:16Z")
In a feeble attempt to answer the OP: Where do we stand? Occupying a broken nation. The nation has a busted infrastructure (that we broke). The nation no longer has an “evil” dictator, which has allowed Balkan style tribalism to re-emerge. Some areas are doing pretty well compared to their lives under Saddam - the Kurds, for example. Other groups lives suck - the Sunnis who used to run the show. The Shi’ites have it both good and bad. Overall, Iraq post-Saddam sucks - but Iraq under Saddam (post the Kuwait invasion) sucked as well, but for very different reasons. The suckage is certainly worse for the average Iraqi on the street, I believe. However, some would argue the “to die a (potential) freeman” is better than “live under a dictator” point. How do we leave? Probably in bits and pieces and it will be ugly when we do. If we started a massive de-mobilization in January after swearing in Obama (for example), we would need to at least TRY to leave someone in charge with the resources to pretend to handle it. I would expect Kurdistan to come into existence pretty fast. Whether or not it would be part of some sort of an Iraqi Republic, or its own nation, is an interesting question for those still writing thesis papers in school. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/52 "2008-03-24T19:16:03Z")
Anyone notice how, just like the war was supposed to be over in a few months, so was the Surge. And how it keeps going, and going and going? I wonder how much of the improvement in Iraqi violence comes from the fact that the ethnic cleansing has already been done. They’ve eliminated the Sunni/Shia mixed neighborhoods, so there is less opportunity for one to attack the other. It is no surprise that Sadr and some of the other militias have a ceasefire while we’re there. The success of the Surge isn’t measured on the casualty rate while we’re sitting on them, but what happens when we get up. If it was so successful, we wouldn’t have to stay. I think Sam’s support of the surge is to so exhaust US forces to allow the fierce Canadian Army to come down and take over. Not that I object to that - we’d get some decent universal health coverage at last. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/53 "2008-03-24T19:17:03Z")
[QUOTE=Algher] How do we leave? [/QUOTE] Easy. Do what we always do. Declare victory and pull out. Fortunately, we got the first part out of the way five years ago, so we’re ahead of the game! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/54 "2008-03-24T19:21:03Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] I think Sam’s support of the surge is to so exhaust US forces to allow the fierce Canadian Army to come down and take over. Not that I object to that - we’d get some decent universal health coverage at last. [/QUOTE] The Canadian constitution, AFAIK, has no prohibition on the quartering of troops on civilians, and I am **not** sharing a house with somebody who eats poutine and puts maple syrup on baked beans! Besides, their beer sucks! [riot breaks out] ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/55 "2008-03-24T19:22:27Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Easy. Do what we always do. Declare victory and pull out. Fortunately, we got the first part out of the way five years ago, so we’re ahead of the game! 🙂 [/QUOTE] You pack up the tent, Brent. Ship off the tank, Frank. Get kicked in the tush, Bush … ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/56 "2008-03-24T20:47:40Z")
[QUOTE=Algher] The suckage is certainly worse for the average Iraqi on the street, I believe. However, some would argue the “to die a (potential) freeman” is better than “live under a dictator” point. [/QUOTE] One problem with that argument is that they are, if anything, less free, and likely to remain so. Women are much worse off in terms of freedom, as are gays, as are mixed Sunni/Shia couples. And, of course, they have to submit to abuse, imprisonment, abuse or murder at the hands of our troops - and I would include Blackwater thugs under the heading of “our troops”. We are the only reason they are there. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2008, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/57 "2008-03-24T21:09:57Z")
Meanwhile, [the U.S. is pressuring the Brits to have their own “surge” in Basra.](http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/sunday/2008/03/23/yanks-push-brits-for-basra-surge-98487-20359664/) ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2008, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/58 "2008-03-25T02:28:08Z")
Two part program Bush’s war on PBS. Interviews with the CIA planners . The neocons etc. Devastating. How Rumsfeld got Condi out of the loop. How he got Powell marginalized. How Chalabi got in even though many knew he was a crook, UGH ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2008, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/59 "2008-03-25T13:04:38Z")
Whoops! Looks like [things are heating up again!](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4518257) > [@](#): > > Iraqi forces clashed with Shiite militiamen Tuesday in the southern oil port of Basra and gunmen patrolled several Baghdad neighborhoods as followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered a nationwide civil disobedience campaign to demand an end to the crackdown on their movement. > > \ > > Al-Sadr has imposed a cease-fire on his militia fighters through mid-August, a move that is one of the key factors in a steep drop in violence over the past several months. But the truce is fraying. > > Lawmakers from al-Sadr’s movement announced in a Baghdad press conference that a civil disobedience campaign which began in selected neighborhoods of the capital was being expanded nationwide. > > Stores and schools were closed in several other predominantly Shiite neighborhoods in the capital, apparently in compliance with the civil disobedience order. Armed Mahdi Army members were seen patrolling the streets in some Shiite neighborhoods of the capital. > > In Basra, Iraqi soldiers and police battled Mahdi fighters for control of key neighborhoods in Iraq’s second-largest city, 340 miles southeast of Baghdad. The fighting erupted a day after al-Maliki flew there to supervise a security crackdown against the militias. Just when you thought the war was getting boring! Those whacky Iraqis, eh? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2008, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929/60 "2008-03-25T13:16:44Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Whoops! Looks like [things are heating up again!](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=4518257) Just when you thought the war was getting boring! Those whacky Iraqis, eh? 🙂 [/QUOTE] No one could have foreseen that the Surge’s benefits might be temporary. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/five-years-of-iraq-where-do-we-stand-how-do-we-leave/441929.md?page=4)