# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out!

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 22

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**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/423 "2020-11-04T13:31:54Z")

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We had armed men blocking a ballot drop box in Oregon. So yes, we will.

> **[Oregon Legal Groups Say Armed Militia Intimidated Lane County Voters at the...](https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2020/11/02/oregon-legal-groups-say-armed-militia-groups-intimidated-lane-county-voters-at-the-ballot-box/)**
>
> “The voter was concerned for his safety and, rather than proceeding to the drop box, instead left without depositing his ballot.”

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**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/424 "2020-11-04T13:35:30Z")

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> [@TroutMan](#):
>
> We had armed men blocking a ballot drop box in Oregon.

And one got arrested in North Carolina. Ostensibly for trespassing but if he hadn’t been openly carrying…

> **[Armed Former GOP Candidate Arrested for Trespassing at North Carolina Polling...](https://www.thedailybeast.com/armed-north-carolina-man-justin-dunn-arrested-after-allegedly-intimidating-voters-at-polling-place)**
>
> Authorities said Justin Dunn, a Trump supporter, had been banned from the site for “possibly intimidating other voters.”

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**Author:** ![Asuka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@Asuka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asuka)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/425 "2020-11-04T17:08:15Z")

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That wasn’t the widespread violence or intimidation people in this very thread predicted, remember we had the Black Panthers outside polls incident in 2008 as well which people here at the time called an isolated incident and these new cases seem to fit that mode.

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**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/426 "2020-11-04T17:16:07Z")

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Wait until January before calling on the lack of violence, I think.

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**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/427 "2020-11-04T18:43:39Z")

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I sure wish Biden had decisively won more of those leaning-blue states. His path to the White House looks a lot narrower than it did a week ago.

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