# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/383 "2020-10-31T23:53:42Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > so they thought she was sure to get a landslide. And they didn’t bother to go vote. I think things are very different this year. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/384 "2020-10-31T23:57:59Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > but that some people may have seen Clinton given a 70% chance of winning and read it instead as her being expected to get 70% of the vote; so they thought she was sure to get a landslide. I do think Clinton could have cleared 55%. I was stunned she got only 3 million more than him. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > And they didn’t bother to go vote. > > I think things are very different this year. Is there any evidence that people did not vote in 2016? I want that to be true so much. Mainly, I just think that if it is, people are SUPER DEFINITELY voting this year. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/385 "2020-11-01T00:48:02Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Is there any evidence that people did not vote in 2016? [https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/386 "2020-11-01T00:50:01Z")
Thank you! How many that did not vote were going for Clinton? Had to be a ton, I’d think. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/387 "2020-11-01T00:54:29Z")
Anecdotally, a LOT of men did not vote for Clinton, strictly based on her sex. (some women too) . ---
**Author:** ![Author\_Balk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Author\_Balk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Author_Balk)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/388 "2020-11-01T13:12:08Z")
The charts showing popular vote percentage for 4 years ago vs. this year has Trump with 45.5 percent in both years. The difference is that Biden gets the 4.5 percent that Gary Johnson had. And if my math is right, if you took Johnson + Clinton, the states that would have switched to Clinton are. Florida Michigan Nebraska (2) Pennsylvania Wisconsin ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/389 "2020-11-01T14:02:49Z")
What is amazing (kind of, but not really, but yes) is that counting all the votes has become a partisan idea of the radical left. We are truly in the era of Republicans abandoning democracy. It is actually kind of sad and pathetic. I hope the Democrats start labelling Republicans as anti-democratic. They’ve earned it. It my hope (ha! I’m an idiot) that any non-authoritarian Republican supporters realize they’re voting for: 1 - Gun rights with a side order of authoritarianism 2 - Anti-abortion with a side order of authoritarianism 3 - Lower taxes for the super rich (they really appreciate this) with a side order of authoritarianism And so on. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/390 "2020-11-01T15:23:52Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I know it was 68-32 Clinton, but I thought Clinton had it for sure. The blue wall! I find it interesting that nobody talks about the blue wall this year. Scars from 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/391 "2020-11-01T15:32:08Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > What is amazing (kind of, but not really, but yes) is that counting all the votes has become a partisan idea of the radical left. We are truly in the era of Republicans abandoning democracy. It’s been a talking point for years that “America is a republic, not a democracy.” It’s becoming clear that they really mean it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/392 "2020-11-01T15:33:13Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > I find it interesting that nobody talks about the blue wall this year. You are responding to a post about the blue wall. There’s a ton posts about the blue wall. Also, there’s a whole thread about the blue wall: [Why is PA the most competitive blue wall state?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pa-the-most-competitive-blue-wall-state/920857). ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/393 "2020-11-01T15:38:23Z")
I guess I was thinking about 538 and national news sites. I admit to skipping over the PA thread. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/394 "2020-11-01T15:43:43Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > I guess I was thinking about 538 and national news sites. I admit to skipping over the PA thread… Checking the New York Times, at least 6 articles in just the past 2 days mention the “blue wall.” ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/395 "2020-11-01T16:06:52Z")
NC votes are out later now because they no longer send votes electronically to county board of elections due to fear of hacking . They drive the data modules for each precinct and upload the data directly to the county system. That takes a lot longer. Full vote in NC may not be out until 11 pm eastern ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/396 "2020-11-01T16:35:15Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > I find it interesting that nobody talks about the blue wall this year. Scars from 2016. Yeah, it’s been out there. I see a lot of “Joe Biden is doing his best to repair the blue wall” type articles. I think he can do it, but I am worried about Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/397 "2020-11-02T14:37:34Z")
This morning we are back to 90/10 Biden but it says “clearly favored”. For whatever reason, it was fun to see. They will freeze the board at midnight (Eastern?). ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/398 "2020-11-02T16:30:17Z")
They’re rounding off the decimals so that the numbers don’t exactly match the “clearly” call. The range 89.5 - 90.4 gets reported as “90”, but below the 90.0 cutoff gets “favored” and above 90.0 gets “clearly favored”. The last few updates this morning have bobbled right around the cutoff and added and dropped the “clearly” a few times. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/399 "2020-11-02T16:55:10Z")
Yeah, the writeup says “you might have noticed that the forecast headline now says he’s ‘clearly favored’ rather than ‘favored,’” but the headline I’m actually seeing just says “favored.” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/400 "2020-11-02T17:40:46Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > They’re rounding off the decimals so that the numbers don’t exactly match the “clearly” call. The range 89.5 - 90.4 gets reported as “90”, but below the 90.0 cutoff gets “favored” and above 90.0 gets “clearly favored”. The last few updates this morning have bobbled right around the cutoff and added and dropped the “clearly” a few times. The best I have seen in 90/9/1 but it’s mostly been 90/10 all morning, not that I have been refreshing that page every minute. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/401 "2020-11-02T17:41:21Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > not that I have been refreshing that page every minute. Perish the thought! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/402 "2020-11-02T17:47:38Z")
> [@Mike\_Mabes](#): > > When was the last time in US history a 10-1 candidate or even 5 to 1, won the election? I can only think of Truman, but I don’t know a lot about elections after Monroe up to TR, except Lincoln. There’s no way to know because we cannot figure out in retrospect what the odds really were. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=21)