# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/363 "2020-10-31T03:52:19Z")
538 now has Biden winning in 90% of their model runs. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/364 "2020-10-31T04:55:37Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Not a freakin’ chance. McCain really wanted to name Joe Lieberman as his running mate in 2008 as a bipartisan gesture (and because Lieberman was one of his best friends in the Senate, although a Dem) just eight years after Lieberman had been Al Gore’s running mate. McCain was strongly warned by his top aides - correctly, I think - that he’d have a floor fight at the GOP convention if he did ( _Game Change_ by Halperin and Heilemann has an excellent account of this). Hillary was and is absolutely toxic to the Republican base. No way in hell McCain would ever invited her to be his running mate. I see we disagree here. I do agree Lieberman was his first choice, but that his Republican handlers steered him to the right and played to the base because they were (and still are) idiots who insist upon preaching primarily to the choir and never trying to bring in new converts. It was obvious to me after his Lieberman idea was vetoed that he wanted a woman so both parties would be representing record breaking ‘inclusive’ candidates. He routinely referred to HRC as a very good friend and colleague in the Senate both before and after Palin was selected. I believe he wanted Clinton for a similar reason to Lieberman, to capture Democratic votes as a moderate who embraces the opposition party. The RNC fucked that right up because they . . . well, sometimes Republicans can be caught up in the previous contest rather than the current contest. Sure, Clinton comes with opposition. What is more she might inspire some on the far right to stay home rather than support this ticket. But she was at the top of the Democratic primary contenders and she came with LOTS of devoted followers (among her detractors). The thing is – this is the Justice League, this is The Avengers, this is two (moderate) powerhouses from opposing parties joining forces. This synergy that is unimaginable!!! Last point, McCain was famous for this kind of stunt. Whenever he wanted to introduce a new bill, he would find the most liberal Democratic Senator to co-sponsor it. If you make a timeline from when McCain locked up the R. nomination, until Obama locked up the D. nomination, and you look at the news reports from that span it fits perfectly. You know McCain wanted a Democratic running mate (well former Democrat by then). Is it so hard to believe he would select the most visible one available? She came with plenty of upside too. The sad thing is if they had let him open the tent a bit, the Republican Party might not be the (and I say this as a registered Republican with an ingrained conservative bias) evil pile of shit it has become. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/365 "2020-10-31T06:33:04Z")
Well! Each student had to pick three states to declare either for Biden or Trump, and give a plausible story for their choice (e.g., “Nevada to Trump because more urban Hispanics than expected turn out to be assimilated into the overall men-without-college-degrees Trumpian ethos, like many small-town ones…”), and then make an observation about how this affected the likelihood of who wins the presidency, and also observe how and why the model updated to switch some OTHER state’s chances. It led to fruitful discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/366 "2020-10-31T12:01:10Z")
Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/367 "2020-10-31T13:17:54Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > 538 now has Biden winning in 90% of their model runs. It’s 89% now, but I have a feeling this is how it is. Trump has a 10% legit chance and his cheating might make that 11-25% chance? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/368 "2020-10-31T14:53:44Z")
2016 three days out. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a7BIslYdIRBnreSzrk1IfrasqVnL14mQ5kBiD6bTVZyRGn8zFw-o8M9dGwvGW6dQKoIFMq_-qSJ8zN5hxLxGa6_Kf5v21ivsRU-38-sVhLxyzeQXrYTunZxHDeKOEmjcBQVwICek4Q=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/oW7EKkQF2T2adtgGA) 2020 three days out. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/nBiAxkE2JKnDf3P6ObQbhQQL2s4aVtkKMcOMAiZT1ELgkL9LsdBAxpMC_lGLBLd9VgVl8y0rRvJu89thgY-LCb2K9eWQSOiXTPd64gqV1rJS_yktqk3ZkAfZlD1y3gYAL6Hq2p6Qcg=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/63GZCSXGr4cwYjJ39) ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/369 "2020-10-31T14:56:24Z")
Thanks for that, those are nice visualizations! ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/370 "2020-10-31T15:31:22Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > As I understand it, they’re based on what 538 has seen in examining previous elections, and the correlation that they see between certain events. As @Northern_Piper notes, the Upper Midwest states tend to be affected by the same sorts of factors (blue-collar employment, for one), and there’s a level of correlation between Wisconsin going red or blue, and its neighboring states doing the same thing. OTOH, the correlation between what happens in Wisconsin and what happens in Arizona, for example, is likely much lower. I think this also explains why Biden is doing better in Wisconsin and Michigan than in Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Michigan are more closely linked as upper mid-Western states. Pennsylvania tracks more closely with Ohio, having some Appalachian country that Wisconsin and Michigan don’t have. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/371 "2020-10-31T15:48:02Z")
