# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/323 "2020-10-30T13:51:02Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I had a thought today: can you imagine how kids 14–17 feel right now about living in the US? Can you imagine the anger that will seethe if Trump is re-elected and continues to do nothing about the pandemic, ensuring that these kids aren’t just robbed of their environment, they are robbed of their very futures? The backlash that comes to this round of GOP shenanigans is going to be tremendous when it manifests. Imagine it? I live with 4 teens 16-18. Trust me, they’re not happy with **any** of us. Frankly, I’m concerned they’re going to implement a “Logan’s Run” society in a decade or so. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/324 "2020-10-30T13:56:43Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > It flipped me. I was still a devoted Republican at the time but had decided to bite the bullet and vote for one of my least favorite candidates, HRC. I did not vote for Obama\* in either election, but voting for Clinton in 2016 was essential to me. I did not love _either_ Clinton, but I never questioned their loyalty to the United States. \*Ultimately, he was great. I do think Romney would have done well, though. I could legit vote for a Obama-Romney ticket. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/325 "2020-10-30T14:42:20Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > Trust me, they’re not happy with **any** of us. Frankly, I’m concerned they’re going to implement a “Logan’s Run” society in a decade or so. Pretty sure I could come up with plenty of worse things - including continuing under Trump/Mitch. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/326 "2020-10-30T14:44:03Z")
I guess I’ll see you at Carousel then. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/327 "2020-10-30T14:50:25Z")
Renew! Renew! ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/328 "2020-10-30T14:52:35Z")
I once worked in a building that had an office with a sign on the door that said “Non-renewal Unit”. It worried me. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/329 "2020-10-30T15:26:32Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > Imagine it? I live with 4 teens 16-18. Trust me, they’re not happy with **any** of us. Frankly, I’m concerned they’re going to implement a “Logan’s Run” society in a decade or so. Interesting; during the conversation I had where the thought first occurred to me, I also invoked _Logan’s Run_ in describing the backlash. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/330 "2020-10-30T15:28:43Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > I like your new icon. Thanks. Took me a while to find a drawing. Photos of pipes don’t scale well. ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/331 "2020-10-30T15:31:21Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > Imagine it? I live with 4 teens 16-18. Trust me, they’re not happy with **any** of us. Frankly, I’m concerned they’re going to implement a “Logan’s Run” society in a decade or so. Yeah, my daughter is more than a little fed up with being sold down the river by the older generations… I should probably not introduce her to Logan’s Run… ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/332 "2020-10-30T15:37:01Z")
At first it looks like a 7-yo’s drawing of a Dr. Seuss hummingbird. I thought maybe it was something your kid drew that you thought was cute. In the larger version shown in the pop-up when somebody clicks on the avatar it’s obvious what it really is. Especially given the context of your name and what many of us know about your musical history. Best of all it’s highly distinctive. Once we know what it is, it’ll stand nicely as your visual identity. Unlike the pinkish-purple [![](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e495f1/20.png) ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e495f1/20.png) that Discourse assigned me. If there’d been any poetic justice to that decision, it’d be a light gray L on a less-light gray square; that’s me: gray. [![](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/D0D0D0/20.png) ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/D0D0D0/20.png) ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/333 "2020-10-30T16:06:13Z")
[Trump is down to 10% while Biden is still holding at 89%.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/) Just a little further … ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/334 "2020-10-30T16:10:06Z")
We only have a few days. Is 90-10 the final prediction? Or does it blow up the last day? I thought he kept saying the “same day” chances would be lower. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/335 "2020-10-30T16:14:20Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I thought he kept saying the “same day” chances would be lower. Uh, lower for Trump I mean. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/336 "2020-10-30T16:14:33Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > At first it looks like a 7-yo’s drawing of a Dr. Seuss hummingbird. Yeah - I thought bird or insect at first as well. Then I thought of your name and ! ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/337 "2020-10-30T16:23:29Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > Imagine it? I live with 4 teens 16-18. Trust me, they’re not happy with **any** of us. Frankly, I’m concerned they’re going to implement a “Logan’s Run” society in a decade or so. They better get a move on, in the book the age cut off was 21 😉. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/338 "2020-10-30T16:39:54Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > We only have a few days. Is 90-10 the final prediction? Or does it blow up the last day? I thought he kept saying the “same day” chances would be lower. I think they’ll keep changing it as last minute polls come in. I don’t expect any more huge changes, but you never know. It looks like Wisconsin just pegged hard for Biden, so it’s possible. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/339 "2020-10-30T16:41:30Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > Whoa, I just noticed they updated the ECV count. If you adjust all polls by the 2016 error rate Biden wins 335 votes. That’s up from 280 yesterday. That’s a good trend. A simple linear extrapolation would give Biden 555 EVs on election day. That would be a victory like no one’s ever seen! ---
**Author:** ![tripthicket](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripthicket/32/297_2.png) [@tripthicket](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tripthicket)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/340 "2020-10-30T16:49:08Z")
I personally am making three bets with myself: Biden wins the popular vote by more than 10 million votes; Biden wins the EC with over 400 votes; Trump doesn’t get more than 150 EC votes. Sure, it’s counting chickens, but a guy can dream, eh? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/341 "2020-10-30T16:57:49Z")
Actually, I’ve confused it once with **Colibri’s** humming bird! ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/342 "2020-10-30T17:20:50Z")
No family tartan on your bag? (signed, digs… whose clan tartan is so horrendous that I’ve only worn it once as a joke 😪) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=18)