# FiveThirtyEight.com decimated by Disney layoffs **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 27, 2023, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeight-com-decimated-by-disney-layoffs/983242 "2023-04-27T01:23:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 19
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2023, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeight-com-decimated-by-disney-layoffs/983242/19 "2023-04-28T01:42:48Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > I constantly go back and forth on whether that’s smart business or criminally negligent These are not mutually exclusive options. > [@Aeschines](#): > > I lost my respect for Nate and 538 in 2016 when he had Hillary at like 95% to win not too long before the election. > > If you can be that wrong, your model is dogshit. Well, given that you are wrong (FiveThirtyEight projections never had anything near a 95% projection for Clinton, and [certainly not past November 2016 when it gave Trump a over 30% probabilty](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)) I’m sure you’ll retract the claim that the “model is dogshit”. > [@Aeschines](#): > > And, quite frankly, Nate comes off as this chirpy, kinda know-it-all twat, so I don’t have too many feels for him as he wanders away from Disney to wherever. Actual, Silver comes off as an overly qualifying, impossbile-to-pin-down ‘twat’ who hedges his assessments based upon conditional validity of the data. I’ve literally never heard him claim that a result was essential certain because of projections, because like a good statistician he always references the margins even to an absurd degree. But maybe you’ll provide a clip or quote where he makes some unlikely absolute projection about the future that I’ve never, ever heard him make. Yes? Stranger --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeight-com-decimated-by-disney-layoffs/983242)._