Also compare 538’s popular vote projections. 2016 three days out. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/0Z56xiUgIMhLr8QlKYnlQjzx4hp8W8R7Hnl7I1Kc6dSllG-uVu9LD75YWoO3bbDA2wLVaumz-XgXzbo1DeB6DjXzyq5airiN8m3N5bkVFRtdeFdKzHmVlMV5-KGOJ5q_jSrb3Ylcvg=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/6smGqXW3ad7WTsKG6) 2020 three days out. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/umPLmmhmOqgDBW2w6t7QZJ5bM2uc9LBEm0QaU3xsM5hCD4hhQ4WweK10BuBZf-Ic7OctKi7M9yhoGblmf1jiXYsMzFKJ8F9lAL1ckJ4SZfNSQLTIMbplJWJdx4A59SRxX6bMBcyhNA=w600-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/DsxDmGfFuu26AEcn6) Other than predicting the Democrat ahead, these predictions are not remotely similar. Also note: three days before the election 538 projected a 2.9% edge in the popular vote for Clinton. The actual result was Clinton + 2.1%. That’s pretty right on. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/372 "2020-10-31T16:18:36Z")
538’s EV vote calculator tells me: If Biden wins FL or GA or PA or NC early in the evening of the 3rd… Then it’s game over for Trump. We should know FL and GA, as they will be tabulating early votes. NC maybe will not have enough counted votes to make a call on the day. PA probably not, as they will still be counting votes for days. So look to FL and GA on the evening of the 3rd to tell you where things are likely to be going. Warning - Biden may be well ahead early in the evening as mail in and early ballots may be counted first, and these are expected to favor Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/373 "2020-10-31T16:21:27Z")
When was the last time in US history a 10-1 candidate or even 5 to 1, won the election? I can only think of Truman, but I don’t know a lot about elections after Monroe up to TR, except Lincoln. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/374 "2020-10-31T16:27:19Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Warning - Biden may be well ahead early in the evening as mail in and early ballots may be counted first, and these are expected to favor Biden. It’s a good thing to keep in mind. Remember the celebrations happening here in 2016 when afternoon results were coming in for Florida. Things turned in late evening. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/375 "2020-10-31T17:05:03Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Warning - Biden may be well ahead early in the evening as mail in and early ballots may be counted first, and these are expected to favor Biden. At which point the GOP will certainly move to stop the counting and declare Biden the winner of Florida. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/376 "2020-10-31T18:29:17Z")
GOP strategy for individual states: 1. If Trump ahead in the count: Stop counting immediately. Remaining ballots are clearly fraudulent. Get support on this from supreme court. 2. If Trump is behind in the count: Make sure every ballot is counted, no matter how long it takes. Especially important are those that are “found” somewhere by GOP operatives. All ballots are precious. Get support on this from supreme court. Interestingly, I’m pretty sure that they will be able to hold both of these positions simultaneously for different states, and that the Supreme court will be able to find reasoning to support them either way or both ways at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/377 "2020-10-31T18:46:52Z")
> [@Mike\_Mabes](#): > > When was the last time in US history a 10-1 candidate or even 5 to 1, won the election? I can only think of Truman, but I don’t know a lot about elections after Monroe up to TR, except Lincoln. I think Trump in 2016 is the biggest shock since Truman. I think if we had not had 538, we would have all thought Trump had a 95% chance of losing and he did it. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/378 "2020-10-31T22:35:39Z")
Remember, too, that polling was in its infancy in 1948, and IIRC Gallup stopped polling about two weeks out from the election, so certain were they that Dewey was going to win. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/379 "2020-10-31T22:59:29Z")
Yes, I think Trump’s win is the biggest shock since accurate(ish) polling began and polling analysis came along. I know it was 68-32 Clinton, but I thought Clinton had it for sure. The blue wall! I live in Michigan and am ashamed of the state for it going to Trump by 10,000 votes. I do think it will course correct this year and Governor Whitmer will ensure votes are counted. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/380 "2020-10-31T23:11:32Z")
Princeton Election Consortium is predicting 353 electoral votes for Biden. He(they?) were followed a lot last time, but I think he went too far. He made the statement he would eat a bug if Trump got 240 Electoral votes or more. I hope he has made corrections in his analysis and if Trump actually gets 353, it would be amazing. [Here is his site.](https://election.princeton.edu/) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/381 "2020-10-31T23:17:58Z")
[Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) currently has Joe at 356. If take out all the “Barely Dem” states, he’s at 279. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/382 "2020-10-31T23:21:09Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I know it was 68-32 Clinton, but I thought Clinton had it for sure. The blue wall! I heard a show on the radio – pretty sure it was NPR, but I couldn’t find it online when I looked, though it might have been in the middle of some standard report. Anyway, they were saying IIRC that polls used to be reported in terms of the percentage of votes they thought each candidate would get, and at some point some years ago they switched to reporting instead the chance that each candidate would win also expressed as a percentage: but that some people may have seen Clinton given a 70% chance of winning and read it instead as her being expected to get 70% of the vote; so they thought she was sure to get a landslide. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=20)