# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/183 "2020-10-15T05:37:10Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I gotta tell you - in terms of graphic design, this page is WAY better. You are kidding right? It looks like a Geocities webpage from 2005 or something. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/184 "2020-10-15T13:16:10Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Incidentally, the Canadian version of Fivethirtyeight, 338 (Canada has 338 electoral ridings, sort of the equivalent number to 538 EVs) has its own predictions… Wow, Texas as a tossup. Never thought I’d see the day. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/185 "2020-10-15T14:56:14Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Yes, there will be armed men at polling places in democratic districts, but that’s only a small fraction of the ugliness we’re going to see. It’s the worst part though, and will be the most effective. Shenanigans AFTER votes are cast are a bit harder to pull off, and run the risk of not being sufficient to overcome a substantial disadvantage in votes. Simply using terror to force people away from the voting booth is a much more guaranteed way of winning. It makes it a fait accompli on Election Day. To everyone who doubts this, let me ask you a question; what’s **one** reason Trump and his goons wouldn’t do this? ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/186 "2020-10-15T15:47:19Z")
I’m also worried about attacks on the election infrastructure. In addition to machine hacking, Trumpers could also try more basic actions like cutting the power at election sites. And then friendly courts refuse to extend the deadlines for voting. “Bad luck for you.” ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/187 "2020-10-15T16:11:26Z")
In a free and fair election, Trump loses. I think that’s pretty plain; however, the Republicans are doing everything they can to suppress the vote leading up to, and very likely on the election day. And the shenanigans that will happen _after_ the election are likely to be ridiculous. The problem is simply this. First and foremost, for democracy to survive every political figure must be absolutely committed to democracy. It must be better to lose democratically, then win undemocratically. Because what happens to democracy if the other side starts playing this level of so-called “hardball politics” by assaulting the democratic principles of the nation? Democracy dies. Pure and simple. Today it might be Democrats having their vote suppressed but tomorrow it could become a war to see who can suppress the vote the most. That’s not a good outcome if you value democracy. And that’s one of the big issues in the USA right now I think. There are a lot of Republican supporters who are pure and simple fascist (this doesn’t mean being a Republican makes you a fascist, just that you’re more likely to support the Republicans if you are a fascist). The only people who can extract them from the Republican party are Republicans. They need to not vote Republican for at least those Republicans that wink wink nudge nudge to the fascists the most, and the need to _write_ to those Republicans and tell them why they’re not voting for them. Until the Republican party gets obliterated in an election expect them to keep veering more and more to the (fascist) right. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/188 "2020-10-26T13:38:54Z")
Prediction is now 88% Biden. IIRC it hit that briefly but has been at 87 for quite a while. Probably moved from 87.4 to 87.6. Brian ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/189 "2020-10-26T14:11:17Z")
Biden is now up to a 38% chance of winning Texas 😀. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/190 "2020-10-26T15:56:02Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > In a free and fair election, Trump loses. I think that’s pretty plain; however, the Republicans are doing everything they can to suppress the vote leading up to, and very likely on the election day. This is key. The post above me notes 538 assigns a 38% chance to Biden to win Texas. It isn’t half that; the Republicans will cheat, and already are. 538 says Georgia is a tossup; it absolutely is not. Trump will win it; Georgia elections are no longer even pretended to be honest. Biden absolutely will be cheated there. You can color it in red. I’m not smart enough to figure out how this affect the overall chances, but those states are NOT tossups. Georgia is a Trump win without doubt, and Texas is very, very probably a Trump win. Florida, which in a fair election would be about 2-to-1 for Biden to win, is actually a tossup. Biden must win the election in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Here is the REAL current map. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/yNRBn)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/191 "2020-10-26T16:02:56Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m not smart enough to figure out how this affect the overall chances, but those states are NOT tossups. 538 actually gives you a tool to do that: [Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews) **You can set Georgia and Texas to 100% Red and it gives you Biden’s odds of winning at 74%**. Note this does have some knock-on effects you may not intend (i.e. it makes Florida and NC more likely to go Trump since it assumes they are somewhat similar to Georgia demographically). If you want to just take them off the table without having their results effect other state’s odds, I’m not sure how to do that. