# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/223 "2020-10-27T22:01:30Z")
Nate Silver says to ignore early voting data, because it can be extremely deceptive. Early voting data isn’t part of his model at all. The one exception, according to Silver (and others), for early voting data, is data from Nevada and reported by Jon Ralston (of Ralston Reports), who has figured out the voodoo of Nevada early voting and is pretty much the only person in the entire country who can reliably glean useful prediction data from early voting numbers (but only in Nevada!). ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/224 "2020-10-27T22:04:11Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Late-arriving ballots skew disproportionately Democratic Not your soundbite but, assuming it’s true, what is the dynamic that drives this? The DEM demographic is more urban, the GOP more regional. Does US Post provide a faster delivery for regional mail? Does US Post provide a faster delivery service for GOP ballots? And is this phenomenon a historical parameter which may well not apply in 2020 due to the heightened “Get Out the Vote” and general awareness of mail-in voting in a COVID world? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/225 "2020-10-27T22:14:57Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Not your soundbite but, assuming it’s true, what is the dynamic that drives this? I should have included their link to the discussion of this. Essentially, it’s unknown but the article presents a few hypotheses: - More of the late votes are late because they are provisional, meaning there was some minor flaw or question about the voter’s registration that must be resolved before they are counted. These tend to be newer voters, and new voters trend Democratic. - Democratic voter drives tend to be shortly before Election Day - Young voters tend to vote later, and also trend Democratic > **[Why Do the Last Votes Counted Skew Democratic?](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/why-do-the-last-votes-counted-skew-democratic.html)** > > The “blue shift” in results that Trump will call fraudulent likely comes from provisional ballots and late Democratic voting by mail. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/226 "2020-10-27T22:21:13Z")
I apologize for my hijack, I attribute to my being terrified that we’ll have 4 more years of that clown and Mitch’s gang of whores, and horrified that it might be close enough to come down to challenged lae votes, “hanging chads” and the like. I truly wish various steps were taken to increase voter participation. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/227 "2020-10-27T22:29:25Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I truly wish various steps were taken to increase voter participation. They have been. We’re on track for the highest turnout since 1908. The problem this year is not with who is or isn’t voting. The problem is with who is counting the votes and those that call the shots for the vote counters. They go by names like Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/228 "2020-10-27T23:00:18Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I really do have to wonder where that money went. Ha ha! You know the answer to this as well as I do. When your campaign and party is full of grifters and con-artists, don’t be surprised when they siphon off your campaign funds into their own pockets… (ETA: not YOUR party, but you know what I mean) ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/229 "2020-10-28T00:24:07Z")
Note that many states, such as Michigan and Texas, do not register voters by party. You can see that if you click on “registered party” for the particular states. TargetSmart tries to use other data to form its “modeled party” data. Whether that algorithm is valid is questionable. It’s actually sort of creepy. TargetSmart claims to have data on every single registered voter in the country, such as age, religion, music tastes, etc. They use that to predict what party you would most likely associate with. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/230 "2020-10-28T01:05:49Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > > [@asahi](#): > > > > I really do have to wonder where that money went. > > Ha ha! You know the answer to this as well as I do. > > When your campaign and party is full of grifters and con-artists, don’t be surprised when they siphon off your campaign funds into their own pockets… I would not be surprised to learn Trump has read the writing on the wall and determined to save some money to pay for lawyers either to finance legal challenges to ballots – or more likely, to defend himself against criminal charges after he leaves office. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/231 "2020-10-28T01:15:06Z")
I do think that Trump’s kickbacks will be huuuuuge! ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/232 "2020-10-28T01:38:00Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Having sent my ballot in I don’t know how many weeks ago, it drives me nuts that anyone wouldn’t have exerted the MINIMAL effort required to ensure that their ballot got received in plenty of time. I’ll one-up you on this one. Voting by mail in a year where the the wannabe dictator and his party are clearly attempting to disenfranchise mail in ballots as a tactic is negligent. You should’ve been voting in person. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/233 "2020-10-28T01:59:36Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Not your soundbite but, assuming it’s true, what is the dynamic that drives this? Democrats are more likely to take the pandemic seriously and vote by mail. Mail votes are much more likely to have late arrivals and other problems than in-person voting. Republicans are much more likely to not think the virus is real, not think that trying to prevent other people from getting sick matters, who feel a cult-like devotion to make an event out of going to vote for their cult leader, to stick with what they’re used to rather than trying something new (this goes for both conservatism and old people), and in some cases, to understand how it is their party plans to suppress the vote and therefore be sure to go and make sure their vote counts. I think the democrats are being negligent on this issue. Voting is worth risking the pandemic, and we know Trump and the Republican party are going to fuck with absentee votes. Trump has been calling them fraudulent and wrong this entire time, and he tried to, and partially succeeded, in destroying the fucking post office to make this goal happen. And STILL people are encouraging others to vote by mail. Fuck that. You have a far higher chance of successfully being suppressed and flat out disenfranchised by voting by mail. Go vote in person, whether it be early or on election day. ---
