# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2020, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/22 "2020-08-13T16:30:47Z")
Fivey Fox will do for 538 what Poochie did for the Simpsons. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2020, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/23 "2020-08-13T16:47:08Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > And actually, as someone who’s been previously very impressed with how they display and communicate model results and uncertainty, that display design is absolutely god-awful, just one more “fluff over substance” currently-hip designs where you have to scroll scroll scroll for anything useful - fivey-fox? really?? [This article is pretty interesting.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-designed-the-look-of-our-2020-forecast/) My takeaway is that what made 2016’s interface more useful also made it much easier to misinterpret: a lot of folks saw Clinton’s 71% chance of victory, and misinterpreted it as getting 71% of the vote or something. When Clinton lost, they thought that meant the model was wrong. Now it looks like they’re burying the lede, so that before you get to the number you want (% chance of victory), you have to go through some explanatory graphics. I dunno if they’ll stick to that. It’s pretty annoying, and I hope they change it. But I understand why they’re doing it. ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/24 "2020-08-14T00:56:00Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > Complacency and overconfidence will ensure that win. Cut it out. Is anyone actually complacent or confident? I sure as hell am not, nor is anyone I talk to IRL. We all remember what happened in 2016, when we were so damn sure Hilary would win. Now, I cower in terror. I mean, sure, encouraging poll data is better than something showing Trump winning. But I won’t believe in a Biden win until it happens AND Trump is so out of options to contest it that he’s actually out on January 21. Until then, I remain exceedingly cautious. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/25 "2020-08-14T01:55:15Z")
> [@CairoCarol](#): > > s anyone actually complacent or confident? [This SDMB member sure as hell is.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/26 "2020-08-14T03:00:38Z")
> [@CairoCarol](#): > > Is anyone actually complacent or confident? Timmy is… > [@Who will replace Harris as Senator?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-replace-harris-as-senator/917834/17): > > This thread is kind of moot, isn’t it? Harris will still be Senator this time next year and we all know it. ---
**Author:** ![CairoCarol](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cairocarol/32/3825_2.png) [@CairoCarol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CairoCarol)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/27 "2020-08-14T04:09:17Z")
Heh heh. Indeed. I guess “complacency” exists in various political flavors. Me, I’m not convinced that ANYONE should be complacent. I don’t care if you are sure Trump will win or you are sure Biden will win. Unless you are a Russian operative who has access to information indicating the fix is irrevocably in, you shouldn’t be complacent no matter what you hope or believe. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/28 "2020-08-14T06:03:50Z")
This is true. The Cubs actually won a World Series in my lifetime, so I now officially believe that anything can happen. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/29 "2020-08-14T06:52:36Z")
Not in a single election, since the states’ results are likely to be correlated. If Biden is a 66% favorite in two states, and he wins one of them, then he’s more than 66% likely to win the other one too. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/30 "2020-08-14T14:25:45Z")
I like the new design. I liked the old one too, but it was too crunchy for most people to understand. Probability and statistics are hard to get right and most simply can’t understand the details. Even some professionals got it wrong by ignoring potential correlations among states. The new design is trying to ease the reader into a statistics lesson. Good to try, although I see some problems, which I think I’ll suggest to them. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/31 "2020-08-14T14:39:03Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > Not in a single election, since the states’ results are likely to be correlated. If Biden is a 66% favorite in two states, and he wins one of them, then he’s more than 66% likely to win the other one too. Yeah, and that’s where 538 got it right and everyone else got it wrong. They saw Trump needing to win 4 or 5 states that he only had about a 33% chance in each and figured that there was no chance he could win them all. 538 were pretty much the only ones saying that if he won one of those, he was more likely to win the rest. They’re not independent events. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/32 "2020-08-14T14:52:57Z")
I’ve not really seen the new design but if that’s the reason for changing it, I support that change. A lot of people completely misunderstood Silver’s numbers, but he said consistently that he was working with limited data and that most polling at the state level was within the margin of error, which left room for a Trump win. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/33 "2020-08-14T16:09:27Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Alright folks, Biden’s now up to 7 **2** % > > …it’s going to be a long 4 months. 4 months? The election is now about 2 3/4 months away. Was that a typo, or are you expecting that it will take 1 1/4 months to finish counting the votes? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/34 "2020-08-14T16:10:34Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > 4 months? The election is now about 2 3/4 months away. Was that a typo, or are you expecting that it will take 1 1/4 months to finish counting the votes? Time and space have no meaning in the time of COVID-19. What year is it again? ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/35 "2020-08-14T17:03:12Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The best way to evaluate Silver’s model is [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) or some other equivalent version of root mean squared error. That’s how [Nate checks himself](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/). That’s fair. I was more thinking of a layman’s verification technique. 50 independant predictions where he should get some that hit over longer odds. > [@borschevsky](#): > > Not in a single election, since the states’ results are likely to be correlated. If Biden is a 66% favorite in two states, and he wins one of them, then he’s more than 66% likely to win the other one too. Of course this is also correct, there is a lot of correlation so even 50 samples isn’t independent. Since silver continually tweaks his model I’m not sure how much a comparison between elections is meaningful either. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2020, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/36 "2020-08-14T17:19:29Z")
> [@Oredigger77](#): > > Since silver continually tweaks his model I’m not sure how much a comparison between elections is meaningful either. That’s true, but transparently showing how well calibrated he was in the past gives some confidence in present calibration. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2020, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/37 "2020-08-15T11:41:13Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Was that a typo, or are you expecting that it will take 1 1/4 months to finish counting the votes? It very well could. We’ll probably know the winner well before that (thought there’s a small chance we won’t), but “counting the votes”? Certainly several weeks, and a month isn’t out of the question. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/38 "2020-09-11T20:13:59Z")
Anyone else following the forecast? One interesting thing I’ve noticed is that there’s “spike” in the simulation results around Biden winning 410-420 electoral votes. I call it the “hope spike”. When the model has Biden below about 70% chance of winning, it’s not very likely. However, as Biden goes above about 72% that hope spike becomes the single most likely outcome (that is, the mode, not the mean nor median). I haven’t seen an explanation of this particular effect of the model. I might have missed it. My hope is that if the actual result is that high, the coattails will be strong enough to take the Senate as well. I know not everyone likes to express hope, but I still have some. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2020, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/39 "2020-09-11T20:44:04Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > One interesting thing I’ve noticed is that there’s “spike” in the simulation results around Biden winning 410-420 electoral votes. I call it the “hope spike”. When the model has Biden below about 70% chance of winning, it’s not very likely. However, as Biden goes above about 72% that hope spike becomes the single most likely outcome (that is, the mode, not the mean nor median). > > I haven’t seen an explanation of this particular effect of the model. I might have missed it. My hope is that if the actual result is that high, the coattails will be strong enough to take the Senate as well. I know not everyone likes to express hope, but I still have some. My guess is that effect is due to Texas and it’s 38 electoral votes swinging blue in those scenarios. The other swing states, having closer to 10 EVs, probably make for a smooth curve. When TX flips that makes it look like a large spike. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/40 "2020-09-17T20:12:53Z")
Biden is back up to a 76% chance in the models up from a low of 67% after the GOP convention. This is the highest level he’s been since June (79% max). ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/41 "2020-09-17T22:30:37Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > This is the highest level he’s been since June (79% max). Which is weird because the model was released August 12. I guess they just ran the model backwards to get earlier results. Maybe if they run it back far enough an Obama pops out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=3)