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/192 "2020-10-26T16:04:42Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Here is the REAL current map. I’m not sure why you’re not giving Biden Wisconsin. And then either AZ or NC puts Biden over the top, even without FL or PA. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/193 "2020-10-26T16:17:44Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The post above me notes 538 assigns a 38% chance to Biden to win Texas. It isn’t half that; the Republicans will cheat, and already are. > > 538 says Georgia is a tossup; it absolutely is not. Trump will win it; Georgia elections are no longer even pretended to be honest. Biden absolutely will be cheated there. You can color it in red. Here’s a slope chart that compares debiased implied probabilities from PredictIt to 538 probabilities for swing states. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/ABLVV843C1j3eDh6CZAEyd8iEqBxLgqfWyEFoKkVb3ePjKRSoH7Pv08jp2UuNpI0wVMGz_dzkZxhmrAZ0C5t-qOz9SXji8_yP7uMh3ahZWO1jyA1jCe2iWQ=w455-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/MMDofkqQ2nWRHK9z5) PredictIt is consistently more Trump leaning than 538 pretty much across the board. One theory for this is that the market is pricing in electoral shenanigans that Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/194 "2020-10-26T16:23:32Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > PredictIt is consistently more Trump leaning than 538 pretty much across the board. Prediction markets seem more aligned with the poll results that ask “who do you think will win?”. Those consistently give better results than the “who will you personally vote for?” question. The public seems to believe that Trump has a much better chance than the polls alone would give him. Whether that is a bias towards the incumbent, fears related to bad polling in 2016, shy voter effects, or concerns about the fairness of the election is hard to tease out. It’s probably a combination of all of the above. Hell, my analytic brain thinks all of the numbers point to at least a 90% chance Biden wins. But I don’t think I’d take odds any higher than 2-to1 at this point, and would probably hold out for an even-money bet. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/195 "2020-10-26T16:26:52Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Whether that is a bias towards the incumbent, fears related to bad polling in 2016, shy voter effects, or concerns about the fairness of the election is hard to tease out. It’s probably a combination of all of the above. Agreed. It is almost certainly a combination of a bunch of things. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/196 "2020-10-26T16:33:32Z")
Also… I’ll take this moment to plug my own thread. If you think you have a better understanding of which states are going to swing which way than the average bear, there’s a just for fun contest right here on the SDMB where you can put that to the test. [October 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/197 "2020-10-26T18:29:07Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I’m not sure why you’re not giving Biden Wisconsin. That’s an error. ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/198 "2020-10-26T20:21:29Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I’m not sure why you’re not giving Biden Wisconsin. For that matter, Maine 2 or Nebraska 2. Both of these are just barely in Biden’s column right now. They may not matter much overall (1 EV each), but in the event that Biden fails to pick up PA, FL, or NC, but gets AZ instead, it’s going to come down to one of these. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/199 "2020-10-27T13:27:51Z")
Back up to 88%, with Georgia once again blue, largely on the strength of a single +5 poll in GA. Keep it up! GA came awfully close in '18, with the GOP scrambling to fix it against the Democrats. If enough people vote Biden, they won’t be able to fix it again. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/200 "2020-10-27T15:26:56Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If enough people vote Biden, they won’t be able to fix it again. I’m quite confident that the Republican plan for Georgia (and all the other swing states) is to hope that Trump is ahead in the counting at some point on November 3, and then suddenly force a stop to the voting. Then appeal this all the way to the Supreme court, who will (of course) vote in favor of stopping the counting of any additional ballots (ie all the mail in ballots) because of “fraud” or “irregularity” or whatever other fig-leaf they can think up. This is, I think, their play. They will then (or even on Nov 3) start to destroy mail in ballots as fast as they can. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/201 "2020-10-27T15:32:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Back up to 88%, with Georgia once again blue, largely on the strength of a single +5 poll in GA. Keep it up! GA came awfully close in '18, with the GOP scrambling to fix it against the Democrats. If enough people vote Biden, they won’t be able to fix it again. Nate really needs to add a “gray” to the state forecasts. GA has been a toss-up for almost two weeks now, but it keeps flipping between red and blue. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/202 "2020-10-27T15:38:55Z")
They may well try. If the lead is big enough, it won’t matter. We’ll see. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=11)