**Author:** ![gnarator](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gnarator/32/8266_2.png) [@gnarator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnarator)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/234 "2020-10-28T02:01:05Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I really do have to wonder where that money went. Do his donors even ask questions? Well, I’ve seen several reports about money problems lately: > **[How Trump’s Billion-Dollar Campaign Lost Its Cash Advantage (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/us/politics/trump-election-campaign-fundraising.html)** > > Five months ago, President Trump’s re-election campaign had a huge financial edge over Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s. The Times conducted an extensive review of how the Trump team spent lavishly to show how that advantage evaporated. > **[Trump’s Cash Crunch Limits His Options and Prompts Finger-Pointing (Published...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/us/politics/trump-campaign-money.html)** > > With far less money than anticipated, campaign officials are scrambling to address a severe financial disadvantage against Joseph R. Biden Jr., producing something of an internal blame game. > **[The Trump Campaign Reportedly Blew $1 Billion on Private Jet Rides,...](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/10/trump-campaign-cash-woes)** > > Now it can’t even afford to air ads in key swing states. In short, they wasted it. In addition, there are several PACs raising money “for President Trump,” who basically just pocket he cash: > **[Trump campaign plagued by groups raising tens of millions in his name](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/23/trump-campaign-compete-against-groups-money-089454)** > > Outside entities are raising huge money in Trump's name, despite disavowals from the campaign, and spending little of it on 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/235 "2020-10-28T02:19:16Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I’m often dismayed at “the most vulnerable and disengaged” persons failure to make the smallest effort. Up with empathy!!! ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/236 "2020-10-28T03:20:14Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Democrats are more likely to take the pandemic seriously and vote by mail. Am unsure whether this maxim holds but even if it did, that’s patently a 2020 observation and it doesn’t provide any explanation to the fact (thanks to @TroutMan) that late-arriving ballots skew DEM has been in effect since 2004 with the smoking gun being the Help America Vote Act of 2002. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/237 "2020-10-28T03:22:05Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The important ones right now are the battleground states, where early voting is nearly tied between registered Republicans and Democrats. Note that just because someone is registered Republican does not mean they voted for Trump. > > In the Battlegrohnds so far we’re not seeing the kind of huge lead in early voting for Democrats that was projected to occur. [We can read what the head of the company says](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/early-vote-2020-election/2020/10/27/ce31f7ba-17b2-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html): > [@](#): > > “The early vote is showing two things: We’re clearly headed to record-level turnout, nationally and likely in just about every state,” said Tom Bonier, the head of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm. “And it’s clearly showing us that Democrats are highly engaged and will be themselves setting record levels of turnout.” > > Bonier emphasized that Republicans are also motivated to vote. “The open question,” he said, “is whether that level of Republican engagement and enthusiasm can match or exceed [that of] Democrats. That’s the part of the equation that we can’t solve until Election Day.” ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/238 "2020-10-28T03:26:43Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > I think the democrats are being negligent on this issue. Voting is worth risking the pandemic, and we know Trump and the Republican party are going to fuck with absentee votes. Trump has been calling them fraudulent and wrong this entire time, and he tried to, and partially succeeded, in destroying the fucking post office to make this goal happen. And STILL people are encouraging others to vote by mail. Fuck that. You have a far higher chance of successfully being suppressed and flat out disenfranchised by voting by mail. Go vote in person, whether it be early or on election day. I went back and forth on this. First off, my wife is high-risk, and I really don’t want her waiting in line when we are experiencing the spike in cases we are currently seeing. I also don’t want me or my son giving it to her. Another concern is something going wrong between now and Election Day, such as one of us getting sick in the next week (since there is a pandemic going on), or getting hit by a bus, to potential issues on Election Day like long lines, protests, “poll watchers,” or other shenanigans, or finding out my voting registration has a problem. We don’t have early voting in person in my state. They are allowing absentee ballots for all voters due to Covid-19, but I made a point of returning both the application and the ballot using the official ballot drop box in my town…so no dependence on the post office. If I lived in a swing state, that might have pushed me to reconsider this decision, but Connecticut is solidly blue, so that was a factor as well. Last but not least, there was the strong desire to get this out of the way. I’m so tired about fretting about this vote. I’ve never missed an election, though it has been close some years. I used to travel for work, and remember trying to make it to the polls before they closed. Of all years, I don’t want a repeat of that. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/239 "2020-10-28T05:28:39Z")
Everyone needs to decide for themselves what risk they’re willing to make. You can’t make a blanket statement. My parents are in their 80s, and not in the best of health. They haven’t been out in public since March. They mailed their ballots. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/240 "2020-10-28T05:56:03Z")
Nate Silver talked about the risks of voting by mail, and he noted that there are risks both ways. Chiefly, a vote by mail is infinitely superior to voting in person if one definitely isn’t going to vote in person (and there are such people). It might even be vastly superior if there’s even a chance of not voting in person on election day, whether sure to weather, illness, or even just laziness. The risks for voting by mail are as you suggest, but it goes both ways. If the Democrats get tons of votes that they otherwise wouldn’t get at all because vote by mail is available, then it will have been a huge boon. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/241 "2020-10-28T06:25:59Z")
> [@robby](#): > > …I’ve never missed an election, though it has been close some years. I used to travel for work, and remember trying to make it to the polls before they closed. Of all years, I don’t want a repeat of that. Actually, I take that back. I don’t think I’ve ever missed a _presidential_ election, but I did miss a local election that I fully intended to vote in a couple of years ago. I had a mental lapse and drove straight home from work instead of going to the polls before they closed. I only remembered when my wife asked me if I had voted, but the polls had just closed, so it was too late. My preferred candidate won, but it was a close vote…the winning margin was only about 60 votes. I would have kicked myself if my failure to vote had cost them the election. One think I will say about voting absentee is that all of the paperwork is a bit of a pain in the neck. With in-person voting you just show up and vote. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/242 "2020-10-28T11:59:15Z")
It went to 89% this morning. Has it been that high for Biden since the forecast came out? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=13)