# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/263 "2020-10-29T03:35:45Z")
Which sometimes (and more likely than not) will be before the election, but 1/7 of the time the election will be on the 2nd, and the first Sunday is the 7th. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/264 "2020-10-29T03:59:23Z")
> [@glowacks](#): > > It’s not hard to reconcile at all. One of them is an outlier. The +/-3% typical margin is usually a 95% confidence interval. You should expect 5% of polls conducted fairly to be way off base. **And yet fivethirtyeight is not treating the ABC/WaPo poll as simply an outlier** : > That said, ABC News/Washington Post is definitely an outlier; no other poll has shown Biden with that large a lead in Wisconsin since June. (Then, it was a [Hodas & Associates poll](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/448/attachments/original/1593026421/Banners_WI_June2020_Crosstabs.pdf) sponsored by the conservative Restoration PAC that put Biden 17 points ahead.) > > **On the other hand, this poll doesn’t exactly exist in a vacuum. Biden has recently gotten a lot of very strong polls from some of the states that _border_ Wisconsin**. [bolding mine] [To wit](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/): **Iowa:** > " Last week, the A+ pollsters [Monmouth University](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_102120.pdf/) and [Siena College/The New York Times Upshot](https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ia101820-crosstabs/1eff04c308f3dcb1/full.pdf) found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, [our forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/iowa/) now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip **Minnesota** : > - Yesterday, [Gravis Marketing](https://gravismarketing.com/minnesota-poll-results/) released a survey of **Minnesota** in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s [chances of winning Minnesota](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/) have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100. > > **Michigan** : > > On Sunday, we also got a [Gravis poll](https://gravismarketing.com/michigan-poll-results-2020/) of **Michigan** that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s [Fox News poll](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-17-20-2020_Complete_Michigan_Topline_October-21-Release.pdf) of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a [94 in 100 chance of winning](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/michigan/) the Wolverine State Don’t simply dismiss the ABC/WaPo poll as an outlier. There’s more to it than that. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/265 "2020-10-29T04:00:46Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > We are now, but we won’t be by Tuesday. We go off DST early on Sunday morning. A pertinent xkcd from today about the election and time change: [Fall Back](https://xkcd.com/2378/) “I don’t think the endless 24-hour news cycle has been good for either of us.” “Well, then I have good news about Sunday!” “Ughhh…” ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/266 "2020-10-29T04:13:49Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > Don’t simply dismiss the ABC/WaPo poll as an outlier. It’s known that the +17 likely overstates things, since they oversampled Clinton voters significantly, or at least people that claimed that they voted for her. Apparently it’s more like +12 accounting for that. That puts in basically within 2 MoE of the other one, which is reconcilable to say the real margin is +8/9. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/267 "2020-10-29T04:33:28Z")
Do you have a link to the 2016 ABC/WaPo poll that oversampled Clinton voters, and could you please explain why you’re so sure they’re making the same mistake now? FiveThirtyEight is pretty good at teasing out that sort of thing. If you haven’t read their article on the Wisconsin poll, you really should. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/268 "2020-10-29T06:26:19Z")
The sample in THIS poll happened to include more people who (at least claim to) have voted for Clinton in 2016 than you’d expect, based on the proportion of actual Clinton voters in 2016. I’ll let someone else find the cite; I’m just clarifying what was meant by “oversampled.” ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/269 "2020-10-29T10:08:13Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Florida - polls close at 8pm eastern. Officials are allowed to process early-arriving mail ballots starting weeks before the election. So results should be coming in fairly fast for these early ballots. 538 has Florida at 62% probability of Biden win. I suspect that Cheato has lost Florida with his drumbeat of “don’t worry be happy” dismissal of the COVID pandemic (and the obvious “sacrifice Granny to the golden calf of Wall Street” corollary). ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/270 "2020-10-29T13:14:40Z")
89%, and the top maps now have 2 red instead of 3 Brian ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/271 "2020-10-29T13:15:55Z")
For a moment it was Trump 10% and Biden 89% (I think the threshold between “favored” and “clearly favored” will be when Biden hits 90% or 91%) ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/272 "2020-10-29T14:15:05Z")
I admit, as silly as it is, I am eagerly awaiting the moment (if it comes) when Biden becomes “clearly favored” to win. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/273 "2020-10-29T14:29:46Z")
Me, too, but just don’t let it make you complacent! ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/274 "2020-10-29T14:33:17Z")
It was mentioned in a podcast – 50-54 Toss Up 55-69 Slightly Favored 70-89 Favored 90-97 Clearly Favored 98+ Very Likely Brian ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/275 "2020-10-29T14:33:31Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Me, too, but just don’t let it make you complacent! Two weeks after the election: News commentator: “With most of the in-person, advance and mail-in ballots counted, it looks like Joe Biden has captured over 400 electoral votes.” Nervous Democrats: “We can’t get complacent!” 😀 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/276 "2020-10-29T14:34:23Z")
This is the right attitude. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/277 "2020-10-29T14:49:46Z")
I will be happy to be accused of complacency… once President Biden is sworn in. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/278 "2020-10-29T15:09:06Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Two weeks after the election: > > News commentator: “With most of the in-person, advance and mail-in ballots counted, it looks like Joe Biden has captured over 400 electoral votes.” > > Nervous Democrats: “We can’t get complacent!” Ain’t gonna be complacent till he’s sworn in. (Am hoping to be significantly relieved by sometime next week, though.) ETA: And have already voted. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/279 "2020-10-29T15:21:14Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I will be happy to be accused of complacency… once President Biden is sworn in. I agree that until he is sworn in, I will be very nervous Did you guys see H. Clinton is in the electoral college for NY? She gets to vote Biden! ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/280 "2020-10-29T15:34:05Z")
Do not become complacent even after Biden is sworn in. We have four years of metaphorically going house to house clearing Nazi cells lurking within our government. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/281 "2020-10-29T15:40:05Z")
[My hope is this becomes the case.](https://imgur.com/gallery/4vMcJNv) ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/282 "2020-10-29T16:22:40Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > Save your worries for Pennsylvania – Trump is twice as likely (14% vs 7%) to win there vs. WI according to 538. This. In addition, making up for Pennsylvania is harder than making up for Wisconsin. Making up for PA would take something like AZ and NC, while making up for WI would take AZ or NC. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=15)