# FiveThirtyEight's election forecast is out! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2020, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890 "2020-08-12T15:01:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/62 "2020-09-24T15:54:21Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > This was all on purpose, to slow the viewer down so that, by the time they get to the bottom, they understand what “Biden currently wins 77 of every 100 times we run the model” MEANS. Yeah, I don’t think the stupid fox mascot’s gonna help. > [@chappachula](#): > > So despite all the dry and detailed scientific analysis by highly qualified people at 538…there is one huge fact that is being overlooked-because it is unknown and untestable: :the number of ballots that will not be counted. 538 has clearly stated they realize vote suppression and cheating is a possible factor and that they can’t accurately account for it, so it’s not as if they haven’t admitted this deficiency. > [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > If Candidate X wins and people say “You were right,” he DOESN’T say “No I wasn’t,” he sells his website to NYT. But the reason he doesn’t say that is because that would be false. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/63 "2020-09-24T16:02:23Z")
Yeah, I get it. I’m just not a fan of the concept. It doesn’t tell me anything I can’t see just by looking at the poll data itself and it doesn’t move any differently than the poll data itself. It’s superfluous. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/64 "2020-09-24T16:04:09Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > If Candidate X wins and people say “You were right,” he DOESN’T say “No I wasn’t,” he sells his website to NYT. > [@RickJay](#): > > But the reason he doesn’t say that is because that would be false. He publishes probabilities. He can never be right OR wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/65 "2020-09-24T16:13:32Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > He publishes probabilities. He can never be right OR wrong. I have posted this in response to you before, but I’ll try again since I guess I’m a slow learner… There are well known methods of evaluating probabilistic forecasts. The [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) is one such method. One can easily compare 538’s forecast to any other forecast with this method to determine which had more value. In fact, this is how 538 checks its own work… [How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/) ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/66 "2020-09-24T16:17:58Z")
Yeah I read it the first time. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/67 "2020-09-24T16:33:34Z")
In that case, here’s some more suggested reading. [Some Do’s And Don’t’s For Evaluating Senate Forecasts](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/some-dos-and-donts-for-evaluating-senate-forecasts/) ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/68 "2020-09-24T20:26:23Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > He publishes probabilities. He can never be right OR wrong. Again, that’s only if you look at each race as a “Yes/No” outcome. Look at say, the race for Pennsylvania: > **[2020 Election Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/)** > > Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight He’s predicted Biden to win, with a range of votes. If the final vote is 60% Biden, he’s still wrong even though Biden wins because it’s way outside the range. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2020, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/69 "2020-09-24T23:36:31Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > He publishes probabilities. He can never be right OR wrong. Of course he can. You can simply compare the probabilities he comes up with against performance. You can compare his vote total estimates against performance. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/70 "2020-09-25T03:59:20Z")
**ThisIsTheEnd** apparently knows this, and continues to say nonsense like, ‘Silver can’t be wrong because probabilities derp derp’ anyway. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/71 "2020-09-25T12:55:46Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > It doesn’t tell me anything I can’t see just by looking at the poll data itself and it doesn’t move any differently than the poll data itself. It’s superfluous There’s some truth to this. I think of 538 as a sophisticated, well-informed means to help me process the polls as they come out — to better understand what the polls mean, especially regarding what’s likely or not likely to happen on November 3. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/72 "2020-09-25T12:57:06Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > He’s predicted Biden to win, with a range of votes. If the final vote is 60% Biden, he’s still wrong even though Biden wins because it’s way outside the range This is so incorrect, I don’t even know where to begin. Sigh. The human brain just isn’t very good at digesting probability. ETA: I think I misunderstood your point. Let’s try to be clear about this (and to RickyJay, too): Best not to use “right” or “wrong” in this context. If Trump got every single vote in Pennsylvania (or Biden did), Nate would still not be “wrong.” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/73 "2020-09-25T13:06:07Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Let’s try to be clear about this (and to RickyJay, too): Best not to use “right” or “wrong” in this context. If Trump got every single vote in Pennsylvania (or Biden did), Nate would still not be “wrong. Such a bizarre outcome would be a point against him though. The effectiveness of Silver’s models absolutely can be judged to be right or wrong, but not based on one result; they can be judged based on many results. For instance, suppose you took all his state-level predictions for Presidential elections and then judged them against results, and found that almost all of them fell within his predicted confidence interval (which in fact is the case.) That demonstrates his models are right. If instead you found that his predictions in most cases were far off, that would demonstrate his model is wrong. ONE miss wouldn’t show that, but many misses would. AlsoNamedBot’s example is actually quite right. If on Election Day, Biden is predicted to get 51% of the popular vote to Trump’s 46, and instead it’s 60-36, Silver’s model didn’t work well at all. That would be way outside his confidence interval. (I think you erroneously believe Also was referring to a 60% probability of victory. He was not.) Or else how would YOU judge the effectiveness of his models? ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/74 "2020-09-25T13:08:22Z")
DraftKings should get into this biz and set up a competitor site touting a buncha ‘big data secret sauce derp derp’ and just take 538’s probabilities and change them by 1 point. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/75 "2020-09-25T13:16:54Z")
If you’re trying to demonstrate that you understand this, you aren’t helping your case. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/76 "2020-09-25T13:18:34Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > DraftKings should get into this biz and set up a competitor site touting a buncha ‘big data secret sauce derp derp’ and just take 538’s probabilities and change them by 1 point. That isn’t how market betting works. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/77 "2020-09-25T13:44:38Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Or else how would YOU judge the effectiveness of his models? I’m not trying to judge the effectiveness of his models, I don’t care about them. I’m commenting on the oiliness of his marketing and the deflections of he and his fanbois. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/78 "2020-09-25T13:47:43Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > (I think you erroneously believe Also was referring to a 60% probability of victory. He was not.) No, I got it. It comes down to semantics, I suppose. I agree with your wording — that such an outcome would show Nate’s model to be “problematic,” or “have issues,” or maybe even “faulty” — but still not WRONG. Maybe it’s just me, but I prefer to reserve that word for things that simply do not apply in any probabilistic approach. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/79 "2020-09-25T20:04:01Z")
How about, “Indicates that there is a strong likelihood that his modeling assumptions are incorrect”. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/80 "2020-09-25T20:13:23Z")
I like it! (Even better, soften it to “SOME modeling assumptions might be incorrect”… but even that’s not quite right — a lot of it is about how much UNCERTAINTY does the model express to be likely…and his models always account for at least SOME …so, a very small degree of uncertainty could be one of those “incorrect assumptions,” but not this year — due to COVID and other factors, Biden’s chances in the model will never be super-high, almost whatever the polls say, even on Nov 2) ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890/81 "2020-09-25T20:39:21Z")
I agree that this year is a very bad year to evaluate Nate’s predictive accuracy. His model by necessity ignores some potentially very large effects that can’t be accounted for because they are unique to this year and can’t be accounted for (even Hari Seldon couldn’t forsee the Mule). But putting up a website whose title is “We don’t know squat” is not going to generate a lot of clicks, so he wisely gives us what he can and acknowledges his limitations. Regarding the use of the Briar score, it is a good way of comparing competing models, but it can’t necessarily be used to say whether an individual model in and of itself is correct. A pure “we don’t know squat” model, that leaves all outcomes as equally likely ,can’t be disproved no matter what the data. However, it can be shown to be inferior to a model that actually takes the risk of making some probabilistic predictions and having them pan out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeights-election-forecast-is-out/917890.md?page=5)