# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/303 "2020-10-29T23:03:02Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Do you actually think anyone here is unaware of that? > > As has been said, Biden’s chances are much better than that, polling has improved, and even assuming the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016 still gives Biden the win. In addition, the trending has been towards Biden over the last four weeks. It was going the other way last time. Also, there are significantly fewer undecideds now so the error bars should be smaller. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/304 "2020-10-29T23:08:08Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > In addition, the trending has been towards Biden over the last four weeks. It was going the other way last time. Also, there are significantly fewer undecideds now so the error bars should be smaller. And the MAGAsphere’s “[make the other guy radioactive](https://www.axios.com/inside-the-trump-campaigns-plan-of-attack-03364e8d-99ea-418b-b6e7-510c117dc0bf.html)” tactics aren’t getting any traction outside the MAGAsphere. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/305 "2020-10-30T00:18:00Z")
But, but, there’s e-mails again! Why isn’t that working?!? ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/306 "2020-10-30T00:19:27Z")
> [@jaycat](#): > > For those putting faith in [538’s prediction](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/). Did you even read the OP that I wrote? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/307 "2020-10-30T00:28:27Z")
> [@jaycat](#): > > For those putting faith in [538’s prediction](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/). Holy shit! Clinton lost? Big, if true. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/308 "2020-10-30T00:31:33Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > Did you even read the OP that I wrote? Too much of a downer. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/309 "2020-10-30T01:16:34Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > In addition, the trending has been towards Biden over the last four weeks. It was going the other way last time. Also, there are significantly fewer undecideds now so the error bars should be smaller… The “fewer undecideds” is a huge factor. In 2016, the last minute bullshit FBI “Investigation Announcement” flipped quite a few of these. No such thing is happening this year. Also also; 2016 turnout was 55.7%. This year is projected to be significantly higher. Higher turnout will generally favor the Democrats (if all the votes are actually counted) Also also also; in 2016, 5.7% of the vote went to “other” candidates. I predict that will be smaller this year - closer to the 1.4% in the 2008 election. I’d say closer to 2%. In my opinion, in 2016, many of these were folks that hated Hilary enough to vote “other”. This year, those folks will not make that mistake again. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/310 "2020-10-30T01:45:46Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The “fewer undecideds” is a huge factor. In 2016, the last minute bullshit FBI “Investigation Announcement” flipped quite a few of these. No such thing is happening this year. Well, there is the incredible increase in the number of covid cases in the US; that might move the needle some. In the last 7 days before the election, more than half a million Americans will be diagnosed with Covid-19. Today we had over 91,000 new cases. I had a thought today: can you imagine how kids 14–17 feel right now about living in the US? Can you imagine the anger that will seethe if Trump is re-elected and continues to do nothing about the pandemic, ensuring that these kids aren’t just robbed of their environment, they are robbed of their very futures? The backlash that comes to this round of GOP shenanigans is going to be tremendous when it manifests. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/311 "2020-10-30T02:08:18Z")
The crazy part is - Trump is actually killing his own supporters by getting them to congregate in large groups without masks, in contravention of solid advice from medical experts. He’s killing his own voters. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/312 "2020-10-30T03:10:51Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The crazy part is - Trump is actually killing his own supporters by getting them to congregate in large groups without masks When he’s not freezing or baking them. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/313 "2020-10-30T03:16:59Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The “fewer undecideds” is a huge factor. In 2016, the last minute bullshit FBI “Investigation Announcement” flipped quite a few of these. No such thing is happening this year. It flipped me. I was still a devoted Republican at the time but had decided to bite the bullet and vote for one of my least favorite candidates, HRC. Then the investigation announcement gave me pause. I figured they must REALLY know something bad to telegraph an investigation so close to the actual election. Fooled me. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He’s killing his own voters. Yes, but not before November 3rd! I keep telling Republicans that Trump wrote a book called "_To Serve Mankind_ but no knows whats in it. Because it is a cookbook!!! Can you imagine what a good episode of The Twilight Zone Trump’s presidency would make? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/314 "2020-10-30T03:22:30Z")
Its ratings would be _yuuuuge_. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/315 "2020-10-30T03:27:26Z")
In related news, I wandered over to the Princeton Election Consortium. You might all recall Sam Wang, who runs it, got famous in 2016 for saying it was over and he’d eat a bug if Trump won, and that Nate Silver was a stupid idiot for giving Trump a chance and clearly some baseball nerd wasn’t smart enough to understand math. He no longer will commit to percentages, but if you read his graphs, he’s got Biden somewhere between 95 and 99 percent. Sam, Sam, Sam. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/316 "2020-10-30T03:31:47Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > Can you imagine what a good episode of The Twilight Zone Trump’s presidency would make? Anthony Fremont as an adult with severely diminished powers. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/317 "2020-10-30T03:33:07Z")
**Mahaloth** , I don’t recall which thread it was, but I picked up the Katherine Stewart book you recommended from the library yesterday. Looking forward to reading it in good old hardcover printed fashion, thank you again for recommending it. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/318 "2020-10-30T05:08:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You might all recall Sam Wang, who runs it, got famous in 2016 for saying it was over and he’d eat a bug if Trump won, and that Nate Silver was a stupid idiot for giving Trump a chance and clearly some baseball nerd wasn’t smart enough to understand math. Did he eat the bug tho? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/319 "2020-10-30T05:14:13Z")
Yep. > **[Poll expert eats bug after being wrong about Trump | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/12/politics/pollster-eats-bug-after-donald-trump-win/index.html)** > > A poll expert who had said that he would "eat a bug" if Donald Trump exceeded 240 electorate votes made good on his promise Saturday.. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/320 "2020-10-30T05:15:40Z")
> [@friedo](#): > > Did he eat the bug tho? [Yes.](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwimp_uMx9vsAhVSvZ4KHYTTCoEQtwIwAHoECAYQAg&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fvideos%2Fpolitics%2F2016%2F11%2F12%2Fpollster-eats-bug-after-trump-win-smerconish.cnn&usg=AOvVaw3q1LncDsixu2-Uj9XI7Yf8) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/321 "2020-10-30T05:23:41Z")
I win! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/322 "2020-10-30T13:20:45Z")
@Northern_Piper: I like your new icon. His Trumply Dudeliness was here in So FL campaigning until yesterday. Not much evidence he made a dent. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=17)